The Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series at Rogers Centre on Friday night behind a pitcher who knows the building well. Chris Bassitt spent three seasons with Toronto before signing with Baltimore in February. The Blue Jays sit one game out of the final American League wild-card spot, and Baltimore is three back. Toronto is priced at -126, however the sharper move here has come somewhere other than the side.
Last Updated: Friday, September 11, 2026
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| When | Friday, September 11 – 7:07 PM ET |
| TV | MASN / Sportsnet |
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Start with the arms, because both look worse on paper than they have pitched. Bassitt brings a 4.96 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. Max Scherzer counters at 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA. Both lines mislead. Bassitt has allowed 14 earned runs in 29 innings over his last five starts, a 4.34 mark. Scherzer has given up 13 in 26.2 innings over his last five, a 4.39 mark. Scherzer’s season figure is inflated by an April in which he surrendered 19 earned runs in 12.2 innings.
Both arrive on six days of rest, having last pitched September 5. Scherzer’s best outing came August 30: seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Seattle. Bassitt is the opposite of overpowering, with 102 hits allowed in 85.1 innings against 61 strikeouts. Still, he handled this lineup on May 28, allowing one run over six innings.
The records are nearly identical. Toronto is 73-74 and 37-35 at home, while Baltimore is 71-76 and 35-37 on the road. Form diverges, with the Blue Jays 6-4 in their last 10 and the Orioles 3-7. Meanwhile Baltimore holds the better run differential and has scored 661 runs to Toronto’s 589. Cleveland owns the last wild-card berth at 74-73, leaving Toronto one game back and Baltimore three back. Our recent Toronto coverage has more.
Health matters on both sides. Toronto is starting Scherzer partly because Jameson Taillon, Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage are all on the injured list. Baltimore is missing Tyler O’Neill, Luis Robert Jr. and Ryan Mountcastle. More important in a close game, the Orioles are without high-leverage relievers Félix Bautista and Ryan Helsley, as our latest Baltimore coverage noted.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | +1.5 (-195) | +106 | U 8.0 (-110) |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 (+165) | -126 | O 8.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, September 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Orioles | 45% | 55% | Blue Jays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Surprising Pitcher’s Duel?
The market has already made a statement here. This game opened at 8.5 with the under at -115. It now sits at 8.0 with both sides at -110. That is a half-run move down through a key number, and the juice flattened rather than chasing it. Run totals cluster tightly in baseball, so that half-run is real rather than cosmetic.
The underlying baseball supports that direction. Neither starter has been a home-run problem lately, with Bassitt allowing three over his last five starts and Scherzer one. Six days of rest argues for a normal workload rather than a quick hook, and both bullpens were idle Thursday. Toronto also owns the weaker offense at roughly four runs per game.
The case against is not trivial. Bassitt’s 1.58 WHIP means base traffic, and traffic is how multi-run innings start. Scherzer has issued 27 walks in 62.2 innings, producing long innings of his own. Baltimore also scored six, five and nine runs in its last series, so the cold stretch may be over.
The Pick: Under 8.0 (-110)
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Does Public Have Right Side?
The side market tells a different story than the total. Toronto opened at -121 and has been bid up to -126, with 71 percent of moneyline tickets on the Blue Jays. That is movement with the public rather than against it, which is not a sharp signal. Notably, the run-line split sits near even at 55-45, so the lopsided ticket count reads as backing a home team to win rather than conviction on a number.
Strip the price back and these are two clubs separated by two games. Baltimore has outscored Toronto by 72 runs this season, and its starter holds the slightly better recent ERA. Toronto, in contrast, leans on a 42-year-old with a 6.03 ERA because three rotation arms are unavailable. The counter-case is live, though. The Blue Jays have the healthier bullpen, they are 6-4 in their last 10, and they have more at stake one game out. That is why this reads as a lean rather than a conviction play.
The Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+106)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Both positions rest on the same low-scoring projection, and saying so is more useful than dressing them up as independent reads. If this lands in the 3-2 or 4-3 range, they cash together. If either starter unravels early, both suffer.
Two things to watch. First, Scherzer’s leash. He threw 97 pitches on August 30 but only 76 in his last outing, so an early hook turns this into a bullpen game. Second, Baltimore’s middle innings. Without Bautista and Helsley, the Orioles must bridge the sixth through the eighth with lesser arms, and that is where a one-run lead flips.
Picks recap: Under 8.0 (-110) and Orioles Moneyline (+106).
MLB Orioles vs. Blue Jays FAQ: Friday September 11, 2026
What time does the Orioles vs. Blue Jays game start?
First pitch is 7:07 PM ET on Friday, September 11, 2026, at Rogers Centre in Toronto. It opens a three-game weekend series. Saturday’s game follows at 3:07 PM ET, and Sunday’s finale is set for 1:37 PM ET.
What channel is the Orioles vs. Blue Jays game on?
The game airs on MASN for Baltimore viewers and on Sportsnet in Canada. It is also carried on MLB.TV and MLB Extra Innings. No national over-the-air or cable broadcast is scheduled, so availability depends on your regional package.
Who is pitching for the Blue Jays tonight?
Right-hander Max Scherzer is Toronto’s listed probable starter, carrying a 2-7 record with a 6.03 ERA and 48 strikeouts. Baltimore counters with right-hander Chris Bassitt, who is 6-5 with a 4.96 ERA and 61 strikeouts.
Who won the last meeting between the Orioles and Blue Jays?
Toronto won the last meeting 6-4 on June 7 at Rogers Centre. That result gave the Blue Jays the June series two games to one. Toronto leads the 2026 season series between the clubs four games to three heading into this weekend.
Where do the Orioles and Blue Jays stand in the wild-card race?
Cleveland holds the final American League wild-card spot at 74-73. Toronto is one game back at 73-74, and Baltimore is three games back at 71-76. Both clubs trail Tampa Bay by double digits in the AL East, so the wild card is the realistic path.