The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season reaches its finish line today at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca, and it opens with a surprise on the front row. Newly crowned five-time champion Alex Palou is the betting favorite for the Mission Foods Grand Prix of Monterey, yet he does not start on pole. Scott McLaughlin edged Palou by 0.018 seconds in qualifying to claim the top spot. That sets up a fascinating race-day puzzle: back the dominant champion at a short price, or take the value on the driver leading the field to the green flag. Below are our picks to win, a value play, and additional race-day angles from the board at TheSpread.com.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026
Mission Foods Grand Prix of Monterey — Time & How to Watch
| Where | WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca, Monterey, CA |
| When | Sunday, September 6 – 2:30 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
2026 Grand Prix of Monterey Betting Preview
McLaughlin delivered the pole with a lap of 1:09.136, denying Palou a ninth career pole by less than two hundredths of a second. The run also gave Chevrolet its 250th pole in series history. Felix Rosenqvist qualified third for Meyer Shank Racing, and Alexander Rossi put his Ed Carpenter Racing entry fourth. That front-two-row order holds as the field rolls off across 95 laps of the 2.238-mile road course.
The rest of the top 10 features David Malukas fifth, Kyle Kirkwood sixth, Marcus Ericsson seventh, Kyffin Simpson eighth, Marcus Armstrong ninth, and Louis Foster 10th. One important caveat reshapes the grid. Christian Lundgaard qualified among the top five but serves a six-place penalty for an engine change, so he starts 11th despite sitting second in the championship standings. Pato O’Ward, fresh off a red-hot Milwaukee weekend, will line up just outside the top 10.
There is emotion in the field as well. Scott Dixon runs his final race with Chip Ganassi Racing after 25 seasons, though a qualifying result deep in the field leaves him with work to do. Track position matters at Laguna Seca, where clean air and pit timing often decide the result more than raw speed. That backdrop frames every pick below.
Mission Foods Grand Prix of Monterey — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alex Palou | -225 |
| Scott McLaughlin | +600 |
| Christian Lundgaard | +700 |
| Felix Rosenqvist | +800 |
| Kyle Kirkwood | +900 |
| David Malukas | +1400 |
| Pato O’Ward | +2000 |
| Marcus Ericsson | +2000 |
| Alexander Rossi | +2500 |
| Will Power | +3500 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, September 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest IndyCar Odds – Props
2026 IndyCar Grand Prix of Monterey Best Bets:
The Pick: Alex Palou to win (-225)
Palou already wrapped up his fifth series championship at Milwaukee, his fourth in a row, with a race to spare. That security could cut two ways, but his season has been relentless, and he has no reason to coast now. He also won this race a year ago, so his Chip Ganassi Honda has proven pace at Laguna Seca. Starting second, he sits within striking distance of the lead into Turn 2 and holds the tiebreaker on race craft over nearly everyone in the field.
The case against is the price. At -225, Palou carries an implied probability near 69 percent, which leaves little margin if the race turns on strategy or a late caution. He also did not have the fastest car in qualifying, and McLaughlin controls the race from the front. Still, when the most complete driver in the series starts on the front row at a track he won last year, he is the logical pick to win. The reward is modest, but the profile is strong.
2026 IndyCar Grand Prix of Monterey Value Play
The Pick: Scott McLaughlin to win (+600)
McLaughlin offers roughly three times the return of Palou, and he does it from the best seat on the grid. This is his third pole of the season, and he finished second in both Milwaukee races, so the Team Penske pace is real. Pole position matters more at Laguna Seca than at most venues. Clean air, first pit-lane priority, and control of the early restarts all favor the driver out front. If McLaughlin converts track position into an early gap, he can dictate the strategy cycle.
The counterpoint is conversion. McLaughlin has led before without closing, and Palou is right behind him with a faster racecraft profile in traffic. A slow stop or a poorly timed yellow erases a front-row start in seconds. However, at +600 the price pays for that risk. Backing the pole-sitter who has been the class of qualifying is a defensible value angle against a heavy favorite.
2026 Grand Prix of Monterey Race Day Outlook — Final Thoughts
Two secondary markets stand out on the board. In the manufacturer market, Honda is favored at -225 with Chevrolet at +170. Honda stacks Palou, Rosenqvist, Kirkwood, and Malukas across the front of the grid, so the favorite is well supported. The value case sits with Chevrolet at +170, since McLaughlin starts on pole and O’Ward brings momentum. We lean Honda, but Chevy’s plus price is understandable given who sits first.
The head-to-head board also offers a track-position play. Kyle Kirkwood is priced at -110 against Pato O’Ward at -120 in their matchup. Kirkwood starts sixth while O’Ward, who swept the Milwaukee doubleheader, lines up outside the top 10. Passing is difficult at Laguna Seca, so the six-plus spots of starting cushion give Kirkwood the edge. The risk is obvious: O’Ward is the hotter driver right now and could carve forward quickly. At -110, though, we like Kirkwood’s grid advantage.
Expect fuel windows and one or two full-course cautions to shape the closing laps. The driver who controls track position through the middle stint usually banks the biggest advantage. Watch the undercut battle on the first cycle of stops. Here is the full pick summary. First, Alex Palou to win at -225. Second, Scott McLaughlin to win at +600 as the value play. Third, Kyle Kirkwood over Pato O’Ward in the head-to-head at -110. Fourth, Honda as the winning manufacturer at -225.
2026 Grand Prix of Monterey Betting FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Grand Prix of Monterey?
Alex Palou is the betting favorite at -225 via TheSpread.com. The newly crowned five-time champion won this race in 2025 and starts second at Laguna Seca.
Who is on pole for the 2026 Grand Prix of Monterey?
Scott McLaughlin won the pole with a lap of 1:09.136, edging Alex Palou by 0.018 seconds. It was the 250th pole in series history for Chevrolet.
When is the 2026 Grand Prix of Monterey?
The Mission Foods Grand Prix of Monterey runs on Sunday, September 6, 2026, with a start time of 2:30 PM ET at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca.
What channel is the 2026 Grand Prix of Monterey on?
The 2026 Mission Foods Grand Prix of Monterey will be broadcast on FOX.
How many laps is the 2026 Grand Prix of Monterey?
The race is scheduled for 95 laps around the 2.238-mile road course, a total distance of 212.61 miles.
Who won the Grand Prix of Monterey last year?
Alex Palou won the 2025 Grand Prix of Monterey at Laguna Seca. Christian Lundgaard and Colton Herta completed the podium.
For the market preview of this same race, see our 2026 Grand Prix of Monterey odds breakdown.