Italian Grand Prix predictions rarely land with the betting board this scrambled, but that is the puzzle waiting at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Pierre Gasly ripped a sensational maiden pole position out of an Alpine, and the whole market reshuffled behind him. Below are the handicapping, the value, and five best bets for the Temple of Speed.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026
2026 Italian Grand Prix — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Monza, Italy |
| When | Sunday, September 6 – 9:00 AM ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
2026 Italian Grand Prix Betting Preview
Monza is a permanent road course and the fastest circuit on the calendar, 5.793 km per lap over 53 laps for a 306.720 km distance. The layout rewards a slippery, low-downforce car and hands bettors real overtaking, with slipstreams keeping the field connected so grid position matters less here than almost anywhere. This is a standard weekend, not a sprint, and it lands with Kimi Antonelli leading the Drivers’ Championship by 59 points. Qualifying flipped the script. Gasly took pole ahead of George Russell and Oscar Piastri, while engine-component penalties for Antonelli, Liam Lawson and Alex Albon dropped all three to the back. Lando Norris was the biggest casualty, managing only ninth after brake trouble.
The betting angle is the movement itself. When the companion F1 Italian Grand Prix Odds preview posted earlier in the week, Norris sat on top of the board as the market favorite. After Saturday, the whole thing turned over. Russell shortened into a clear -120 favorite off the front row, and Mercedes leads the winning-car market at -145. Gasly’s shock pole pulled him in to +1200, while Norris drifted to +1600 once he qualified ninth and slotted into the midfield. Antonelli’s penalty pushed the points leader out to +2000.
2026 Italian Grand Prix — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| George Russell | -120 |
| Charles Leclerc | +400 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 |
| Pierre Gasly | +1200 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1400 |
| Lando Norris | +1600 |
| Max Verstappen | +1600 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +2000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +15000 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +20000 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, September 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest F1 Odds – Props
2026 Italian Grand Prix: Our Best Bets For Monza
George Russell (-120) is the pick to win, and this is not a reflexive tap on the favorite. Russell starts second, directly behind an Alpine that grabbed pole on a single low-drag lap but is very unlikely to hold that pace across 53 green-flag laps. Mercedes has been the class of the 2026 field: Antonelli leads the championship, Russell sits second with multiple wins, and the winning-car market backs the team at -145. The market agrees, pricing second place as the slot most likely to produce the winner — the car that clears Gasly early into clean air.
The case against starts with the price. At -120 there is little margin, and Russell still has to pass Gasly, the favorite to lead after lap one. Ferrari brings a home threat with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton on the second and third rows, and Norris arrives on a two-race winning streak. Still, the quickest car with clean track position is the most defensible outcome on the board.
2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix Predictions: Mid-Tier Value Plays
Max Verstappen (+1600) is the outright worth a look from the middle of the board. Monza is Red Bull’s kind of track, and Verstappen won here last year from pole in the fastest race in F1 history. He starts sixth, but there is no better venue to make that up. The downside is Red Bull’s dip in 2026 form: Verstappen crashed out of the Dutch Grand Prix and needs a clean launch and cooperation from the cars ahead. At +1600 the price pays for that risk.
Lando Norris (-110, to beat Oscar Piastri) is the head-to-head play, a straight race match-up between the McLaren teammates. Norris starts eighth to Piastri’s third, but the form gap runs the other way. Norris has won the last two Grands Prix, most recently a dramatic victory at Zandvoort, while Piastri crashed out of both Hungary and the Netherlands. Taking the in-form driver at essentially even money over a teammate in a slump is value, and Monza’s long DRS zones give Norris room to erase the grid deficit. The risk is track position: if the brake issue lingers or Norris gets stuck in traffic, Piastri’s cleaner start holds.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 Italian Grand Prix
Kimi Antonelli (+2000) is the boldest outright on the card because the championship leader starts at the very back after an engine penalty. The path is genuine, though: he has the fastest race car in the field, Monza is the best track on the calendar for slicing through traffic, and he arrives on a second at Zandvoort and a third in Hungary. One safety car and a long stint on fresher tyres could turn the recovery into a shock win. The case against is obvious — starting last is an enormous ask, and tyre wear in dirty air can cap the climb.
Pierre Gasly (+550, to finish third) is the long-shot podium angle: a bet on the polesitter clinging to the final step. Gasly is the favorite to lead after the opening lap, and if he holds track position through the first stint or a safety car freezes the order, an Alpine podium at Monza is live. The case against is the same logic that makes Russell the pick: over a full race the faster Mercedes, Ferraris and Red Bull should reel Gasly in. But from pole, a third-place break-right result is plausible at a fair number.
2026 Italian Grand Prix Final Thoughts: What to Watch
Everything at Monza starts with the run to the Rettifilo chicane, where Gasly must defend into Turn 1 off a low-grip pole. Watch whether Russell clears him early to justify his favoritism, and whether the Ferraris use the long straights to threaten from behind. The deeper intrigue sits at the back, where Antonelli and the other penalized runners scythe forward through the slipstream on a track where a one-stop keeps track position king. The handicap points to Russell and Mercedes race pace, with Verstappen and a resurgent Norris the value swings and Gasly the wildcard. Norris carried momentum out of the Dutch Grand Prix, and that form is the thread to watch in one of the more open Italian Grands Prix in years.
F1 Italian Grand Prix FAQ: Sunday September 6, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the Italian Grand Prix?
George Russell is the favorite at -120 via TheSpread.com. He starts second on the grid behind polesitter Pierre Gasly, and Mercedes leads the winning-car market at -145 after a strong 2026 campaign that has Kimi Antonelli atop the Drivers’ Championship.
What time does the Italian Grand Prix start?
The 2026 Italian Grand Prix goes green at 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, September 6, 2026. That corresponds to 15:00 local time at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza, making it one of the easier European rounds for U.S. viewers to catch live.
What channel is the Italian Grand Prix on?
Apple TV carries the 2026 Italian Grand Prix in the United States. Apple became the exclusive U.S. home of Formula 1 in 2026, replacing ESPN, so every session at Monza streams through the Apple TV app rather than on traditional cable.
How many laps is the Italian Grand Prix?
The Italian Grand Prix runs 53 laps of the 5.793 km Autodromo Nazionale Monza, a total race distance of 306.720 km. Monza is a permanent road course and the fastest circuit on the F1 calendar, nicknamed the Temple of Speed for its long straights.
Who is on pole for the Italian Grand Prix?
Pierre Gasly claimed pole position for Alpine, the first pole of his Formula 1 career. He edged George Russell by 0.060 seconds with a lap of 1:21.786, with Oscar Piastri qualifying third for McLaren.
Who won the Italian Grand Prix last year?
Max Verstappen won the 2025 Italian Grand Prix for Red Bull, leading from pole to complete the fastest race in Formula 1 history. He returns to Monza this year starting sixth on the grid after qualifying behind the Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren runners.