The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres meet in the middle game of a three-game set at Petco Park on Saturday. Friday ended in a 3-2 Padres walk-off that needed 10 innings to produce five runs. The rematch is priced close to a coin flip, with San Diego at -113 and New York at -107. Two left-handed starters and a quiet run environment push our headline play toward the total.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Petco Park, San Diego, California |
| When | Saturday, September 5 – 7:15 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Carlos Rodón takes the ball for New York. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across 12 starts, with 63 strikeouts in 59 innings. Opponents are batting .187 against him. The catch is volume, not quality. Rodón returned from the injured list on August 18 and has made three starts since: four innings at Baltimore, four against Toronto, then 4.2 against Boston. He allowed four earned runs total in those 12.2 innings. The stuff is playing. He simply has not worked deep yet.
San Diego counters with Robbie Ray, also a lefty. Ray is 11-7 with a 3.14 ERA over 149 innings between San Francisco and San Diego, with 126 strikeouts and a 1.302 WHIP. However, the command has been loose all year. He has issued 73 walks, a rate of 4.4 per nine. In five starts for the Padres he owns a 3.42 ERA across 26.1 innings, per his Baseball Reference game log. Traffic is the risk with him, not hard contact.
The lineup context matters more than usual. New York is without Aaron Judge, who is working back from a stress fracture in his first rib and targeting the club’s next homestand. Giancarlo Stanton remains out with a left calf strain suffered on August 20. Reliever Fernando Cruz is also gone with a partially torn elbow ligament, per the club’s injury and roster tracker. Trent Grisham left Friday’s game with right hamstring discomfort. Ben Rice, who leads the team with 36 homers, is carrying a heavy load.
Form points in opposite directions. New York is 80-61 and 6-4 over its last 10. San Diego is 74-67 and just 3-7 in that stretch. Still, Luis Campusano’s two-run homer in the 10th on Friday moved the Padres a half-game clear of Arizona for the final National League wild-card spot. That was their second win in seven games.
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | +1.5 (-225) | -107 | U 7.5 (-105) |
| Padres | -1.5 (+185) | -113 | O 7.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, September 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 63% | 37% | Padres |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Yankees vs. Padres Prediction — Does Petco Punish Two Thin Lineups?
Start with the venue, because it does more work here than any single player. Petco Park sits among the most run-suppressing environments in the majors, and the marine air near the water is a standing feature of the park rather than a one-night condition. A 7.5 in San Diego is not a 7.5 in a launching pad.
Now layer in the bats. New York is missing Judge and Stanton, its two most dangerous run producers, against a left-hander. Grisham’s hamstring adds another outfield question. San Diego has its own problem: the Padres have won twice in seven games and needed 10 innings to scratch out three runs Friday. Both starters prevent runs well. Rodón is holding hitters to a .187 average, and Ray carries a 3.14 ERA.
The market has moved the same way. The under opened at +105 and now sits at -105, a 10-cent move, while the over came down from -125 to -115. That is one-directional money on the under, and it confirms the read. The counter-case is real, though. Rodón has not finished five innings since returning, so the Yankees will likely need four or five innings from relievers. Ray’s 4.4 walks per nine can shorten his own night. Two bullpens working long is how a low total gets beaten.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Yankees vs. Padres Prediction — Why Is the Public Side Not Moving the Number?
The betting splits tell a quieter story than the price does. Roughly 63% of run-line tickets and 65% of moneyline tickets sit on New York. Yet the moneyline has barely responded. The Yankees opened at -103 and sit at -107, a four-cent nudge, and San Diego is still the nominal favorite. The run line also flipped: New York opened as the -1.5 side at +165, and San Diego now holds -1.5 at +185. When a clear majority backs one team and the number refuses to follow, the money is usually elsewhere.
The baseball supports a modest lean the same way. San Diego is home, it faces a starter capped near four innings, and it does not have to solve Judge or Stanton. The case against is equally plain. The Padres are the worse team by record, they are 3-7 in their last 10, and their offense is the reason. Mason Miller also threw two innings Friday, covering the ninth and 10th, which raises a question about the back of the San Diego bullpen. This is a lean built on a market read, not a mismatch. It rests on the same low-scoring premise as the play above.
The Pick: Padres Moneyline (-113)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing moment is the fifth inning. Rodón has not been stretched past 4.2 innings in three starts back, so the Yankees bullpen is likely in the game early. Watch how New York bridges the sixth through eighth without Cruz. Will Warren recorded seven outs without a hit Friday, which may limit him.
Also track Ray’s first trip through the order. His walk rate is the loose thread in the under. Two or three early free passes pull San Diego’s relievers forward into a game that already taxed them. Neither play here is a mismatch, and both can lose without anything strange happening.
For more from Saturday’s slate, see today’s Giants-Mets prediction, and our recent Angels-Pirates public betting breakdown for a similar splits read.
Both picks: Under 7.5 (-105) and Padres Moneyline (-113).
MLB Yankees vs. Padres FAQ: Saturday September 5, 2026
What time does the Yankees vs. Padres game start?
First pitch is 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026, at Petco Park. This is the second game of a three-game interleague series in San Diego. It follows Friday’s opener, which the Padres won in extra innings, and precedes a Sunday afternoon finale.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Padres game on?
FOX is carrying the Yankees vs. Padres game nationally on Saturday, September 5, 2026. The 7:15 PM ET slot is FOX’s regular Saturday evening baseball window. Coverage can vary by market, so viewers should confirm availability locally.
Who is pitching for the Padres tonight?
Left-hander Robbie Ray starts for San Diego. He is 11-7 with a 3.14 ERA across 149 innings this season, split between San Francisco and San Diego. Ray has 126 strikeouts against 73 walks. New York counters with lefty Carlos Rodón, 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA.
Where are the Yankees and Padres playing today?
The teams are playing at Petco Park in San Diego, California, where the Padres host all three games of this series. Petco Park is widely regarded as one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in Major League Baseball, which shapes how the total is priced.
Who won the last meeting between the Yankees and Padres?
San Diego won Friday’s series opener 3-2 in 10 innings. Luis Campusano hit a two-run walk-off home run off Paul Blackburn. Max Fried allowed one run over 5.2 innings, and Walker Buehler gave up one run in five, per the official game recap.