The San Francisco Giants and New York Mets meet in the middle game of their weekend series at Citi Field on Saturday afternoon, and the starting pitching is doing most of the work on this number. New York opened at -182 on the moneyline and now sits at -190, while the total has held firm at 8. Mets rookie left-hander Zac Thornton has been the steadiest arm on a disappointing staff. San Francisco counters with Anthony Molina, a converted reliever making his second start since the Giants added him at the deadline. The market has already tipped its hand on one of our plays.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citi Field, Flushing, New York |
| When | Saturday, September 5 – 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY / NBC Sports Bay Area |
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets Betting Preview
Thornton leads this one off for New York. The rookie left-hander is 3-4 with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and 45 strikeouts. His strikeout rate is modest at 6.6 per nine, but the command underneath it is real. He owns a 3.21 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has held hitters to a .251 average. The underlying metrics back that surface line rather than contradict it.
Molina is the more interesting profile. The Giants got the 24-year-old right-hander from Atlanta on Aug. 2 in the Tyler Mahle trade. He debuted in long relief with 4 1/3 scoreless innings on 52 pitches. His first San Francisco start came Aug. 31 against his former club, and he allowed three runs on six hits with six strikeouts over five innings. That outing carried a target in the 60-to-75-pitch range. He is 2-0 with a 3.77 ERA, but the sample is thin and the workload question is live. Both men are listed as Saturday’s probable starters.
Neither club has much left to play for. New York entered the series 63-77 and last in the NL East, 4-6 in its previous 10 games while batting .231. San Francisco arrived 58-83 and fourth in the NL West, 5-5 in its last 10 but carrying a 5.15 ERA. New York took the opener 10-6 behind five home runs and leads the season series 4-1. Rafael Devers has carried the visitors, going 14-for-38 with five homers over his last 10 games. Our Friday preview of this series covers how the opener set up.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | +1.5 (-140) | +156 | U 8 (-115) |
| Mets | -1.5 (+120) | -190 | O 8 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, September 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Giants | 56% | 44% | Mets |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Giants vs. Mets Prediction — Which Side Is the Market Quietly Backing?
Start with what the market has done, not with what the ticket counts say. This game opened with New York at -182 on the moneyline and -1.5 at +130. It now sits at -190 and +120. The run line has moved toward the Mets even though the majority of run-line tickets, 56%, sit on San Francisco. That is the footprint of money arriving on the less-popular side, and it is the most useful market signal available here. The moneyline split, by contrast, is a lopsided 89% on New York, and that price has simply drifted with it. The second move is ordinary. The first one is not.
The baseball points the same way. Thornton has worked into the sixth inning in most of his starts. Molina profiles to hand the ball over well before that point. San Francisco has also been outscored heavily away from Oracle Park all season, and its 25-47 road mark is no small-sample quirk. The Mets, meanwhile, have four bats producing at once in Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette and Mark Vientos.
The case against deserves respect. Home favorites are awkward candidates to win by two or more runs, because a home club leading after the visitors bat in the ninth simply stops playing. Molina was competent in his lone start, and the Mets hit .231 over their previous 10 games. This is a lean, not a certainty, and the plus-money price is what pushes it over the bar.
The Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 (+120)
Giants vs. Mets Prediction — Who Covers the Middle Innings?
The second play leans on the same soft spot, and it is more honest to say so than to pretend two unrelated edges turned up in one game. If Molina is capped again, San Francisco needs a dozen or more outs from a staff that has allowed a 5.15 ERA over its last 10 games and that already worked multiple innings behind Matt Wilkinson in the opener. Citi Field no longer grades among the sport’s run-suppressing parks, and it plays best for left-handed power.
The counter-case is Thornton, and it is genuine. He does not give away free baserunners, and the Mets have not scored consistently over the past two weeks. A first-five-innings play was the other candidate, since it isolates the starters. That is the wrong vehicle here, though, because the edge sits in innings six through nine. This number has also not budged off its open, so there is no market confirmation either way.
The Pick: Over 8 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No third angle stands on its own without recycling the same read, so here is what to watch. Molina’s pitch count is the swing variable. If he reaches the sixth inning efficiently, both plays get harder in a hurry. Watch the Giants bullpen door in the fifth as well, since Yunior Marte’s multi-inning outing on Friday thins the late-game options.
On the other side, Kodai Senga now works out of the Mets bullpen as a high-leverage reliever after moving from the rotation in early August. He is a one-inning arm, so a lead that reaches him matters more to the run line than to the total.
To recap both plays: Mets Run Line -1.5 (+120) and Over 8 (-105). The first rests on the run-line move against the ticket count plus the starting pitching gap. The second rests on the bullpen innings that gap creates. They are correlated, so size them as one view of the game rather than two.
MLB Giants vs. Mets FAQ: Saturday September 5, 2026
What time does the Giants vs. Mets game start?
First pitch is 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026. It is an afternoon start, unlike the 7:10 p.m. ET window the clubs used for Friday’s opener. This is the middle game of a three-game weekend set in Queens.
What channel is the Giants vs. Mets game on?
The game airs on SNY in the New York market and on NBC Sports Bay Area for viewers in San Francisco. NBC Sports Bay Area is the Giants’ primary local broadcaster for the 2026 season. Out-of-market viewers can find it through MLB.TV, subject to blackout rules.
Who is pitching for the Mets today?
Rookie left-hander Zac Thornton starts for New York. He enters at 3-4 with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and 45 strikeouts, and he has been the steadiest arm on the Mets staff this season. San Francisco counters with right-hander Anthony Molina, who is 2-0 with a 3.77 ERA.
Where are the Giants and Mets playing today?
The teams play at Citi Field in Flushing, in the Queens borough of New York City. It is the Mets’ home ballpark and the site of all three games this weekend. New York is 32-39 at Citi Field this season, while San Francisco carries a 25-47 record on the road.
Who won the last meeting between the Giants and Mets?
New York won Friday’s opener 10-6, hitting five home runs including two from catcher Francisco Alvarez. Nolan McLean earned the win with six innings of work. The result gave the Mets a 4-1 edge in the season series, which began with a four-game set at Oracle Park in April.