Texas State makes the short trip up Interstate 35 to open the 2026 season in Austin, and the market has drawn a wide gap between the two sides. Texas is laying 29.5 points as a No. 5-ranked home favorite, with the total set at 60. The spread has come down a point since it opened, and roughly nine of every ten spread tickets sit on the visitors. That combination is where this opener gets interesting.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026
Texas State vs. Texas — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin TX |
| When | Saturday, September 5 – 3:30 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas State vs. Texas Betting Preview
Texas opens at No. 5 in the AP Top 25 after a 10-3 season that included a 6-2 SEC mark and a 41-27 Citrus Bowl win over Michigan. The Longhorns still missed the College Football Playoff. Steve Sarkisian spent the offseason reshaping both sides of the ball, and Arch Manning returns as the starting quarterback. The portal delivered receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn plus running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers.
The defense turns over meaningful pieces, however. Cornerback Malik Muhammad and safety Michael Taaffe both left for the NFL draft, and Texas installed a new defensive coordinator this offseason. Left tackle Trevor Goosby also dealt with a knee bone bruise in fall camp that limited his preparation. An opener is an awkward time to be sorting out an offensive line.
Texas State arrives with a proven offense and a defense that has plenty to prove. The Bobcats went 7-6 in 2025 and closed with a 41-10 Armed Forces Bowl win over Rice, their third straight bowl victory. G.J. Kinne is in his fourth season, and he knows this building after playing quarterback at Texas. This is also the program’s first game as a Pac-12 member following 13 years in the Sun Belt.
Quarterback Brad Jackson is the reason this offense can travel. He threw for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions last season while completing better than 70 percent of his passes. He added 744 rushing yards and a school-record 17 touchdowns. Receivers Beau Sparks (84 catches, 1,200 yards) and Chris Dawn Jr. (65 catches, 1,007 yards) both cleared 1,000 yards.
The other side of the ball is the concern. Texas State allowed 29 points and 382.9 yards per game in 2025, and opponents scored on 48 of 55 red zone trips. The series offers nothing to lean on either. These programs have met once, in 1930, and Texas won 36-0. This is a non-conference opener with no rivalry attached.
Texas State vs. Texas Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | +29.5 (-110) | +2500 | U 60 (-115) |
| Texas | -29.5 (-110) | -10000 | O 60 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of September 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Texas State vs. Texas — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Texas State | 91% | 9% | Texas |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Texas State vs. Texas Prediction — Is the Public Right About the Underdog?
The ticket count is the loudest signal on this board. Roughly 91 percent of spread bets sit on the visitors, against 9 percent on the home side. Splits that lopsided usually reflect recreational money buying a big number rather than sharp money finding an edge. Texas opened at -30.5 and now sits at -29.5, a move in the same direction as the tickets. The same pattern showed up Friday night in our UTEP vs Oklahoma Prediction September 4 breakdown.
The case for the points is straightforward. Jackson is an experienced starter with two 1,000-yard receivers, and Texas is breaking in a new defensive coordinator without two of its best defensive backs. Openers are sloppy by nature, and a heavy favorite that builds an early lead often eases off. That makes 29.5 a wide number to clear against an offense that sustains drives.
The case against is the depth gap and the profile on the other side of the ball. Texas State’s defense ranked among the least efficient in the country last season, and Austin in early September is the toughest environment this roster has seen. Texas also carries real motivation after missing the playoff. The practical edge is the number itself, a full point better than where the market opened.
The Pick: Texas -29.5 (-110)
Texas State vs. Texas Prediction — How Much Scoring Does This Opener Actually Produce?
The total opened at 59.5 and has crept to 60. That move says more about the two offenses than the two defenses. Texas State returns a quarterback who accounted for 38 total touchdowns last season, and Texas added skill talent through the portal. If both sides keep trading possessions into the fourth quarter, 60 is well within reach. Mismatched openers raise the same question we worked through in our Indiana State vs Purdue Prediction September 4 piece.
The counterweight is what a 29.5-point spread implies about the second half. Blowouts in college football produce running clocks, conservative playcalling, and long stretches of backup snaps. Texas State’s yardage also came at Sun Belt pace against Sun Belt defenses, and it likely will not transfer cleanly to an SEC front. The risk here is an early shootout, which the visiting offense is capable of forcing.
The Pick: Under 60 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The moneyline is not a place to do business here. Texas at -10000 asks for $100 to win $1, and Texas State at +2500 prices an outcome the market does not support. The spread and the total are where the prices sit near even money.
The honest read is a clear talent mismatch carrying real opening-day variance. If Jackson keeps drives alive and the retooled Texas secondary surrenders two or three explosive plays, the number gets difficult for the favorite in a hurry. That scenario beats both positions above, and it is not far-fetched. Depth usually decides the fourth quarter of games like this one.
The full card for Saturday in Austin: Texas -29.5 (-110) on the spread and Under 60 (-115) on the total.
NCAAF Texas State vs. Texas FAQ: Saturday September 5, 2026
What time does the Texas State vs. Texas game start?
Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026, which is 2:30 PM local time in Austin. This is the season opener for both programs, and it sits in the afternoon window ahead of the Saturday night slate.
What channel is the Texas State vs. Texas game on?
ESPN carries the national television broadcast. The Longhorns Radio Network handles the radio call for Texas listeners. Coverage begins ahead of the 3:30 PM ET kickoff from Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, with both programs opening their 2026 seasons in the same window.
Where are Texas State and Texas playing?
The game is at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, on the Texas campus. This is a standard home game for the Longhorns rather than a neutral-site opener, and Texas State is traveling north from San Marcos for its first Pac-12 season.
Who is starting at quarterback for Texas State and Texas?
Arch Manning starts for Texas and Brad Jackson starts for Texas State. Jackson threw for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns last season while adding 744 rushing yards and a school-record 17 rushing scores. Manning returns for another season as the full-time starter in Austin.
Who won the last meeting between Texas State and Texas?
Texas won the only previous meeting, 36-0, back in 1930. The all-time series stands at 1-0 in favor of Texas, which makes Saturday just the second game these two in-state programs have ever played against one another.