Florida State opens the 2026 season in Week 0 as one of the biggest home favorites on the board, and the spread has only gotten steeper since it hit the market. New Mexico State visits Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday night with the Seminoles laying 32 points after opening at 29.5. That move says plenty about how the market views a rebuilt Florida State roster against a Conference USA team that finished last in FBS rushing a year ago. The total sits at 53.5, and the public reaction has been strikingly lopsided.
Last Updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026
New Mexico State vs. Florida State — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee FL |
| When | Saturday, August 29 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | The CW |
New Mexico State vs. Florida State Matchup Overview
Florida State arrives with plenty to prove. The Seminoles finished 5-7 last season, went 2-6 in the ACC and did not win a road game. They also turned down a bowl bid. Mike Norvell returns for his seventh year, but the staff around him looks different. Tim Harris Jr. takes over as offensive coordinator, while Tony White is in his second season running the defense. Florida State did not appear in the 2026 preseason AP Top 25, and it did not receive votes either.
The quarterback question got answered in August. Ashton Daniels, a transfer with stops at Stanford and Auburn, was named the starter ahead of a crowded room. He brings 23 career starts, 4,783 passing yards and 1,397 rushing yards. His 5-18 record as a starter is a real caveat. Duce Robinson returns as a primary target outside.
New Mexico State went 4-8 last season and won just once away from home. Tony Sanchez is in his third year leading the program. The Aggies are pass-first by design, ranking 43rd nationally in passing offense at 250.7 yards per game. The ground game was another matter. New Mexico State finished last in FBS in rushing and 113th in total offense at 327.9 yards per game, scoring 21.6 points. The defense allowed 401.8 yards and 27.6 points per game.
Trey Hedden, a junior transfer from Furman, takes the first snap for New Mexico State. He inherits a receiving corps built around TK King, who led Conference USA at 73.5 receiving yards per game. Linebackers Tory Gethers and Sone Aupiu anchor a defense returning five starters. The Aggies leaned on the portal, and their season-opening release notes 31 players on the roster with prior starting experience.
New Mexico State vs. Florida State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | +32 (-115) | Not posted | O 53.5 (-115) |
| Florida State | -32 (-105) | Not posted | U 53.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, August 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
New Mexico State vs. Florida State — Who Is the Public Betting?
| New Mexico State | 96% | 4% | Florida State |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
NCAAF Betting Angle for New Mexico State vs. Florida State
The line movement here is the headline. This game opened with Florida State at -29.5 in late May and now sits at -32, a move of two and a half points across the summer. That is meaningful in a market that had months to price the matchup. Meanwhile, the total has not budged from its 53.5 opener, though the juice has shifted slightly toward the over at -115.
What makes this spot unusual is that the tickets and the line point opposite directions. Public spread bets are running 96% on New Mexico State and just 4% on Florida State, yet the number keeps climbing toward the Seminoles. When a heavy majority of tickets sits on one side and the line moves the other way, it usually signals that the larger wagers are landing on the favorite.
The case for the points is straightforward. Thirty-two is an enormous number, and Florida State is breaking in a new quarterback, a new coordinator and a reshaped roster. Openers are the least predictable games on the calendar because there is no current-year form to lean on. If the Seminoles start slowly or empty the bench early, the backdoor stays open.
The case for the favorite rests on the talent gap. Norvell has every reason to want a statement performance at home after a losing year. New Mexico State’s inability to run the ball is the structural problem. A pass-heavy team that falls behind by three scores gets forced into obvious throwing situations, which is how blowouts compound. Note that the moneyline is not currently posted here. When the market first listed it in late July, New Mexico State sat at +2800.
A 62-Year Gap and a Total That Will Not Move
These programs have met exactly once. Florida State won 36-0 in Tallahassee in 1964, making this the second meeting ever and the first in 62 years. There is no series pattern to handicap and no rivalry element to weigh. That helps explain why the total has been so stable.
If the spread lands near the number, 53.5 implies something close to a 42-11 final. For the over to cash, either New Mexico State moves the ball against a Florida State defense in its second year under White, or the Seminoles keep scoring deep into the fourth quarter. Big favorites often pull starters once the outcome is settled, and late clock management tends to suppress totals.
On the other side, New Mexico State’s passing volume is a genuine over-friendly trait. A team that throws that often can accumulate late points quickly, and Hedden’s arm gives the Aggies a path to a couple of scores even in a lopsided game. Florida State’s offense is the wild card. For more Week 0 context, see our previews of San Jose State vs USC and North Carolina vs TCU in Dublin.
NCAAF New Mexico State vs. Florida State FAQ: Saturday August 29, 2026
What time does the New Mexico State vs. Florida State game start?
Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 29, 2026. That is 5:00 PM local time in Las Cruces for New Mexico State fans. The game is one of the marquee Week 0 openers on the college football calendar and is the first contest of the season for both programs.
What channel is the New Mexico State vs. Florida State game on?
The game airs nationally on The CW. Thom Brennaman handles play-by-play with Jason Cabinda on analysis and Wes Bryant reporting from the sideline. Radio coverage runs through the Seminole Sports Network with Jeff Culhane calling the action, and the broadcast is also carried on SiriusXM.
Where are New Mexico State and Florida State playing?
The game is at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. This is a true home game for Florida State rather than a neutral-site opener, so the Seminoles get the crowd and the familiarity. New Mexico State makes the cross-country trip after going 1-5 in road games last season.
Who won the last meeting between New Mexico State and Florida State?
Florida State won the only previous meeting, a 36-0 shutout in Tallahassee in 1964. That gives the Seminoles a 1-0 lead in the all-time series. Saturday marks just the second game ever between the two programs, so there is very little head-to-head history to draw from.
Who is starting at quarterback for New Mexico State and Florida State?
Trey Hedden starts for New Mexico State and Ashton Daniels starts for Florida State. Hedden is a junior who transferred in from Furman. Daniels is a veteran with 23 career starts across stops at Stanford and Auburn, and he won the Florida State job during preseason camp.