The Phoenix Mercury visit the Chicago Sky on Monday night with the betting market sending mixed signals about a game that looks like a coin flip on paper. Phoenix opened as a home-court underdog on the road but now sits as a one-point favorite after sharp money nudged the line its way. Chicago, meanwhile, comes in off a convincing win over this same Mercury team three weeks ago. Below we break down the matchup, the odds, the public split, and the two best bets we like most, plus a bonus angle worth a look.
Last Updated: Monday, August 3, 2026
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL |
| When | Monday, August 3 – 9:00 PM ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky Betting Preview
These two teams enter with nearly identical résumés. Chicago sits at 11-18, while Phoenix checks in at 11-19. Both clubs are below .500 and fighting to climb the standings, so a head-to-head result carries real weight for each side. The Sky are playing at home and riding a strong recent stretch. The Mercury arrive with more top-end talent but a rockier month.
The most recent meeting favors Chicago. The Sky beat the Mercury 77-66 in Phoenix on July 7, holding a talented opponent to just 66 points. Rookie guard Sydney Taylor has been the story for Chicago lately, averaging close to 19 points over her last eight games on efficient shooting. Courtney Vandersloot and Natasha Cloud steady the backcourt, and Kamilla Cardoso anchors the paint. That continuity matters in a game this tight.
Phoenix, in contrast, is in transition. The Mercury acquired All-Star guard Kelsey Plum at the trade deadline, and her availability for this game is unsettled as she integrates into a new roster. On the floor, Kahleah Copper leads the way at 20.7 points per game, and Alyssa Thomas fills the box score with 15.8 points and a league-leading 8.9 assists. DeWanna Bonner adds 12.9 points and 7.6 rebounds. The talent is there. The chemistry, mid-shakeup, is the question. For more on both clubs, see our recent Phoenix Mercury breakdown and our Chicago Sky preview.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | -1 (-110) | -120 | U 179 (-110) |
| Sky | +1 (-110) | +100 | O 179 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, August 3, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mercury | 44% | 56% | Sky |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mercury vs. Sky Prediction — Can Chicago Defend Its Home Floor as an Underdog?
This line has moved, and the direction is worth noting. Phoenix opened as a slight underdog, and the number has since flipped to Mercury -1. That is reverse line movement. The public is leaning the other way, with 56 percent of spread tickets on Chicago, yet the price has drifted toward Phoenix. That pattern usually points to sharper money on the favorite. It is the clearest argument for backing the Mercury here.
Still, there is a strong case for the home team getting a point. Chicago just handled this Mercury group by 11, held them to 66, and did it on the road. Now the Sky get the same opponent at Wintrust Arena with their rotation intact. Phoenix, on the other hand, is folding a new All-Star into the mix on short notice. New pieces rarely click immediately, and early integration games often bring turnovers and spacing issues. In a near pick’em, that situational edge tilts toward the side with continuity.
The risk is obvious. If Phoenix’s stars simply overwhelm Chicago, the point will not matter. Respect the market move. However, taking a hot home team plus the hook against a club still sorting out its roster is the more defensible position at this number.
The Pick: Chicago Sky +1 (-110)
Mercury vs. Sky Prediction — Will the Rematch Stay Low-Scoring?
The total opened at 175.5 and has climbed to 179, so the market expects points. The last time these teams met, though, the scoreboard told a different story. That July 7 meeting finished 77-66, a combined 143 points that landed well under a number like this one. Chicago’s defense set the tone, and a grinding rematch is easy to picture with a playoff-race edge on both benches.
The counterpoint is the added firepower. If Plum suits up and the Mercury’s offense finds rhythm, Phoenix can push the pace and score in bunches. Copper and Thomas alone can carry a total on a good night. Even so, teams still learning to play together tend to bog down in the half court, and the recent head-to-head favors the low road. The value sits on the under.
The Pick: Under 179 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
For bettors who like Chicago but want a little more upside, the moneyline is the angle. Because this is essentially a pick’em, the Sky are priced at +100 to win outright. That is a better number than laying -110 on the spread for what is nearly the same outcome. You give up the safety of the extra point, but you get a plus-money return on a home team that already beat this opponent once. If you believe Chicago wins the game, the moneyline pays more.
Bonus Play: Chicago Sky Moneyline (+100)
To recap the card for Mercury at Sky: our best bet is Chicago Sky +1 (-110), we lean Under 179 (-110) on the total, and the bonus angle is the Chicago Sky moneyline at +100. All three lean on the same read — a settled home team is the more reliable side against an opponent still finding its footing.
WNBA Mercury vs. Sky FAQ: Monday August 3, 2026
What time does the Mercury vs. Sky game start?
The Phoenix Mercury and Chicago Sky tip off at 9:00 PM ET on Monday, August 3, 2026. The game is played at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois, where the Sky are the home team.
What channel is the Mercury vs. Sky game on?
The game airs nationally on USA Network on Monday, August 3, 2026. Regional coverage is also available in the Chicago and Phoenix markets, so fans in each team’s home region have a local option to watch as well.
Who won the last meeting between the Mercury and Sky?
The Chicago Sky won the most recent meeting, beating the Phoenix Mercury 77-66 on July 7, 2026. Chicago’s defense held Phoenix to just 66 points and controlled the game to earn the road victory over a more talented roster.
What is the Chicago Sky’s record this season?
The Chicago Sky enter this game at 11-18 on the 2026 season. Their opponent, the Phoenix Mercury, sit just behind at 11-19, making this a matchup between two clubs chasing ground in the standings.