The New York Liberty visit the Phoenix Mercury on Saturday afternoon, and the betting market expects a close game despite a wide gap in the standings. New York arrives at 16-13 and firmly inside the playoff picture. Phoenix sits at 11-18 and is scrapping to climb back into the Western Conference race. Still, the Mercury are only modest home underdogs on the current number. One lingering injury question in New York’s frontcourt makes this line more interesting than the records suggest. Below we break down the spread, the public money, and where the value sits before tip-off.
Last Updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| When | Saturday, August 1 – 3:00 PM ET |
| TV | ABC |
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
The Liberty remain one of the East’s steadier outfits behind Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones. The Liberty enter this one at 16-13, comfortably in postseason position. However, they stumbled in their most recent outing, dropping a 99-104 decision to Las Vegas on Thursday night. The bigger question is health. Forward Satou Sabally has been working through concussion protocol and carried a day-to-day tag into the weekend. If she cannot go, New York’s frontcourt depth takes a real hit against a physical Phoenix group.
Phoenix has had a rougher season at 11-18, yet the Mercury showed a pulse at home this week. They edged Golden State in a 91-89 finish on Wednesday, leaning on the interior play of Alyssa Thomas and the scoring punch of Kahleah Copper. DeWanna Bonner adds veteran experience on the wing. The Mercury did not carry a significant injury designation into this matchup, so they should be near full strength. This game is also a national ABC broadcast, part of the league’s Court Origins series featuring original franchises.
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -2.5 (-110) | -150 | U 177 (-110) |
| Mercury | +2.5 (-110) | +130 | O 177 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, August 1, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Liberty | 65% | 35% | Mercury |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction — Can Phoenix Cover as a Home Dog?
The spread opened with New York laying 2 points and has crept to 2.5. That small move tracks with the public, which has poured in on the road favorite. Roughly 65 percent of spread tickets sit on the Liberty, per the splits above. Sharp-looking action usually pushes a number against the crowd. Here the line has drifted with the crowd, so there is no obvious professional signal fading the Mercury.
The case for New York is simple. The Liberty own the better roster, the better record, and the postseason pedigree. If Sabally clears protocol and plays, their frontcourt edge over a sub-.500 opponent could show up on the scoreboard. Phoenix has been inconsistent, and a talented road team laying fewer than a field goal is not a demanding price.
The counter is where this gets interesting. Phoenix is home, coming off a win, and getting points against an opponent with a real health cloud. The Mercury match up physically inside with Thomas and Copper, and short home dogs in the WNBA have long been a live pocket. New York is also on the second leg of a tough stretch after a draining loss to the champions. In a game the market already prices as close, the points plus the venue tilt the lean toward the home side.
The Pick: Mercury +2.5 (-110)
Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction — Is 177 the Right Number?
The total opened at 175 and ticked up to 177. New York’s recent games have leaned high, including that 99-104 track meet with Las Vegas. That argues for points. Phoenix, though, has played at a more controlled tempo lately and won its last home game in the 80s. The Mercury’s 91-89 result over Golden State cleared this number by a hair, but their prior outings sat well under it.
Sabally’s status matters here too. If New York is without a rotation scorer, its ceiling on offense drops, and Phoenix is comfortable grinding a game into the low 80s at home. The risk is clear. If both offenses get rolling and the pace climbs, 177 falls quickly. Still, the combination of a possible New York absence and Phoenix’s slower home rhythm nudges this toward the lower side of the projection.
The Pick: Under 177 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
For bettors who believe Phoenix can win outright, the Mercury moneyline offers extra reward for the same read that drives the spread play. At +130, a home team getting a talented but banged-up favorite carries value on a small stake. The caution is real. New York is still the more complete team, and if Sabally suits up, the Liberty can pull away late. Treat this as a lighter-unit swing rather than a core position.
Bonus Angle: Mercury Moneyline +130
To recap the card for this one: the lean is Mercury +2.5 (-110) on the spread, Under 177 (-110) on the total, and a small-stake look at the Mercury moneyline at +130. Each side of the argument is laid out above, and New York’s frontcourt health is the swing factor that could flip the read before tip-off.
WNBA Liberty vs. Mercury FAQ: Saturday August 1, 2026
What time does the Liberty vs. Mercury game start?
The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury tip off at 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 1, 2026. The game is part of the WNBA’s afternoon slate and is scheduled at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, giving national viewers an early window before the evening games.
What channel is the Liberty vs. Mercury game on?
The game airs nationally on ABC. It is featured in the league’s Court Origins series, which spotlights four of the WNBA’s original franchises. Because it is a national broadcast, viewers across the country can watch without needing a regional sports package.
Where are the Liberty and Mercury playing?
The game is played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, the Mercury’s home arena. Phoenix hosts New York as a short home underdog and will try to defend its floor after a narrow home win earlier in the week.
What are the Liberty and Mercury records this season?
The New York Liberty enter at 16-13 and the Phoenix Mercury at 11-18. New York holds a firm spot in the playoff picture, while Phoenix sits below .500 and is chasing ground in a crowded Western Conference race heading into this matchup.