The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday afternoon, and the pitching matchup does most of the talking. Cincinnati hands the ball to breakout right-hander Chase Burns, while Pittsburgh counters with a struggling Mitch Keller. The Reds are priced at -155 on the moneyline, and our lean tilts their way. Still, the reasons run deeper than the price suggests.
Last Updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| When | Sunday, August 2, 2026 — 1:40 PM ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network Ohio, SportsNet Pittsburgh |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Start with the arms, because this game turns on them. Chase Burns has been one of the NL’s best stories, sitting at 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA for Cincinnati. His peripheral numbers back the surface line. He carries a WHIP right around 1.00 and misses bats at better than a strikeout per inning. Over his last nine starts he has gone 5-0 with a 2.98 ERA, so the form is current, not a season-long mirage.
Keller sits on the other end of that spectrum. The Pittsburgh right-hander is 6-7 with an ERA hovering near 5.00 and a WHIP above 1.30. He allows too much traffic, and his strikeout rate has slipped under seven per nine. His season already includes an outing where he was hammered for double-digit runs. On paper, this is a clear pitching mismatch.
The form guide leans the same direction. Pittsburgh enters on a four-game skid and has gone 3-7 over its last 10 while batting just .229 in that stretch. Cincinnati, by contrast, has won seven of its last 10. In the standings, the Pirates hold third place in the NL Central at 55-56, while the Reds sit fifth at 52-57. You can track the full NL Central standings for context. The season series has stayed tight all year, so this is not a lopsided rivalry despite the pitching gap.
One environmental note matters for the total. Great American Ball Park is a durable hitter-friendly venue, where mistakes tend to carry. That raises the run ceiling any time a contact-prone starter takes the mound. For more of this weekend’s card, see our latest MLB best bets.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | +1.5 (-165) | +130 | U 8.5 (-115) |
| Reds | -1.5 (+140) | -155 | O 8.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, August 2, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pirates | 24% | 76% | Reds |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction — Is Cincinnati’s Ace Worth the Steep Price?
The case for Cincinnati begins and ends with the mound. Burns is pitching like a frontline arm, and he draws a Pittsburgh lineup that has gone cold. A patient, high-strikeout righty against a .229 offense is a favorable script. Add a rested home crowd and better recent form, and the Reds look like the stronger side on Sunday.
The market agrees, and that is worth noting. Cincinnati opened around -153 and has firmed to -155, moving in step with heavy public support. That alignment confirms the read rather than contradicting it. There is no reverse line movement pointing back toward Pittsburgh here.
Now the other side, because -155 is a steep number. That price asks you to win roughly 61% of the time, which leaves little margin. Keller can still deliver a quiet start, and Burns was not sharp last time out, allowing five runs on Tuesday. The Pirates have also stayed competitive in the season series all year. If you view this as closer to a coin flip, Pittsburgh at +130 carries real appeal. The value on the favorite is thin, yet the direction is sound.
The Pick: Reds Moneyline (-155)
Pirates vs. Reds Best Bet — Can Cincinnati Turn This Into a Comfortable Win?
The most load-bearing angle for a bigger Cincinnati margin is Keller’s contact profile. He surrenders hard contact and traffic, and Great American Ball Park punishes mistakes. If the Reds string together a couple of multi-run innings, a two-run cushion becomes realistic. Meanwhile, Burns should keep the cold Pittsburgh bats from answering, which is how favorites cover the run line.
The counter is structural, and it is real. Cincinnati is the home team, so a lead after the top of the ninth ends the game early and removes chances to pad the margin. Roughly 28% of MLB games are decided by a single run, which is exactly why the run line sits at 1.5. Burns could also win a tidy low-scoring game, the kind that lands 3-1 and misses -1.5. At +140, though, the plus-money price pays for that risk.
The Pick: Reds Run Line -1.5 (+140)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Watch two things early. First, Burns’ command against a lineup that is pressing at the plate. If he is landing his breaking ball, the Pittsburgh offense could go quiet fast. Second, whether Keller avoids the one big inning that has defined his rough patches this year. In a ballpark this friendly to hitters, a single mistake can flip the run environment in a hurry.
The total feels honestly balanced. Burns suppresses one side while Keller and the park inflate the other, and the number has not moved off 8.5. That is a spot to pass. Both of our plays lean the same direction, and we will say so plainly. Our two picks: Reds Moneyline (-155) and Reds Run Line -1.5 (+140). For the previous meeting in this set, revisit our earlier Pirates-Reds series analysis.
MLB Pirates vs. Reds FAQ: Sunday August 2, 2026
What time does the Pirates vs. Reds game start?
First pitch is set for 1:40 PM ET on Sunday, August 2, 2026. The Pirates and Reds play the finale of their series at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. It is a Sunday afternoon start rather than a night game.
What channel is the Pirates vs. Reds game on?
The game airs on regional networks, with FanDuel Sports Network Ohio carrying the Reds broadcast and SportsNet Pittsburgh carrying the Pirates feed. Viewers outside the local markets can stream the matchup through MLB.TV, subject to standard blackout rules in each home region.
Who is pitching for the Reds on Sunday?
Right-hander Chase Burns is the Reds’ probable starter. He enters the outing at 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA, one of the strongest lines in the National League. Burns pairs a WHIP near 1.00 with a strikeout rate above one per inning, making him a difficult matchup.
Who is pitching for the Pirates on Sunday?
Right-hander Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh’s probable starter. He comes in at 6-7 with an ERA close to 5.00 and a WHIP above 1.30. Keller has allowed heavier contact this season, and his strikeout rate has dipped, leaving him vulnerable in a hitter-friendly park.
Where do the Pirates and Reds stand in the NL Central?
Entering Sunday, the Pirates hold third place in the NL Central at 55-56, while the Reds sit fifth at 52-57. Neither team is leading the division, and both remain on the fringe of the playoff picture. The head-to-head series has stayed close throughout the season.