The Pittsburgh Pirates walk into Great American Ball Park on Saturday with a four-game losing streak, and they are still the favorite on the board. Cincinnati has taken the first two games of this set and arrives 7-3 over its last 10. The market and the recent form point in opposite directions. Our headline play comes from what neither offense has done lately.
Last Updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio |
| When | Saturday, August 1, 2026 — 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh / Reds regional broadcast |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Pirates hand the ball to right-hander Braxton Ashcraft, listed as the probable starter opposite Reds lefty Andrew Abbott. Ashcraft’s season line is the better one on paper. He is 10-4 with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 135 strikeouts against 30 walks in 122.1 innings. However, the last month has been rough. Over his last four starts he has allowed 17 earned runs in 19.2 innings, including a three-inning, seven-run outing at Yankee Stadium on July 20.
Cincinnati has been the exception. Ashcraft faced the Reds twice earlier this season and allowed two earned runs in 13.2 innings, including 7.2 scoreless on May 3. Abbott is trending the other way. He is 5-6 with a 3.85 ERA, though a 1.38 WHIP and 4.15 walks per nine point to traffic. His last two starts produced 12 innings and two earned runs.
The standings tell a flatter story. Pittsburgh is 55-56 and third in the National League Central. Cincinnati is 52-57 and fifth in the same division. Over the last 10 games, though, the split is wide. The Reds are 7-3 while scoring 3.7 runs per game and allowing 3.8. The Pirates are 3-7, averaging 3.4 scored and 5.0 allowed.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | -1.5 (+135) | -123 | U 8.5 (-115) |
| Reds | +1.5 (-160) | +103 | O 8.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, August 1, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pirates | 59% | 41% | Reds |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction — Do Two Cold Lineups Make a Quiet Night?
The strongest read here is not a side. It is the run environment. Pittsburgh has produced a .700 OPS against left-handed pitching this year and now draws Abbott. Cincinnati has produced a .689 OPS against right-handers and now draws a strikeout arm in Ashcraft. Those are season-long numbers, not a 10-game blip, and they match what both clubs have actually scored. The Pirates have been held to three runs or fewer in three of their last six.
The venue is the obvious pushback. Great American Ball Park has dimensions that have long favored hitters, and its multi-year batting park factor sits at 104. In contrast, the single-season figure for 2026 is 98, so the park has played closer to neutral this year. Abbott’s walk rate is the other counterargument. Four free passes per nine creates traffic and early bullpen entry.
The market nudges the same way. The total opened at 8.5 with the under at -115, and it has not moved since. A frozen number with the juice on the under proves nothing by itself, but it does not conflict with the read. The case against is simple. Two tired bullpens can turn a 3-2 game into a 6-5 game in three innings.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction — Does Cincinnati Have the Fresher Arms?
Pittsburgh’s bullpen is the softest spot on the field. The Pirates used an opener on Thursday and needed 8.2 relief innings to finish it. On Friday, Paul Skenes threw 100 pitches but recorded only 12 outs, forcing another four innings from the pen. That is roughly 12.2 relief innings in two days. Cincinnati’s relievers have been busy too. However, Rhett Lowder and Hunter Greene each covered six innings in those same games, so the work came in one-inning pieces. Ashcraft has averaged fewer than six innings over his last four starts, which puts that tired pen back in play early.
The counter-case is real. Ashcraft’s full-season profile is the better one, and he has handled this lineup, allowing two earned runs across 13.2 innings against the Reds in 2026. Cincinnati’s bats are also weakest against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, the moneyline has drifted toward Pittsburgh since opening, from -119 to -123, so the money is not confirming the home side. That argues for a measured position. The offset is the price. A club winning seven of 10, at home, at plus money, against a starter in a four-start slump is a fair place to stand.
The Pick: Reds Moneyline (+103)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Both plays rest on the same picture, and that is worth saying plainly rather than dressing up a third angle. This reads as a tight, low-scoring game in which the home side has the fresher relief corps. A short start from either pitcher would hand the night to two tired bullpens and bury both positions.
The swing moment is the fifth and sixth innings. If Abbott is near 90 pitches with runners on, Cincinnati’s leverage arms get pulled in early again. Our Friday coverage of this series broke down the middle game, which the Reds took 8-7.
Picks recap: Under 8.5 (-115) and Reds Moneyline (+103).
MLB Pirates vs. Reds FAQ: Saturday August 1, 2026
What time does the Pirates vs. Reds game start?
First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 1, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. This is the third game of a four-game series between the two National League Central clubs. The series finale follows on Sunday, August 2.
What channel is the Pirates vs. Reds game on?
The game airs on SportsNet Pittsburgh in the Pirates market and on the Reds’ regional television broadcast in Cincinnati. Radio coverage runs on WLW 700 AM in Cincinnati and on Sports Radio 93.7 KDKA The Fan in Pittsburgh. There is no national television window.
Who is pitching for the Pirates tonight?
Right-hander Braxton Ashcraft starts for Pittsburgh, and left-hander Andrew Abbott starts for Cincinnati. Ashcraft is 10-4 with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 135 strikeouts over 21 starts. Abbott is 5-6 with a 3.85 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and 94 strikeouts over 22 starts.
Who won the last meeting between the Pirates and Reds?
Cincinnati won the most recent meeting 8-7 on Friday, July 31, at Great American Ball Park. The Reds also took the series opener 3-2 on Thursday. Pittsburgh still leads the 2026 season series 6-5, with two games left between the clubs.
Where do the Pirates and Reds stand in their divisions?
Pittsburgh is third in the National League Central at 55-56, and Cincinnati is fifth in the same division at 52-57. Both clubs trail the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates entered Saturday on a four-game losing streak, while the Reds had won two in a row.