Kyle Kirkwood will lead the field to green for the Borchetta Bourbon Music City Grand Prix on Sunday, July 19, 2026, but Josef Newgarden remains the betting favorite at +225. Kirkwood edged Newgarden for the NTT P1 Award with a two-lap average of 196.852 mph, and the two share the front row at Nashville Superspeedway. The 300-lap race covers nearly 400 miles on the 1.33-mile concrete oval, with the green flag scheduled for 5:40 PM ET on FOX. Below is a full breakdown of the latest post-qualifying Music City Grand Prix odds, the favorites, the mid-tier value, and the longshots worth a look.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026
2026 Music City Grand Prix — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Nashville Superspeedway, Lebanon, TN |
| When | Sunday, July 19 – 5:40 PM ET (green flag) |
| TV | FOX |
Josef Newgarden Leads 2026 Music City Grand Prix Odds
Newgarden shortened to +225 across race week, and qualifying explains most of that move. He starts second at 196.642 mph, a fraction off the pole. He also won this race a year ago at Nashville Superspeedway, holding off Alex Palou by roughly half a second. He is a native of Hendersonville, Tennessee, so the home-track motivation is real. Scott McLaughlin starting third gives Team Penske two cars in the top three.
The case against him is the price. Newgarden sits eighth in the championship standings and has not won in 2026. His +225 number implies a win probability near 31 percent, which is a lot to pay for a driver whose season form is modest. A 300-lap oval race also invites attrition. Pit sequences, lapped traffic, and a single caution at the wrong moment can undo a front-row start.
Even so, from the favorite tier Newgarden is the driver most likely to win. The market is reading his Nashville record and front-row speed over his season-long slump, and that read holds up on an oval that suits him. The price is now short enough that the value has largely been squeezed out. The call goes wrong if Kirkwood converts the pole into clean track position, or if Palou simply drives his usual measured race from fourth and lets the leaders burn their equipment.
2026 Music City Grand Prix — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josef Newgarden | +225 |
| Alex Palou | +450 |
| Kyle Kirkwood | +450 |
| Scott McLaughlin | +700 |
| Christian Rasmussen | +1200 |
| David Malukas | +1200 |
| Scott Dixon | +1200 |
| Pato O’Ward | +1600 |
| Marcus Armstrong | +2500 |
| Alexander Rossi | +3000 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 19, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest IndyCar Odds – Props
Where the Music City Grand Prix Value Sits
Qualifying reshaped the middle of this board, and that is where the better prices now sit. Three names stand out.
Pato O’Ward (+1600) is the most interesting drift on the board. He opened race week among the top few choices on the board and has since slid after qualifying 12th at 195.154 mph, with Arrow McLaren chasing balance all day. However, he won at Mid-Ohio on July 5 and starts a 300-lap race where track position matters far less than it does on a road course. The knock is genuine, since the car has not shown front-running oval pace this weekend. The price now pays for a driver the market rated a serious contender only days ago.
Scott Dixon (+1200) rolls off fifth and remains the most experienced closer in the field. He is a former Nashville winner, and his Chip Ganassi Racing entry rarely beats itself over long green-flag runs. The case against is a quiet stretch of results in 2026. Still, oval craft over 300 laps is exactly what his profile rewards.
Christian Rasmussen (+1200) starts seventh and has already proven he can win on an oval. The Ed Carpenter Racing program tends to punch above its weight on this type of track. He needs a clean race and some help, and his qualifying speed suggests he is closer to the front group than his price implies.
Longshots and Race-Day Storylines
At the long end of the board, Alexander Rossi (+3000) is the most accessible play. He qualified sixth, has led laps at Nashville Superspeedway before, and only needs strategy to break his way. Deeper still, Rinus VeeKay and Christian Lundgaard sit well past the mid-tier group. Lundgaard is the more interesting of the two, since he was third in points earlier this month but took a nine-place grid penalty for an unapproved engine change. Both are sprinkle-sized plays that need heavy attrition to cash.
David Malukas (+1200) is the story of the weekend. He crashed hard in Turn 2 during Saturday practice and was taken to a hospital, but he was cleared to compete after scans came back negative for breaks or ligament damage in a badly bruised right knee. He then went fastest in final practice. The catch is that he missed qualifying and starts 25th. That combination of pace and track position makes him the hardest driver on the board to price. Elsewhere, Palou leads the championship and protects his cushion over Kirkwood with seven races left, so points math matters even in a one-off market. The board’s shape has shifted sharply from the Mid-Ohio odds earlier this month, with the oval specialists now on top.
2026 Music City Grand Prix FAQ
What time does the 2026 Music City Grand Prix start?
The green flag is scheduled for 5:40 PM ET on Sunday, July 19, 2026. IndyCar is keeping the start flexible so the race can begin as soon as FOX’s coverage of the FIFA World Cup Final concludes.
Who won the pole for the 2026 Music City Grand Prix?
Kyle Kirkwood won the pole with a two-lap average of 196.852 mph in the No. 27 Andretti Global Honda. It is his fourth career IndyCar pole and his second at Nashville Superspeedway. Josef Newgarden qualified second at 196.642 mph.
How many laps is the 2026 Music City Grand Prix?
The race runs 300 laps on the 1.33-mile concrete oval, covering nearly 400 miles. That makes it the second-longest race on the 2026 IndyCar schedule behind the Indianapolis 500.
What channel is the 2026 Music City Grand Prix on?
The race airs on FOX, with coverage beginning at 5:35 PM ET. It is also available to stream through the FOX One app.
Is David Malukas racing at Nashville?
Yes. Malukas was cleared to race after a heavy practice crash on Saturday, with scans showing no broken bones or ligament damage in his bruised right knee. He missed qualifying and will start 25th.
Who is favored to win the 2026 Music City Grand Prix?
Josef Newgarden is the betting favorite at +225. He starts second, won this race in 2025, and races close to his Tennessee hometown, though he sits eighth in the 2026 championship standings.