The Phoenix Mercury visit the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday, and the number says mismatch. Las Vegas is a 9-point home favorite at -390 on the moneyline, with the total at 170.5. That looks right on the surface. The Aces are 16-6 and tied for the league’s best record, while Phoenix has slipped to 8-15. However, this matchup produced one of the strangest results of the 2026 season, and the line has not moved the way a comfortable favorite’s line usually moves.
Last Updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas NV |
| When | Saturday, July 11 – 6:00 PM ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Game Preview
Las Vegas arrives healthy and in form. A’ja Wilson returned Thursday from a three-game absence with an injured right ankle and looked unaffected, posting 32 points and 10 rebounds in an 88-80 win at Portland. She leads the WNBA at 26.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Jackie Young added 19 points and 11 assists, and the Aces lead the league in assists at 22.3 per contest. The WNBA standings have Las Vegas tied with Minnesota for the league’s best mark.
Phoenix trends the other way. The Mercury have dropped four of their last six and are 3-6 against the spread over their last nine graded games. Kahleah Copper is still the engine at 20.8 points per game, fourth in the league, and Alyssa Thomas fills the sheet at 14.6 points, 8.2 assists and 6.9 rebounds. Depth is the problem. Natasha Mack is out with a bone bruise in her left foot, while Las Vegas lists Janiah Barker and Dana Evans as day-to-day after both sat Thursday. Check the latest WNBA injury report before betting.
The season series is 1-1, and the results could not be further apart. Phoenix won 99-66 in Las Vegas on May 9 as a double-digit underdog. The Aces answered on June 17 in Phoenix, 86-76 as a 6.5-point favorite. For more on both teams, see our Fever vs Mercury Prediction July 9 and Aces vs Fire Prediction July 9.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | +9 (-105) | +295 | U 170.5 (-110) |
| Aces | -9 (-115) | -390 | O 170.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, July 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mercury | 75% | 25% | Aces |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mercury vs. Aces Best Bet — Will The Mercury Rise in Vegas Today?
Start with the record that matters to spread bettors. Las Vegas is 16-6 straight up but only 9-12 against the number. That gap is the story of this team in 2026. The Aces win, but rarely by as much as the market asks. The home split reinforces it. Las Vegas is 10-3 on the road and just 6-4 at home, an odd profile for a contender and one that argues against laying a big number in their own building.
The series history points the same way. Las Vegas has won eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs, but Phoenix has covered seven of those 10. The Mercury rarely beat the Aces. They do keep it closer than the price suggests. Thomas is a big reason why: she controls tempo and gets to the line, and Phoenix ranks fifth in the league in free throw attempts at 23.1 per game.
The case against Phoenix starts with health. Without Mack, the Mercury frontcourt is thin behind Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, and Wilson is the worst possible matchup for a short interior. Note too that 75 percent of spread tickets already sit on Phoenix, and the number has moved from -10.5 to -9 in that same direction. The market is agreeing with the crowd, not fading it, so the contrarian edge some bettors assume is here does not exist. This is a lean on team profile, not a hidden signal.
The Pick: Phoenix Mercury +9 (-105)
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction — Does a Phoenix Cover Depend on The Under?
The total opened at 173.5 and has been bet down to 170.5. That three-point move is meaningful, and recent data supports it. Las Vegas has gone under in six of its last nine graded games. Both meetings between these teams this season finished under, including the 86-76 game in June that stayed well below 171.5. Phoenix has also been held to 77 points or fewer twice in its last four, and a short bench tends to slow the game down.
The over case deserves respect. The Aces score 89.9 points per game, third in the WNBA, and Phoenix allows 85.7. Add the raw averages and you land above this total, not below it. If Wilson posts another 30-point night and Copper answers, this clears 170.5 easily. The counterweight is that this matchup keeps producing unders.
The Pick: Under 170.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
One more wrinkle deserves a flag. The Aces moneyline opened at -450 and has shortened to -390, even though 95 percent of moneyline tickets sit on Las Vegas. When the crowd piles onto one side and the price drifts the other way, that is the shape of money arriving against the public. It proves nothing on its own, and WNBA lines move on modest handle. Paired with the Aces’ 9-12 spread mark and 6-4 home record, a small-unit look at the Phoenix moneyline is defensible.
The risk is obvious. An 8-15 team beating the league’s co-best team outright is by far the less likely outcome, and Phoenix would need big nights from Copper and Thomas. Size it as a speculative play, not a core position.
Bonus Pick: Phoenix Mercury Moneyline +295 (small unit)
All three positions, in one place: Phoenix Mercury +9 (-105), Under 170.5 (-110), and a small-unit Phoenix Mercury moneyline at +295. Las Vegas is the better team and should win. Covering nine at home against a team that has covered seven of the last 10 in this series is a different question.
WNBA Mercury vs. Aces July 11, 2026 Prediction FAQ
What time does the Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces game start?
Tip-off is 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, July 11, at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas.
What channel is the Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces game on?
The game streams nationally on Peacock. Regional coverage airs on The Spot-Vegas 34 and AZFamily.
Who is favored in the Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces game?
Las Vegas is favored, laying 9 points at -115 and priced at -390 on the moneyline. Phoenix is +9 (-105) and +295 outright.
Who won the last meeting between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces?
Las Vegas won 86-76 on June 17 in Phoenix. The season series is split 1-1, as the Mercury won 99-66 in Las Vegas on May 9.
Is A’ja Wilson playing tonight?
Wilson is active. She returned Thursday from a three-game absence with a right ankle injury and scored 32 points with 10 rebounds against Portland.