The New York Yankees head to Tropicana Field on Monday night riding one of their ugliest stretches of the season, while the first-place Tampa Bay Rays keep swinging hot bats at home.
Tampa Bay sits as a slim home favorite at -118 on the moneyline, with the total parked at a modest 7.5 runs. That number is the story here. With the American League ERA leader on the mound for New York and a Rays lineup that just will not cool off, the run environment is where our headline read lives.
Last Updated: Monday, July 6, 2026
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| When | Monday, July 6 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | YES and Rays.TV |
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview
Pitching sets the tone for this one. New York hands the ball to right-hander Cam Schlittler, who has been the best starter in the league. He carries a 2.08 ERA with 123 strikeouts across 104 2/3 innings, and MLB.com notes his mark is the second-lowest ERA by a Yankees starter through 18 starts in 40 years. However, he is coming off his worst outing of the year. Schlittler allowed six earned runs and four homers to Detroit in his last start, with three of those long balls landing in the first inning.
Tampa Bay counters with veteran right-hander Griffin Jax, who makes his 13th start of the year. Jax owns a steady 3.45 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings. He is not an ace, but he has been reliable, and his last time out he gave up three runs over six innings against Kansas City. Meanwhile, the bats behind him are rolling. Over their last 10 games the Rays are hitting .274 as a team with 21 home runs and a .509 slugging mark, led by Junior Caminero.
The Yankees arrive in the opposite condition. New York has dropped 12 of its last 15 games and been outscored 86-41 over that span, falling four games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East. The offense has gone cold at the worst time, batting just .155 as a team over the last 10 contests. Part of that is health. Captain Aaron Judge remains on the injured list with a stress fracture in his right rib, and Giancarlo Stanton is sidelined as well. For more of Monday’s card, see our latest MLB best bets.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | +1.5 (-225) | -102 | U 7.5 (-125) |
| Rays | -1.5 (+185) | -118 | O 7.5 (+105) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, July 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 38% | 62% | Rays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Yankees vs. Rays Best Bet — Is Today’s Total Too Low?
Start with the venue, because it frames everything. Tropicana Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. It suppresses runs and home runs relative to the league, and as an indoor dome it removes any wind that might help a ball carry. A total of 7.5 already reflects some of that, yet the underlying inputs suggest the number could still be generous.
The New York side of the ledger is the clearest. The Yankees are hitting .155 as a team over their last 10 games, and they are doing it without Judge and Stanton in the middle of the order. That is a lineup built to be smothered by a control-and-strikeout arm like Jax. On the other side, Schlittler misses bats at an elite rate, which limits Tampa Bay’s traffic even on a hot streak. The market has leaned this way too, with the under moving from -120 at the open to -125 now.
The counter is real and worth respecting. The Rays are slugging .509 over their last 10 and just hit 21 homers in that window, so one swing from Caminero can flip the math quickly. Schlittler also just surrendered four home runs in a single start, so the shutdown version of him is not guaranteed. Still, the combination of a dead Yankees offense, two capable starters, and a run-suppressing dome points one direction more often than not.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-125)
Yankees vs. Rays Prediction — Are The Yanks Under Valued Today?
The side market tells an interesting story. Despite Tampa Bay drawing 62 percent of the run-line tickets and a majority of the moneyline bets, the price has not drifted toward the Rays. New York opened at +100 and has actually shifted to -102, meaning the number moved against the popular side. That kind of quiet reverse move often signals sharper money on the less-popular team.
It is easy to see why. Schlittler is the best pitcher in this game by a comfortable margin, and getting the league’s ERA leader at essentially a coin-flip price is value in a vacuum. Jax is solid but beatable, and even a scuffling Yankees offense needs only a few runs when it has this kind of arm on the mound. The flip side is obvious, though. New York’s bats have been historically bad lately, and a team hitting .155 can waste any pitching performance. If the offense stays asleep, no edge on the rubber will matter.
The Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline (-102)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
This is a game about run scarcity. The most important swing factor is whether Caminero and Cedric Mullins can push a run or two across against Schlittler before the bullpens take over. If Schlittler pitches like his season line rather than his last start, both of our reads point the same way: a low-scoring game that New York can steal behind its ace. If the Yankees’ bats stay frozen, the under still has a strong chance to cash even in a Tampa Bay win.
Watch the first inning closely, since Schlittler’s lone disaster this year came from early mistakes over the plate. A clean opening frame would be a strong tell for both plays. To recap, we are backing the Under 7.5 (-125) as the stronger position and the New York Yankees moneyline (-102) as the secondary play.
MLB Yankees vs. Rays July 6, 2026 FAQ
What time does the Yankees vs. Rays game start?
First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET on Monday, July 6, 2026, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Rays game on?
The game is broadcast on YES and Rays.TV.
Who is pitching for the Yankees on July 6?
Right-hander Cam Schlittler starts for New York. He owns a 2.08 ERA, which leads American League pitchers.
Who is pitching for the Rays on July 6?
Right-hander Griffin Jax starts for Tampa Bay. He carries a 3.45 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
Who is favored in the Yankees vs. Rays game?
Tampa Bay is a slight home favorite at -118 on the moneyline, while New York sits at -102. The total is set at 7.5 runs.