The Fourth of July rivalry heat carries straight into Sunday. St. Louis and Chicago settle a chippy weekend set at Wrigley Field, while San Diego tries to snap a skid under the primetime lights in Los Angeles, where the Dodgers sit a National-League-best 59-31.
Two of the league’s shakiest rotations even meet a mile above sea level. Today’s card lines up an early public-fade angle at Wrigley, a mid-day total that leans on the game’s most notorious ballpark, and a late West Coast side testing a heavy favorite. Saturday’s three-pick roundup mixed sides and totals. Today follows suit with one moneyline, one over/under, and one run line.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 5, 2026
Early Game — St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| When | Sunday, July 5 – 2:30 PM ET |
| TV | Peacock |
These rivals are heading opposite directions on the scoreboard. The Cubs came in 49-39 and second in the NL Central with an 8-2 mark over their last 10. Still, St. Louis stole the first two games in lopsided fashion, including a 3-0 shutout, and now sits within striking distance in the division.
The pitching edge tilts toward the home side. Javier Assad brings a 6-1 record and 4.53 ERA for Chicago, while St. Louis counters with left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who carries a 4-5 mark and a 5.33 ERA. On paper, that favors the Cubs. The market agrees, hanging Chicago at -147 on the moneyline. The public agrees even harder, and that is where the angle lives.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 1.5 (-170) | +123 | U 8.0 (-110) |
| Cubs | -1.5 (+145) | -147 | O 8.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cardinals vs. Cubs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Cardinals | 17% | 83% | Cubs |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (+123)
The case for the Cardinals starts with price. Roughly 83 percent of run-line bets sit on Chicago, yet St. Louis has outplayed the Cubs all weekend and gets a plus number. Backing a hot lineup at plus money against a lopsided public field is a classic value spot. The case against is real. Assad has been steady, the Cubs are 8-2 over their last 10, and home field matters. If Assad settles in early, Liberatore’s 5.33 ERA becomes the story. This is a lean rather than a certainty, but the number offers enough cushion to back the underdog.
Mid-Day Game — San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Coors Field, Denver, CO |
| When | Sunday, July 5 – 4:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Bay Area |
Few environments in the sport scramble a total quite like Coors Field. The altitude thins the air and expands the gaps, and this weekend has shown it. Colorado, 36-53 and last in the NL West, hung a 15-3 win on the Giants on July 3. San Francisco, 36-51, answered with a 6-4 win on Independence Day. The bats have been loud even by the standards of this ballpark.
The pitching lines fuel that read. San Francisco sends Tyler Mahle (1-8, 5.67 ERA), and Colorado counters with Tanner Gordon (0-2, 6.69 ERA). Two struggling starters at the majors’ most extreme run-scoring venue points to traffic on the bases. For more, see our Giants vs. Rockies prediction for July 5.
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | -1.5 (+120) | -121 | U 13.0 (-110) |
| Rockies | 1.5 (-140) | +101 | O 13.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 5, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Giants | 69% | 31% | Rockies |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Over 13.0 Runs (-110)
The case for the over is straightforward. Two of the least effective starters in the league are throwing at Coors Field, and both offenses have already cleared this number in the series. With both starters carrying an ERA near or above 5.70, runs should come at altitude, and 13 becomes very reachable. The case against matters as well. Books set totals high here for a reason, and Saturday’s 6-4 final landed well under. If either starter grinds through five innings, the scoring can cap in the nine-to-eleven range. Still, the recent run environment and the pitching lines both point up.
Late Game — San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| When | Sunday, July 5 – 7:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
The primetime rivalry pits a surging side against a reeling one. Los Angeles, 59-31 and atop the NL West, has taken the first three games of this set, including a 3-0 shutout on July 4. San Diego, 43-45 and third in the division, has dropped eight straight. The market reflects that wide gap.
The pitching matchup, however, is closer than the moneyline suggests. San Diego starts left-hander JP Sears, whose 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP have been rough. Yet Los Angeles counters with Emmet Sheehan, who has posted a 6.00 ERA across his last five starts even while holding a 5.08 mark on the year. Two vulnerable arms in a rivalry game can keep the margin tighter than the price implies.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | 1.5 (-115) | +176 | U 9.5 (-105) |
| Dodgers | -1.5 (-105) | -216 | O 9.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 5, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Padres | 16% | 84% | Dodgers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: San Diego Padres Run Line +1.5 (-115)
The case for the run line rests on value against a crowded favorite. About 84 percent of spread money sits on Los Angeles, pushing the price to -216 on the moneyline. Sheehan has been hittable lately, so even a cold San Diego lineup should find some contact. A one-and-a-half-run cushion protects against the blowout the public expects. The case against is the streak itself. San Diego has lost eight in a row, the Dodgers are rolling at home, and Sears could get knocked out early. Even so, buying a plus-cushion on a live underdog beats laying heavy chalk here.
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
Three picks, three bet types. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline at Wrigley, back the over in the Giants-Rockies matchup at Coors Field, and grab the Padres on the run line as underdogs in Los Angeles. Each play leans on price rather than the crowd.