The New York Mets visit the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night, and the home side opens as a modest moneyline favorite. Toronto sits at -128, yet the pitching matchup tells a more interesting story.
The Mets hand the ball to a left-hander riding his best stretch of the year, while Toronto counters with a talented rookie who has stumbled lately. That gap is the lever for our top play, and the road dog looks live at a plus-money price.
Last Updated: Monday, June 29, 2026
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| When | Monday, June 29 – 7:07 PM ET |
| TV | SNY / Sportsnet |
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview
Pitching frames this matchup. New York sends left-hander Sean Manaea, who has rediscovered his form since returning to the rotation. Manaea posted a 3.00 ERA across his June starts and held opposing hitters to a .205 average in that span. In his June 18 outing against the Phillies, he worked 5 1/3 innings and allowed two runs while striking out five. His season line still reads 1-2 with an ERA near 4.80, but the recent trend is what matters tonight.
Toronto counters with rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage, who carries a 3-3 record and a season ERA in the mid-3.00s. However, his recent work has been bumpy. Yesavage has surrendered five or more runs in three of his last four starts, and his command has wavered. His walk total has climbed during that stretch, which puts traffic on the bases and raises his pitch count early.
Neither club is chasing a division title. Toronto entered the day around 39-41, while New York sat closer to 34-46. Still, both rosters carry enough offense to punish a struggling starter. For more on each side, see our Phillies vs. Mets prediction and our Rangers vs. Blue Jays breakdown from this weekend.
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 (-195) | +107 | U 8.5 (-120) |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 (+165) | -128 | O 8.5 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, June 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mets | 30% | 70% | Blue Jays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Is the Public Backing the Wrong Arm?
The betting public has loaded up on Toronto, with 70% of moneyline tickets landing on the home side. That support leans on reputation and the home-field comfort of Rogers Centre. The line agrees only mildly, as Toronto moved from -124 to -128 since opening. That is movement with the public, which carries little sharp signal on its own.
The baseball case points the other way. Manaea has been the steadier arm over the past month, while Yesavage has allowed runs in bunches and battled his control. A road underdog with the better current starter, available at plus money, is exactly the type of value spot worth pressing. New York also offers enough patience at the plate to work deep counts against a rookie who walks hitters.
The counterpoint is real. Yesavage owns front-line stuff and could miss bats in a bounce-back outing, especially at home. Manaea’s season ERA still reflects a rough April, and one wobble could flip the script. Even so, the price rewards the side with the stronger recent form, and that edge is enough to back the visitors.
The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline (+107)
Mets vs. Blue Jays Best Bet — Can You Trust the Early Innings Most?
The cleanest way to express the pitching edge is to isolate the starters. A first-five-innings angle removes both bullpens from the equation, which matters when neither relief corps inspires full confidence in a close game. Manaea’s June form and Yesavage’s recent control problems should show up most clearly while the starters are still on the mound.
There is risk here too. Rookies often settle in early before tiring, so Yesavage could match Manaea zero for zero through the order the first time. Yet the recent sample favors New York staying level or ahead at the midway mark, and that is the read worth backing.
The Pick: New York Mets First 5 Innings (F5)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The total offers a third angle worth a look. The number opened at a flat 8.5 with even juice, then the under shifted to -120 as money arrived on fewer runs. Manaea’s recent ability to limit hard contact supports that move, and a controlled environment under the roof keeps conditions stable. The clear counter is Yesavage’s walk rate, which can turn a quiet game into a crooked-number inning in a hurry. That tension is why the total stays a secondary lean rather than a headline play.
Bonus Angle: Under 8.5 (-120)
To recap the card: the strongest play is the New York Mets moneyline (+107), backed by a New York first-five-innings angle, with a secondary lean to the under 8.5 (-120). All three rest on the same theme. Manaea is trending up, Yesavage is trending down, and the market has not fully adjusted.
MLB Mets Prediction FAQ
What time does the Mets vs. Blue Jays game start?
First pitch is set for 7:07 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2026, at Rogers Centre in Toronto.
What channel is the Mets vs. Blue Jays game on?
The game is carried regionally on SNY in the New York market and Sportsnet in Canada.
Who is pitching for the Blue Jays?
Toronto is scheduled to start rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage, who enters with a 3-3 record this season.
Who is favored in the Mets vs. Blue Jays game?
Toronto is the home favorite at -128 on the moneyline, while New York sits as the underdog at +107.