The Boston Red Sox head north to close out their series against the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon, and the pitching matchup does most of the talking. Boston hands the ball to hard-throwing lefty Payton Tolle, who is coming off the finest start of his young career. Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, a future Hall of Famer whose 2026 has been derailed by injuries. The market makes the Red Sox a moderate road favorite at -159. Still, the Blue Jays have won the first three games of this set and enter red-hot at home. Our read leans on the arm advantage, with two plays below.
Last Updated: August 13, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| When | August 13, 2026 — 3:07 PM ET |
| TV | NESN, Sportsnet |
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Pitching frames this one. Tolle carries a 7-6 record, a 3.20 ERA, and 124 strikeouts into the finale, and he is trending sharply upward. On August 7 he punched out a career-high 14 batters against the Athletics over six innings, allowing one run with no walks. That was the most by a Red Sox pitcher since Chris Sale in 2019. Scherzer, by contrast, sits at 1-4 with a 7.25 ERA. The 42-year-old has been slowed by an injury-plagued 2026 that included back spasms and a thumb issue, and he has looked rusty since returning.
Boston is 64-56, third in the AL East and 10 games back. The Red Sox ripped off a nine-game winning streak in early August before cooling to 5-5 over their last 10. Toronto sits at 59-63, fourth in the AL East and 16 back, yet the Blue Jays are playing their best baseball of late at 7-3 in their last 10. They carried that momentum into Wednesday’s meeting and have led the recent head-to-head.
Rogers Centre plays as a fairly neutral run environment, so the arms and the bats decide this. Toronto’s lineup has done the heavier lifting in the head-to-head, while Boston’s offense has gone quiet since the streak ended.
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -1.5 (+110) | -159 | U 7.5 (+100) |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 (-130) | +133 | O 7.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of August 13, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Red Sox | 63% | 37% | Blue Jays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Can the Young Lefty Cash In?
The starting-pitching gap is the biggest edge on the board. Tolle is missing bats at an elite clip and just posted a 14-strikeout, no-walk gem. Scherzer, meanwhile, owns a 7.25 ERA and has not looked like his old self since coming back from injury. When a rising arm faces a diminished veteran, the door opens for the better side to build a comfortable lead rather than a one-run squeaker.
Boston’s road status helps here as well. A road team bats in the ninth even when it leads, giving extra chances to tack on and turn a close game into a multi-run result. That profile rewards taking the run line at a plus price over the steeper moneyline. The market backs the read in part: the total has dropped from its open, a sign books expect Tolle to keep Toronto’s bats in check.
The other side is real, though, and worth respecting. Toronto has won the first three games of this series and is 7-3 in its last 10, so the Blue Jays are swinging with confidence at home. The moneyline has actually drifted a touch toward Toronto despite Boston drawing more tickets, a mild warning that sharper money likes the home side. And roughly 28% of MLB games are decided by a single run, so any road favorite needing a two-run cushion carries built-in risk. Scherzer is also a Hall of Fame competitor capable of stealing a quiet start on guile alone.
The Pick: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+110)
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Will the Scoreboard Stay Quiet?
The total is the second angle, and it leans on the same lefty. Books opened this number higher and have since trimmed it, a market nudge toward fewer runs even with Scherzer’s ugly ERA in the box score. Tolle’s swing-and-miss stuff is the reason. If he carries his recent form into Toronto, the Blue Jays’ half of the scoreboard should stay light.
Fair warning: this play shares a premise with the run line, since both bank on Tolle controlling the game. The counter is straightforward. Scherzer’s 7.25 ERA invites a Boston outburst, and if the Red Sox hang a crooked number early, the under can bust on its own even with Toronto quiet. The Blue Jays’ bats are hot, too. Getting the under at even money softens that risk and gives the play fair value.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor is Scherzer’s first turn through the order. If his command wanders early, Boston can grab the lead and let Tolle pitch with a cushion, which supports both plays at once. If the veteran finds a rhythm, Toronto’s hot lineup gets the close game it wants and the mild reverse line move looks smart. The middle innings matter, too, since a getaway-day bullpen call could tilt the total either way. There is no separate bonus wager worth forcing beyond the two plays already made. For more action across the slate, see our latest MLB best bets. To recap Thursday’s card: Red Sox run line -1.5 (+110) and Under 7.5 (+100).
MLB Red Sox vs. Blue Jays FAQ: Thursday August 13, 2026
What time does the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game start?
First pitch is set for 3:07 PM ET on Thursday, August 13, 2026, at Rogers Centre in Toronto. It is a getaway-day afternoon game that closes out the series between the two AL East clubs, with Boston sitting third in the division and Toronto fourth.
What channel is the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game on?
The game airs on NESN for Boston viewers and on Sportsnet for the Toronto broadcast. Regional availability varies by market, so blackout rules may apply depending on your location relative to each team’s home territory, and out-of-market fans should check their local listings.
Who is pitching for the Red Sox on Thursday?
Left-hander Payton Tolle starts for Boston, bringing a 3.20 ERA and 124 strikeouts into the outing after a 14-strikeout performance in his previous start. Toronto counters with veteran right-hander Max Scherzer, who is 1-4 with a 7.25 ERA this season.
Where are the Red Sox and Blue Jays playing today?
The teams meet at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, where the Blue Jays play their full home schedule. The venue features a retractable roof, which keeps outdoor conditions from becoming a factor when it is closed for a game and helps the ballpark play as a neutral run environment.
Who won the last meeting between the Red Sox and Blue Jays?
Toronto won the previous meeting 6-4 on August 12, 2026, its third straight victory over Boston in this series. The Blue Jays have controlled the recent head-to-head, taking each of the first three games at Rogers Centre this week.