The 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 takes the green flag Sunday, May 24, 2026, at 12:45 PM ET, with Alex Palou leading the 33-car field to the line from the pole. The defending champion enters race day at +275 odds and represents the obvious play. The longer view points elsewhere in the field.
Indy 500 history rewards survival as much as raw speed, and our top outright pick instead targets a two-time recent winner sitting at +800 with the kind of race-day résumé that holds up across 200 laps. Below are our 2026 Indy 500 predictions — top pick to win, mid-board value plays, and live longshots for bettors hunting ceiling.
Last Updated: Sunday, May 24, 2026
2026 INDIANAPOLIS 500 DATE, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Speedway, IN |
| When | Sunday, May 24 – 12:45 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Why Palou's Price Is Too Short at Indianapolis
The case for Palou is direct. He has won three of the first six races on the 2026 schedule, leads the IndyCar Series championship by 27 points, and claimed the pole with a four-lap qualifying average of 232.248 mph. Chip Ganassi Racing's No. 10 Honda has the speed and the operation to win this race.
The case against Palou is the number on the board. At +275, his implied probability sits near 26.7 percent — a steep ask for a race decided across 200 laps of traffic management, pit cycles, and clean restarts. The Indianapolis 500 has not been won by the pole-sitter since Hélio Castroneves in 2009. Pole-to-victory conversion at this track hovers in the single digits across the modern era.
The field quality compounds the issue. Nine past Indy 500 winners are in the entry list, multiple cars have shown comparable race trim, and the Sunday forecast — a 24 percent chance of rain with temperatures near 74 degrees per FOX Weather — could compress strategies and reward survival over qualifying-day pace. Backing the chalk means trusting that the fastest car also runs the cleanest race. That is a defensible bet. It is also one with very little margin for error at the price.
2026 INDIANAPOLIS 500 – TOP ODDS TO WIN | |
|---|---|
| Name | Odds |
| Alex Palou | +275 |
| David Malukas | +600 |
| Pato O'Ward | +750 |
| Josef Newgarden | +800 |
| Alexander Rossi | +1200 |
| Conor Daly | +1200 |
| Scott McLaughlin | +1400 |
| Santino Ferrucci | +1400 |
| Felix Rosenqvist | +1600 |
| Scott Dixon | +2200 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, May 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest IndyCar Odds - Props
2026 Indy 500 Top Pick: Josef Newgarden and Value Plays
Josef Newgarden is our outright winner pick at +800. The two-time Indianapolis 500 champion won back-to-back in 2023 and 2024 before Palou ended his three-peat bid last year. No active driver outside of Palou has a stronger recent race-day résumé at the Speedway, and the price implies just an 11.1 percent win probability — a soft number for a driver with this profile.
Newgarden also paced Friday's Carb Day final practice at 228.342 mph in the No. 2 Shell Fuel Rewards Team Penske Chevrolet, the strongest race-trim signal of the week. He starts 23rd after a difficult qualifying weekend, which is the main reason the price has drifted, but starting position correlates only loosely with finishing position at Indianapolis. Newgarden won from 17th in 2023 and from 5th in 2024. Track position matters less than late-race strategy, fuel management, and the final 30 laps.
The downside is real. Twenty-third is deep traffic, and the early stints will require patience and clean pit cycles to climb into contention. The upside, at this price, is a proven two-time winner with championship-caliber equipment trading well below his historical race-day ceiling.
Beyond Newgarden, two mid-board names round out the value tier. Pato O'Ward (+750) remains the perennial Indy 500 near-miss story. The Arrow McLaren driver has finished as a runner-up at the Brickyard and consistently runs near the front on race day. He crashed in Monday practice and rolls out in a backup car, but IndyCar rules let him retain his sixth-place qualifying position. Backup cars at Indianapolis have produced front-running results in recent years. Scott McLaughlin (+1400) has steadily improved on superspeedway ovals during his Team Penske tenure. He has not yet won the 500, but stable equipment and growing oval experience justify a sprinkle at a price that offers genuine upside.
2026 Indy 500 Longshot Picks and Race-Day Storylines
At +3500, Hélio Castroneves enters Sunday chasing a record fifth Indianapolis 500 victory. His limited 2026 schedule explains the long price, but few active drivers know how to close at this track better than the four-time winner. He remains a defensible sprinkle for bettors hunting ceiling.
Two-time winner Takuma Sato (2017, 2020) at +3300 has a long history of strong closing stints in the 500 and warrants a deep ticket. Kyffin Simpson at +4000 drives for Chip Ganassi Racing — the same operation that produced Palou's pole-winning entry — and the equipment alone makes him a sensible flier at the price.
Several storylines outside the betting board are worth tracking on race morning. Alexander Rossi crashed in Monday practice, underwent outpatient surgery on his right ankle and the middle finger of his left hand, and was cleared to drive at media day on Thursday. He will start second from a backup car, on crutches between sessions, with a custom brace fitted inside his race boot. Rookie Caio Collet and veteran Jack Harvey had their qualifying runs disallowed for unapproved car modifications and start 32nd and 33rd. Katherine Legge will attempt the Indianapolis 500 / Coca-Cola 600 "Double Duty," racing at Indianapolis before flying to Charlotte for the NASCAR Cup Series race that evening. Brendan Fraser is scheduled to wave the green flag, with Jordin Sparks performing the national anthem at 12:20 PM ET.
For a deeper breakdown of the full odds board and qualifying-week context, see our 2026 Indy 500 odds preview.
2026 Indianapolis 500 Predictions FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Indy 500?
Alex Palou is the favorite at +275 odds. The defending Indianapolis 500 champion qualified on the pole with a four-lap average of 232.248 mph and leads the IndyCar Series championship standings.
What is the top pick to win the 2026 Indy 500?
Our top outright pick is two-time Indianapolis 500 winner Josef Newgarden at +800. Newgarden led Carb Day final practice at 228.342 mph and has won the race in two of the last three years.
When is the 2026 Indy 500?
The 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 is scheduled for Sunday, May 24, 2026, with the green flag at 12:45 PM ET at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
What channel is the 2026 Indy 500 on?
The 2026 Indianapolis 500 will broadcast on FOX with pre-race coverage beginning at 10 AM ET. The national anthem is scheduled for 12:20 PM ET and the green flag drops at 12:45 PM ET.