Last Updated on January 26, 2026 10:29 am by Anthony Rome
With conference play heating up and numbers tightening across the board, value is coming less from raw power ratings and more from matchup edges, tempo mismatches, and situational spots. The following three games in our Monday College Hoops Best Bets Jan. 26 column stand out as smart betting opportunities based on how these teams actually play — not just who has the bigger name.
CBB Best Bet: Penn State +11.5 (at Ohio State)
At first glance, Ohio State laying double digits at home feels justified — they’re deeper, more athletic, and far more explosive offensively. But this number is inflated when you zoom into how Penn State competes and how Ohio State wins.
Penn State plays with one of the more disciplined half-court offenses in the Big Ten. They don’t turn the ball over much, they’re comfortable using the shot clock, and they rely heavily on efficient guard play to keep games manageable. That style travels well, especially as a big underdog. Even when Penn State loses, it’s often by staying within striking distance rather than getting run out.
Ohio State, meanwhile, thrives when games turn into track meets. Their scoring runs come in bunches, but they’re not always built to separate cleanly against teams that slow tempo and force them into longer possessions. The Buckeyes also tend to ease off defensively once they establish control, which opens the door for back-door covers.
With a total sitting at 154, books are expecting scoring — but not necessarily margin. Penn State doesn’t need to win, just avoid getting buried.
Pick: Penn State +11.5
CBB Best Bet: Louisville +8 (at Duke)
Duke at home is always a premium price, and that’s exactly what’s happening here. The Blue Devils have the talent edge, but this line assumes dominance rather than reality.
Louisville has quietly improved over the past few weeks, especially on the defensive end. They’re rotating better, contesting shots, and doing a much better job limiting second-chance points. Offensively, they’re far from elite, but they’ve been competitive because they’re getting to the line and knocking down timely perimeter shots.
Duke’s biggest weakness this season has been consistency. They can look overwhelming for 10-minute stretches, then stagnant for just as long. When their perimeter shots aren’t falling, their offense can bog down into isolation basketball, which keeps opponents hanging around longer than expected.
With the total set at 157, oddsmakers are projecting a fast pace and points — but if Louisville controls tempo even slightly and forces Duke into half-court sets, that spread becomes very playable. This has the feel of a game where Duke wins comfortably, but not comfortably enough.
Pick: Louisville +8
CBB Best Bet: Arizona -1.5 (at BYU)
This is the most intriguing game on the board — and the one where laying a small road number actually makes sense.
BYU is excellent offensively at home, but Arizona is one of the few teams built to withstand that environment. The Wildcats have length, defensive versatility, and multiple shot creators who can score without relying on pace. That’s critical against a BYU team that thrives when opponents can’t match their shooting bursts.
Arizona’s transition defense is a major edge here. They do a strong job getting back, protecting the rim, and forcing opponents to beat them with contested jumpers. Offensively, they’re efficient rather than reckless, which matters in a game with a massive total of 165.
With this number basically asking Arizona to win the game outright, the Wildcats’ ability to generate stops late and execute in close-game situations gives them the edge. This feels closer to a pick’em on paper, but Arizona is the more complete team.
Pick: Arizona -1.5
Monday CBB Best Bets Jan. 25
- Penn State +11.5
- Louisville +8
- Arizona -1.5
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