The NFL Divisional Round kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday when the Broncos host the Bills. Will Josh Allen once again carry Buffalo to victory? Or with the top-seeded Broncos send the Bills packing? Read on for our Bills vs. Broncos prediction.
Bills vs. Broncos Game Day Information
- 📅 Date: Saturday, January 16, 2026
- ⏰ Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
- 📍 Location: Empower Field at Mile High — Denver, CO
- 📺 TV: CBS
Opening line: Bills -1.5/Broncos +1.5
Setting the Stage: Betting & Momentum
This rematch features the 6-seed Buffalo Bills visiting the 1-seed Denver Broncos in a high-stakes AFC playoff battle. Denver earned a Week 1 bye and finished 14–3 behind a historically stout defense, while Buffalo’s thrilling 27–24 win vs. Jacksonville snapped a decades-long road playoff drought. Denver has now gained slight favorite status in the market, a sign of respect for the Broncos’ defense and Buffalo’s questionable health heading into the weekend.
Key Storylines
1. Josh Allen’s Grit vs. Denver’s Defense
Bills QB Josh Allen remains one of the most dangerous dual-threat talents in the postseason. He carved up Jacksonville with a touchdown pass and two rushing TDs in the Wild Card round, extending his franchise postseason records in total yardage and playoff touchdown production. Allen will need another big performance to combat Denver’s league-leading defense.
2. Broncos Defense: Sack Machine
Under Head Coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, Denver’s defense led the NFL with 68 sacks and ranked among the league’s best in yards and scoring defense. The Broncos will look to disrupt Allen early and force key turnovers.
3. Rematch From Last Year
Buffalo dominated this exact matchup a season ago, winning 31–7 in the Wild Card round. Denver enters with motivation for revenge, but Buffalo’s familiarity and Allen’s experience tilt the psychological balance.
4. Altitude & Preparation
Playing at mile-high altitude presents a unique challenge for visitors. Buffalo has prepared all week with altitude conditioning, and Allen’s Wyoming background gives him an edge in comfort, but Denver’s home environment still plays a role late in games.
Injury & Availability Report
Bills:
-
Out: S Jordan Poyer, CB Maxwell Hairston.
-
Questionable: LB Terrel Bernard, RB Ty Johnson, DT Ed Oliver, S Damar Hamlin, WR Curtis Samuel.
Buffalo’s depth takes a hit, especially in the secondary and pass-catching corps, though Allen is expected to play through soreness from recent injuries.
Broncos:
-
Healthier overall; LB Dre Greenlaw returns, TE Lucas Krull and LB Drew Sanders are out.
Denver’s defensive front remains largely intact and ready to go.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Matchup Breakdown
Bills Offense vs. Broncos Defense
Buffalo’s high-powered attack still excels when Allen is on rhythm, but Denver’s aggressive pass rush and disciplined coverage could slow Buffalo’s tempo and force uncomfortable down-and-distances.
Broncos Offense vs. Bills Defense
Bo Nix has developed into a reliable NFL starter, but inconsistencies remain in the passing attack. Denver’s ground game and time-of-possession strategy could be pivotal if the Bills get off to a slow defensive start.
X-Factor:
Depth at wide receiver for the Bills and whether Denver can turn pressure into points in key moments.
Bills vs. Broncos Final Score Projection
This will be a gritty, defensively driven playoff encounter. Denver’s home field, dominant defense, and healthier roster give them a slight edge early. But Josh Allen’s playoff savvy and Buffalo’s ability to convert big down plays will keep this game close.
Final Score Projection:
🏈 Bills 24, Broncos 21
Buffalo squeaks out a road playoff win thanks to a late Allen touchdown drive and key defensive stops.
The Pick: Bills +1.5
Responsible Gaming
For help and resources, visit our Responsible Gaming page or the National Council on Problem Gambling.
Affiliate Disclosure
We may receive affiliate commissions if you sign up through links on our site. Read our full Affiliate Disclosure.