Monday NBA Best Bets Jan. 12: Are Mavericks on Upset Alert?

Are the Mavericks on upset alert tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET when they host the Nets? Will the Clippers slow down a hot ATS team in the Hornets at 10:30 p.m. ET? And can the 76ers and Raptors combine for enough points to cash the over at 7:30 p.m. ET in Toronto? Our Monday NBA Best Bets Jan. 12 article offers selections on all three of these matchups.

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NBA Best Bet: 76ers/Raptors over 221

Why the Total Projects High:
This matchup has momentum toward scoring, especially after Sunday’s overtime classic where Toronto edged Philly 116–115 in OT, signaling offensive firepower on both ends. Scottie Barnes led Toronto with 31 points while Tyrese Maxey dropped 38 for Philly. That game alone produced 231 points, a strong indication that both teams can put up big numbers when healthy and engaged.

Injury & Rotation Considerations:

Joel Embiid is out again with left knee/groin issues, which traditionally smothers Philly’s half-court offense.
Paul George was a late scratch on Sunday and remains questionable Monday, further thinning Philly’s defense.
Toronto has its own injury challenges — Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl have missed time — but Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and Jamal Shead still produce efficient offense.

Offensive Context:
This recent game went to OT with 115–115 regulation, putting the regulation total at 230 before extra minutes. With Embiid out, the pace should remain fast, as Philly will look to push the ball and play small lineups, and Toronto thrives in transition. When two teams combine to score 115 each in one matchup despite injuries on both sides, the blueprint favors another Over result if both squads keep it competitive.

Conclusion:
Given recent scoring trends, pace, and stretched defenses (especially without Embiid), Over 221 has a legitimate shot to hit in regulation — and then some.

NBA Best Bet: Nets +3.5 (at Mavericks)

Brooklyn’s Defensive Identity:
While the Nets aren’t a glamorous team, they’ve shown they can stay competitive. Brooklyn kept games close even in losses — including a narrow 103–98 defeat to Memphis where they nearly pulled off a comeback.

Injury/Rest Factors:

Michael Porter Jr. is being rested strategically, not injured, which suggests Brooklyn could still compete with energy at Dallas.
Nets head coach Jordi Fernández has leaned on younger pieces like Danny Wolf and Noah Clowney, and they’ve responded offensively despite roster churn.

Mavericks Situation:
Dallas is dealing with a significant absence — Anthony Davis is out for multiple months with a hand ligament issue. While Davis isn’t currently on Dallas’s roster (having been part of a trade earlier in the season), his extended injury history underscores the continuing instability around Dallas’s lineup and rotations.

Spread Value:
Dallas games can be up and down, and Brooklyn’s defense — specifically their ability to limit efficient looks — makes a single-digit road spread like +3.5 worth consideration. With Nets’s defensive effort generally underrated and Mavericks still searching for consistent two-way identity, the Nets +3.5 provides cushion and value.

NBA Best Bet: Clippers -4.5 (vs. Hornets)

Clippers Form & Matchup Advantage:
Los Angeles enters this contest with an established identity — tough defense paired with clutch offense from stars like Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. In a recent outing, Kawhi poured in 45 points, fueling a 118-101 win and showcasing his ability to dominate when healthy.

Hornets Struggles:
Charlotte has been projected as one of the league’s lower win-total teams this season, and they lack consistent offensive efficiency and defensive stops against deeper lineups like the Clippers. While not unbeatable, their weaknesses get magnified against playoff-caliber wings and two-way stars.

Home Court Leverage:
The Clippers, especially when Leonard plays big minutes, create spacing and defensive pressure that strains younger, less disciplined offenses like Charlotte’s. That dynamic should keep the margin comfortably above a modest -4.5 line — especially as L.A. looks to protect home court and secure a quality win.