This AFC Wild Card clash matches two of the NFL’s most talented rosters in a game with major implications — the Bills looking to start their Super Bowl chase, and the Jaguars aiming to extend a huge late-season surge and steal home-field advantage. With Buffalo laying a single point and the total sitting at 51.5, what’s the smart bet in this Bills vs. Jaguars NFL Wild Card Weekend playoff clash?
Bills vs. Jaguars Game Day Information
- 📅 Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- 🕐 Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- 📍 Venue: EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL
- 📺 TV: CBS
Opening line: Bills -1.5/Jaguars +1.5
Season Storylines & Context
Buffalo Bills — Balanced & Battle Tested
The Bills finished 12–5 behind veteran QB Josh Allen, who completed nearly 70% of his passes for around 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and added 14 rushing scores — despite drawing pressure and a career-high sack total. His leadership and dual-threat ability anchor a Buffalo offense that mixes power running with explosive playmakers.
RB James Cook finished the season as the NFL’s top rusher with 1,621 yards and double-digit rushing scores, giving the Bills a legitimate 1-2 punch on the ground. Tight end Dalton Kincaid returns from injury this week, a significant boost for Allen in the red zone and on intermediate throws.
Defensively, Buffalo’s pass defense has been elite, but its run defense struggled, allowing opponents to average over 136 rushing yards per game.
However, Buffalo’s biggest story might be injuries: LB Terrel Bernard, CB Maxwell Hairston, and S Damar Hamlin are out, and several others — including WR Josh Palmer and kicker Matt Prater — are questionable for this contest.
Jacksonville Jaguars — Surging & Underrated
The Jaguars enter at 13–4 and have been one of the NFL’s hottest teams, winning eight in a row entering the postseason while averaging over 33 points per game during that stretch. Led by QB Trevor Lawrence, now a legitimate MVP candidate, Jacksonville’s offense has balanced passing and physical playmaking. Wide receivers like Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington give Lawrence trusted targets in key situations.
Defensively, Jacksonville is elite at forcing turnovers and stifling opponents’ running games — a tough test for any rushing attack.
Keys to the Game
Bills Must Minimize Mistakes
Buffalo’s success often correlates with Allen avoiding turnovers. Jacksonville’s defense ranks among the league’s best in takeaways — a critical advantage in a one-and-done playoff game.
Getting the running game established with Cook and Ray Davis will help take pressure off Allen, especially if Buffalo’s offensive line continues to give up pressure.
Jaguars Need to Control Tempo
Jacksonville thrives when it dictates tempo, using a balanced attack and strong protection up front. If Lawrence gets comfortable early and the Jaguars can put sustained drives together, that will keep Buffalo’s potent offense off the field and drain clock late.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Matchup Storylines
Allen vs. Lawrence
Both quarterbacks can beat you in multiple ways. Allen’s rushing adds another threat dimension, while Lawrence’s accuracy and decision-making late in the season have been key to Jacksonville’s surge.
Rush Games & Run Defense
Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing yardage propelled by Cook — but Jacksonville’s run defense is among the better units in the league. How these ground attacks fare will influence tempo, play calling, and big-down situations.
Injury & Availability Notes
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Bills: Bernard (out), Hairston (out), Hamlin (out); Kincaid expected to play; Palmer and Prater questionable.
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Jaguars: Most starters expected to be available with minor injury questions (e.g., Patrick Mekari, Montaric Brown).
Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction & Score Projection
This matchup has all the makings of a tight, physical playoff game. Jacksonville’s momentum and defensive prowess give them a slight edge, especially at home. Buffalo’s experience and offensive versatility keep the game close, but turnovers and time-of-possession battles could tilt the effort.
🔮 Final Score Projection:
Jaguars 34, Bills 31
Expect a competitive game decided by a late drive or turnover — with Jacksonville’s confidence and home crowd ultimately making the difference.
The Pick: OVER 51.5
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