Oregon vs. Indiana Playoff Prediction: Hoosiers on Upset Alert?

Following Miami’s dramatic, last-minute win over Ole Miss on Thursday night, the Oregon vs. Indiana College Football Playoff semi-finals matchup on Friday will determine which teams clashes in the national championship. With the Ducks laying 3.5 points and the total sitting at 48.5, what’s the best bet tonight in Atlanta?

Oregon vs. Indiana Game Information

• 📅 Friday, January 9, 2026
• 🕢 Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
• 📍 Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, GA

Oregon vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Who Is The Public Betting

Numbers update frequently — check the latest splits on our college football public betting chart before placing any bets.

🔥 Stakes & Context

This is one of the final four games in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff. Both teams have historic seasons on the line:

• Indiana Hoosiers are 14-0, unbeaten, and seeking their first National Championship game.

• Oregon Ducks are 13-1, coming off a dominant Orange Bowl shutout vs. Texas Tech.

These teams already met once during the regular season — Indiana won 30-20 at Autzen Stadium — and now Oregon seeks revenge on the playoff stage.

🧠 Key Storylines

📌 Indiana’s Rise to Elite Status

Indiana’s season has been historic — the Hoosiers claimed the Big Ten title, finished unbeaten, and feature explosive offensive balance and elite defense. They’re coached by Curt Cignetti, who has transformed the program into a national contender.

Heisman Trophy winner QB Fernando Mendoza leads one of the most efficient attacks in the country, making this offense lethal in both the pass and run games.

Meanwhile, Indiana’s defense is stout, disciplined, and among the nation’s best — especially at limiting turnovers and stopping explosive plays.

⭐ Players to Watch

📍 Indiana Hoosiers

• Fernando Mendoza, QB — Heisman Trophy winner and driving force of Indiana’s offense. Mendoza has tossed 36 TD passes with only 6 interceptions, showing elite efficiency and leadership.

• Omar Cooper Jr., WR — A big-play receiver with 62 receptions for 873 yards and 12 TDs this season.

• Roman Hemby, RB — A 1,000-yard rusher who provides balance to the Hoosier attack.

• Elijah Sarratt, WR — Another scoring threat with 13 TDs.

• Rolijah Hardy, LB — Defensive leader with double-digit tackles for loss and relentless pressure.

• Charlie Becker, WR — Emerging as a clutch playmaker down the stretch.

📍 Oregon Ducks

• Dante Moore, QB — Oregon’s offensive centerpiece and top NFL prospect. He’s been highly efficient all season, including in the quarterfinal win, but struggled in the previous matchup vs. Indiana with multiple turnovers.

• Noah Whittington, RB — The Ducks’ leading rusher (829 yards, 6 TDs) and the clear focal point of Oregon’s ground game with Jordon Davison out.

• Dierre Hill Jr., RB — Secondary rushing option with big-play ability.

• Jay Harris, RB — Power back entering the transfer portal but available for the game; his toughness could be key without Davison.

• Kenyon Sadiq, TE — A matchup issue at tight end and a key red-zone target.

🎯 Team Strengths & Weaknesses

Indiana Hoosiers

Strengths:

• Efficient, balanced offense with elite QB play.

• Defensive discipline and turnover avoidance.

• Strong performances in big games (beat Alabama by 35 in quarterfinals).

Weaknesses:

• Pressure on defense to contain Oregon’s high-tempo passing game.

Oregon Ducks

Strengths:

• High-powered offense capable of scoring in bunches.

• Top-tier pass completion percentage and playmakers at multiple positions.

Weaknesses:

• Key injuries and transfers have thinned the depth chart.

• Turnovers and pass protection issues killed them in the first meeting.

📊 Statistical Snapshot (2025)

🔍 Key Matchup: Mendoza vs. Moore

Fernando Mendoza brings precision and efficiency to Indiana’s offense and will test Oregon’s secondary all night.

Dante Moore must protect the football and avoid the mistakes that dogged him in the earlier loss; Oregon’s chances improve if he can exploit Indiana’s aggressive pass rush without turnovers.

🏆 Final Prediction

Both teams are elite, but Indiana’s combination of efficient offense, stingy defense, and depth edges Oregon in a tight playoff battle.

🔮 Final Score Prediction:
🏈 Indiana 31, Oregon 24

Expect a competitive, strategic game — but Indiana’s discipline and execution should be just enough to punch their ticket to the National Championship.

The Pick: Indiana -3.5

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