Last Updated on December 27, 2025 12:41 pm by Anthony Rome
North Texas and San Diego State meet in a classic contrast game to close out the December 27 bowl slate. It’s tempo and offense versus defense and discipline, with North Texas looking to turn the game into a shootout while San Diego State tries to slow things down and win a physical battle. From a betting standpoint, this matchup comes down to whether North Texas can sustain scoring against one of the more structured defenses in the Group of Five. What’s the smart bet in this North Texas vs. San Diego State matchup?
North Texas vs. San Diego State Game Information
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Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
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Kickoff: 5:45 p.m. ET
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Location: University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, NM
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TV: ESPN
North Texas vs. San Diego State Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | ML |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | -7 | 52.5 | -270 |
| San Diego State | +7 | 52.5 | +225 |
Who Is The Public Betting
| Team | % of Bets | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 69% | -6 | -7 |
| San Diego State | 31% | -6 | +7 |
Numbers update frequently — check the latest splits on our college football public betting chart before placing any bets.
🟢 North Texas Team Breakdown
North Texas once again leaned into its identity as one of the most tempo-driven offenses in the Group of Five. The Mean Green play fast, spread defenses out, and are comfortable throwing early and often.
Key strengths:
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Up-tempo offense that stresses defensive depth
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Strong quarterback play with multiple receiving threats
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Ability to score quickly and flip momentum
Concerns:
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Defense struggles against physical run games
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Can be exposed in time-of-possession battles
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Inconsistent red-zone efficiency
North Texas’ success hinges on getting early scores and forcing San Diego State out of its comfort zone.
🔴 San Diego State Team Breakdown
San Diego State’s formula remains familiar: defense first, control the run, and limit mistakes. While the Aztecs aren’t built to win shootouts, they are excellent at turning games into physical, low-margin battles.
Key strengths:
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Disciplined defense, especially against the run
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Strong linebacker play and gap control
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Effective at limiting explosive plays
Concerns:
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Limited offensive explosiveness
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Can struggle if forced into catch-up mode
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Passing game lacks consistency
If San Diego State dictates tempo, this game tilts strongly in their favor.
🔑 Matchup Storylines
Tempo vs. Control:
North Texas wants possessions and pace. San Diego State wants long drives and few mistakes.
Physicality Factor:
The Aztecs’ ability to run the ball and keep their defense fresh could wear down North Texas over four quarters.
Red-Zone Execution:
Field goals versus touchdowns will be critical — especially for North Texas.
🎯 Prediction
This game feels close throughout, but bowl games often reward teams that travel well defensively and play mistake-free football. San Diego State’s ability to slow the game down and limit North Texas’ explosive plays should be the difference late.
Final Prediction:
➡️ San Diego State 28, North Texas 24 (take the Aztecs +7)
North Texas hits some big plays early, but San Diego State’s defense tightens in the second half and controls the game flow just enough to secure the win.
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