Last Updated on October 4, 2025 6:56 am by Anthony Rome
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: No. 3 Miami Hurricanes at No. 18 Florida State Seminoles
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025 — 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, FL)
Miami vs Florida State odds — Opening numbers
- Spread (open): Miami −6.5 (some early −7)
- Moneyline (open): Miami ~−220 / Florida State ~+180
- Total (open): 54.5
- Notes: Books hung Miami just under a full TD with an Over set in the mid-50s.
Miami vs Florida State betting line — Current market
- Spread (now): Miami −4 (range −4 to −5)
- Moneyline (now): ~Miami −188 / Florida State +158
- Total (now): 54.5 (some 54.0 or 55.0)
- Market read: Early FSU interest trimmed the spread off the opener; totals holding mid-50s with light two-way play.
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Public tickets — Miami vs Florida State splits
- ATS tickets: Slight majority on Miami at −4.5; dog buyback appears when shops hit +5.
- Total tickets: Balanced to a modest Over lean at 54.5.
- Read: If the market tests −4 widely, expect Miami tickets to spike; at −5, interest evens out.
Injuries & weather
- Miami: Front seven rotation trending healthy; WR depth monitored through walkthroughs.
- Florida State: A couple of defensive backfield questionables; check final statuses on game day.
- Weather: Warm evening in Tallahassee, light wind; conditions favor a clean offensive script.
Trends that matter
- Miami’s defense has lived in the top-10 efficiency tier; market’s mid-50s total accounts for explosive plays on both sides.
- Home dogs in this rivalry have drawn late support when the spread sits between +4 and +6.
- First halves often play tighter than full-game closes with early scripted drives and cautious tempo.
Expert pick & buy points
Pick: Miami −4.5 (flat). The trench edge plus drive-finishing advantage nudges this toward the Canes inside five.
- Buy up to: −5 (trim stake at −5.5)
- Sell down to: −4 if you need a parlay leg
- Alt options: Over 54 lean if you can capture 54.0 at standard juice.
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