Bengals vs Broncos SGP — MNF Week 4 Picks

Our Bengals vs Broncos SGP for Monday Night Football leans into a script where Denver’s altitude and defense shape pace early, while Cincinnati’s pass game eventually pushes the total; we stack a Bengals-side angle with measured receiver volume and a flexible total band, then add alternates to adapt to late line moves.

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Bengals vs Broncos SGP — Core Build (3–4 Legs)

1) Bengals Moneyline or -2.5 (alt spread)

• Buy range: ML to -2.5 (keep standard juice ≤ -130).
• Rationale: If Cincinnati protects the pocket, their explosive-pass rate supports a Bengals-side outcome and correlates with our receiver/total legs.

2) Game Total Over (alt band 41.5–47.5)

• Buy range: 41.5–45.5 conservative; 46.5–47.5 only at favorable pricing.
• Rationale: A late-game push from Cincinnati, plus short fields or DPI swings, often nudges MNF totals into the mid-40s.

3) Bengals WR1 Receiving Yards — Over (or 70+ alt)

• Buy range: Main 70.5–84.5; alt ladder 70+/90+ for small sprinkles.
• Rationale: Star WR usage concentrates in tight games; explosive targets also mesh with the Over and Bengals ML/-2.5.

4) Broncos RB Receptions — Over (safety valve)

• Buy range: 2.5–3.5 (price-sensitive; avoid heavy juice).
• Rationale: If trailing or facing pressure looks, Denver leans on outlet receptions, which still cooperate with an Over script.

Note: Should late money trim the spread or total, rebuild the Bengals vs Broncos SGP with Bengals ML (instead of -2.5) and the lower end of the Over band while keeping receiver volume in place.

Alternates & Ladder Ideas

• Bengals Team Total: Over 22.5–24.5 aligns with ML/alt -2.5 and supports the main Over.
• WR Ladder: 90+/100+ small sprinkles; if bracket coverage shows, pivot to WR2 50+ or TE 30+.
• 1H Angles: Bengals 1H ML + small full-game Over if main total stalls on a key number.

Correlation & Risk Management

• Build logic: Bengals side + Over + WR yards + Broncos checkdowns all support a single pace/pressure script.
• Actives/inactives (90 mins pre-kick): Verify OL/WR/CB statuses; if OL downgrades hit, reduce spread exposure and favor receptions props.
• Bankroll: Keep SGPs to 0.25–0.5u; correlated doesn’t mean low-variance.

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