Last Updated on September 19, 2025 8:24 am by Michael Cash
Chasing MLB Best Bets September 19 2025? Today’s slate lines up clear moneyline edges and a pair of contrarian underdogs. Start with our latest MLB betting articles for context, then use the live percentages on our MLB public betting chart to time the market. Below you’ll find Friday MLB Best Bets, long-shot value plays, a moneyline-only public betting snapshot, actionable trends, and a concise Today’s Card (picks only) so you can move fast with confidence.
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Friday MLB Best Bets
1) New York Mets ML (–170) vs Washington Nationals — 7:10 PM ET
Why we like it: The Mets carry a sizable run-prevention edge and a deeper leverage bridge at home. If New York wins counts early, their bat-missing bullpen can script the final frames.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers ML (–180) vs San Francisco Giants — 10:10 PM ET
Why we like it: L.A. pairs on-base skill with superior swing-and-miss and late-inning depth. Multiple win paths in a familiar division spot justify the price.
3) Toronto Blue Jays ML (–120) @ Kansas City Royals — 7:40 PM ET
Why we like it: Toronto’s OBP and contact-quality edges travel, and their leverage arms shorten the game. Road favorite tag is supported by matchup and bullpen metrics.
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Today’s MLB Long Shot Picks
1) Baltimore Orioles ML (+105) vs New York Yankees — 7:05 PM ET
Why it’s live: Market shade toward New York creates a short plus-money tag at home. Baltimore’s lineup depth and cleaner late innings provide a credible upset path.
2) Miami Marlins ML (+115) @ Texas Rangers — 8:05 PM ET
Why it’s live: The price bakes in a premium on Texas; Miami’s contact suppression and improved bullpen keep this within one swing late.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only)
Use our live splits to time the market: MLB public betting percentages (moneyline)
- Mets: public majority — aligned with our play.
- Dodgers: public majority — aligned with our play.
- Blue Jays: public majority — aligned with our play.
- Yankees: public majority — Public on NYY; value may lie with Baltimore.
- Rangers: public majority — Public on TEX; value may lie with Miami.
Trends & Notes
- Home favorites in the –160 to –200 band with top-half bullpens close efficiently when leading after 6 (fits Dodgers).
- Favorites with OBP + K-rate edges hold late-series win expectancy on the road (fits Blue Jays).
- Short dogs (+100 to +120) gain EV when public support on the favorite exceeds ~60–70% (fits Orioles, Marlins).
Today’s Card — Friday, September 19, 2025 (ET, picks only)
- Nationals @ Mets — NYM –170 (7:10 PM)
- Giants @ Dodgers — LAD –180 (10:10 PM)
- Blue Jays @ Royals — TOR –120 (7:40 PM)
- Yankees @ Orioles — BAL +105 (7:05 PM)
- Marlins @ Rangers — MIA +115 (8:05 PM)
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