2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Odds, Picks & Preview (Darlington)

2025 Cook Out Southern 500 picks 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 picks

The 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 returns to Darlington Raceway on Sunday, August 31, opening the playoffs at NASCAR’s famed “Track Too Tough to Tame.” Expect long green-flag runs, brutal tire wear, and high-stakes strategy as contenders chase an early postseason statement. Below you’ll find current odds to win, our picks & predictions, key track and race details, last year’s winner, and a concise race-day weather outlook to guide your card.

Cook Out Southern 500 Race Info

  • Event: NASCAR Cup Series — Cook Out Southern 500 (Playoff Round of 16 opener)
  • Date / Time: Sunday, August 31, 2025 — 6:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Darlington Raceway (Darlington, SC)
  • Broadcast: USA Network | Radio: MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
  • Distance: 367 laps / ~501 miles
  • Track Type: 1.366-mile asymmetrical oval (abrasive surface; long-run handling matters).

Track Fast Facts

  • Banking: ~25° (Turns 1–2), ~23° (Turns 3–4); ~3–5° on straights
  • Keys to Winning: Tire management, clean pit execution, late-run balance, track position

Last Year’s Winner (2024)

Chase Briscoe earned a statement victory in the 2024 Southern 500, sealing a playoff berth with long-run speed and clutch late-race execution.


Anticipated Weather — Summary

Warm and partly sunny afternoon trending to a mild, dry evening. Falling track temps after sunset should emphasize tire wear and long-run balance. Low rain risk.


Current Odds to Win — Cook Out Southern 500 (Bovada snapshot; subject to change)

  • Denny Hamlin +500
  • Kyle Larson +550
  • William Byron +650
  • Ryan Blaney +700
  • Tyler Reddick +700
  • Christopher Bell +1200
  • Chase Briscoe +1400
  • Joey Logano +1600
  • Bubba Wallace +2000
  • Chris Buescher +2000
  • Ross Chastain +2200
  • Brad Keselowski +2500
  • Chase Elliott +2500
  • Kyle Busch +2800
  • Josh Berry +3000
  • Ryan Preece +3300
  • Alex Bowman +4000
  • Austin Cindric +4000
  • Carson Hocevar +4000
  • Ty Gibbs +4000
  • Erik Jones +8000
  • Austin Dillon +15000
  • Daniel Suárez +20000
  • AJ Allmendinger +25000
  • Michael McDowell +25000
  • Noah Gragson +30000
  • Todd Gilliland +30000
  • John Hunter Nemechek +35000
  • Zane Smith +35000
  • Justin Haley +40000
  • Shane van Gisbergen +40000
  • Cole Custer +50000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +50000
  • Ty Dillon +75000
  • Riley Herbst +100000
  • Cody Ware +200000
  • Derek Kraus +300000
  • Josh Bilicki +300000

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Picks & Predictions

Top Picks

  • Kyle Larson (+550): Elite at Darlington; excels as the run stretches and others fade on tires.
  • Denny Hamlin (+500): Master of managing fall-off; repeatedly dangerous in crown-jewel night races.

Value Plays

  • Joey Logano (+1600): Track position flips + crisp pit work give him late-race leverage.
  • Bubba Wallace (+2000): Intermediate-track speed profile fits; clean day yields top-five equity.

Long-Shot Sprinkles

  • Erik Jones (+8000): Proven Darlington feel; right cautions could put him in the mix.
  • Michael McDowell (+25000): Overachieves on abrasive surfaces; pit timing + long-run steadiness are the path.

Live-Bet Angle

  • Prioritize cars whose lap times stabilize after 25–30 laps—that’s the signal for night-phase strength at Darlington.

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2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Snapshot

  • When/Where: Sun Aug 31, 20256:00 p.m. ET, Darlington Raceway (SC)
  • Layout/Distance: 1.366-mi oval; 367 laps / ~501 miles
  • 2024 Winner: Chase Briscoe
  • Weather: Warm start → cooler evening; low rain risk; tire wear elevated
  • Board Leaders: Hamlin, Larson, Byron
  • Value Targets: Logano, Wallace; Long-shots: Jones, McDowell.