Last Updated on August 13, 2025 11:43 pm by Anthony Rome
On Thursday, August 14, 2025, the Braves (52–68) visit Citi Field to take on the Mets (64–56), with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will air on SNY and FanDuel Sports Network Southeast. What’s the smart bet in tonight’s Braves vs. Mets matchup?
Braves vs. Mets Game Info
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
7:10 p.m. ET, Thursday, August 14, 2025
Citi Field, Queens, NY
Braves vs. Mets Public Betting & Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mets are -184 moneyline favorites to beat the Braves, who are +165 underdogs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 8.5 runs.
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting data page shows that the majority of public bettors are on the Mets.
Pitching Matchup
On the mound, Atlanta sends Bryce Elder, who enters with a 4–9 record and 6.12 ERA over 19 starts this season, along with 81 strikeouts. Elder has struggled with consistency and effectiveness throughout the year and carries one of the higher ERAs among starters.
Opposing him is the Mets’ ace, Kodai Senga, who boasts a strong 7–4 record and a 2.30 ERA, striking out 88 batters in 94 2/3 innings. At Citi Field, Senga has been particularly sharp—amassing 47 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings, marking him as a tough foe at home. However, there’s a caveat: recent reports indicate that Senga battled a hamstring strain and was placed on the injured list in June after leading the majors with a remarkable 1.47 ERA. While his excellent numbers earlier in the season are undeniable, there’s an air of uncertainty about his current form and endurance.
Game Preview
Offensively, the Braves have produced 504 runs (4.2 per game), ranking 22nd in MLB, with 133 homers (17th overall) and a team batting average of .242 (20th). Their pitching staff, meanwhile, has an ERA of 4.30, placing 22nd in the league. Matt Olson leads the charge for Atlanta with 19 home runs, 71 RBIs, and a .264 average; Marcell Ozuna is also tied at 19 homers. On the Mets’ side, key bats include Juan Soto (28 HR), Pete Alonso (28 HR, 96 RBI), and Francisco Lindor, with Brandon Nimmo adding solid on-base play.
Looking at recent matchups, the series opener featured a high-scoring affair—18 runs between both teams—and the over has hit in three of the last four meetings. At the same time, FOX Sports projects a Mets win, 4–3, with an under 8.5 total and a 56% win probability for New York. A data-driven model from Stats Insider gives the Mets a more commanding 64% win probability at home, and suggests the under 8.5 runs might hold as well.
Some additional narrative context highlights that while Senga has been dominant overall this season, his recent production has been uneven—he hasn’t completed five innings in four of his last five starts and has seen control issues arise. Meanwhile, the Braves are historically one of the Mets’ toughest divisional opponents, with a rivalry that often brings out tight, intense matchups regardless of records.
Braves vs. Mets Betting Prediction
This clash pits an inconsistent Braves pitcher against a high-upside—albeit possibly rusty—Mets ace, with both offenses capable of delivering timely hits but also trending toward low-to-moderate scoring.
In what promises to be a strategic pitchers’ duel, New York holds the slight edge, thanks to Senga’s talent and Citi Field comfort—but only if he’s healthy and sharp. The Braves’ offense, while not elite, always threatens to break through, especially given Senga’s recent inconsistency. Expect a low-scoring but competitive contest, favoring the Mets by a slim margin.
Braves vs. Mets MLB PREDICTION: UNDER 8.5