Last Updated on August 4, 2025 6:58 am by Anthony Rome
Monday night at Citizens Bank Park brings a cross‑league clash as the Baltimore Orioles (51‑61, 24‑34 road) send left‑hander Cade Povich (2‑5, 5.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) to face Philadelphia Phillies’ southpaw Jesús Luzardo (9‑5, 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). What’s the best bet in tonight’s Orioles vs. Phillies matchup?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies
6:45 p.m. ET, Monday, August 4, 2025
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Orioles vs. Phillies Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Phillies are -205 moneyline favorites to beat the Orioles, who are +170 moneyline underdogs. The total, meanwhile, is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Orioles vs. Phillies Public Betting: Bettors Love Philly
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting Page shows that 71% of the bets are on the Phillies moneyline. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Cade Povich — Orioles’ young lefty
Povich returns to action after a stint on the IL for left hip inflammation, marking his first start since mid‑June. The former Nebraska standout, now 25, has flashed strikeout capability—68 Ks in 64.2 innings—but his ERA over 5.10 and elevated WHIP reflect inconsistent command and susceptibility to hard contact, including 10 home runs allowed. Opposing right‑handed hitters have feasted on his offerings this year, slugging .464, which doesn’t bode well against a Phillies lineup loaded with right‑handed power.
Jesús Luzardo — Phillies’ steadier stabilization
Luzardo brings stability to Philly’s rotation. Over 121 innings, he’s generated a team‑leading 140 strikeouts while keeping walks in check (44) and limiting long balls (just 10). Though right‑handed bats have had some success against him (around a .277 average), he’s tough on left‑handed hitters (just a .200 average allowed), a trend that could play to his advantage against Baltimore’s lefty bats.
Team context and trends
The Phillies have been formidable at home this season, posting a 35‑20 record at Citizens Bank Park and topping the NL East at 63‑48 overall. Meanwhile, Baltimore has struggled away from Camden Yards (24‑34) and remains in the cellar of the AL East. Offensively, Philadelphia ranks among the league’s better scoring teams, averaging around 4.6 runs per game and sitting fifth in batting average (.254). Baltimore is more middle‑of‑the‑pack offensively, though still below average in ERA (4.82) and batting average (.243).
Orioles vs. Phillies MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Given Luzardo’s consistency, home advantage, and the mismatch against a struggling rookie, the Phillies are poised to take game one of this series.
Final call: Phillies win, likely with room to spare. The smart play is backing Philadelphia on the run line and expecting a total hovering around or above nine runs if Bella punches through.
Orioles vs. Phillies MLB Playoffs Prediction: OVER 8.5