Last Updated on July 31, 2025 10:21 pm by Anthony Rome
The Phoenix Mercury (16–10) will travel to College Park to face the Atlanta Dream (16–11) at Gateway Center Arena. These two Western vs. Eastern Conference teams recently met on July 23, when Atlanta secured a 90–79 home win over Phoenix—marking Atlanta’s 1–0 edge in the early season series. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Mercury vs. Dream matchup?
Mercury vs. Dream WNBA Event Info
Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream
7:30 p.m. ET, Friday, August 1, 2025
Gateway Center, College Park, GA
TV: ION
Mercury vs. Dream Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mercury are 3-point road favorites to beat the Dream. The total, meanwhile, sits at 165 points.
Game Preview
Phoenix enters this matchup just 1.5-point underdogs on the road, with implied win probability around 63% for the Dream and an over/under around 165–166 total points. The trend of high-scoring games continues, with both teams surpassing this total in roughly half their contests.
Team Overviews
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix is averaging 83.8 PPG while allowing 80.9 PPG, ranking around mid‐league on both ends. Fresh off a thrilling 107–101 loss to Indiana, highlights include Alyssa Thomas’s 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 7 assists, with Kahleah Copper adding 22 more. Their style is paced, and they’ve gone 14–12 both straight up and against the spread.
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta has shown balance and momentum, winning their last outing on the road over Dallas. Allisha Gray (18.3 PPG) leads the team, supported by strong contributions from Rhyne Howard and Brionna Jones, with Naz Hillmon adding 21 points off the bench in the Dallas win. The Dream average 83.6 PPG and allow just 79.1 PPG—their home defense is particularly stingy, giving up ~77.1 PPG at home.
Matchup Storylines
Inside-out battle: Phoenix relies heavily on Thomas and Sabally down low, while Atlanta counters with the post strength of Griner (probable status GTD) and Jones. Atlanta’s interior defense and home crowd may tip the interior battle in their favor.
Backcourt duel: Gray and Howard form one of the league’s best guard duos for Atlanta, while Phoenix tries to find consistency behind Sabally and Copper.
Pace and scoring trends: Both teams tend toward uptempo games and have cleared totals near or above 165 in many recent matchups. Over 165.5 has been the lean among betting models.
Mercury vs. Dream Prediction
With Phoenix carrying fatigue from a high-scoring loss in Indiana and Atlanta riding home momentum, the Dream appear set to defend home court closely. Betting consensus leans toward Atlanta moneyline and ATS value at +1.5.
Predicted final score: Dream 88, Mercury 82
Expect Atlanta to control the pace on home floor, clamp down defensively in the paint, and edge out a double-digit rebound advantage. Phoenix should stay competitive, but Atlanta’s guard play and home energy push them over the top.
Mercury vs. Dream Prediction: OVER 165