NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 Prediction: Will Hamlin win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway?

Brickyard 400 Brickyard 400

Last Updated on July 27, 2025 8:59 am by Anthony Rome

This weekend, the Brickyard 400 caps off NASCAR’s inaugural In‑Season Challenge, with the winner of this race claiming the $1 million prize in addition to a Cup Series victory. As the final crown jewel race on the 2.5‑mile IMS oval, strategy and draft‑play will be key on the wide straights and flatter corners typical of the Brickyard layout. The green flag drops at 2:00 p.m. ET with coverage on TNT.

Brickyard 400 Event Information

What: Brickyard 400

When: 2:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 27, 2025

Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Watch: TNT, truTV and HBO Max

Brickyard 400 Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, Kyle Larson is a +400 favorite. William Byron is +700, Chase Briscore is +800 and Denny Hamlin is +850. Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick, meanwhile, are +1100, respectively. Christopher Bell is +1200 to win the Brickyard 400, while Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher and Ty Gibbs are all +1600, respectively. Brad Keselowski is +1800.

Season momentum heavily favors Denny Hamlin, fresh off his Dover win and holding four Cup victories so far—with several strong Pocono (a track similar to Indy) performances under his belt. He’s finished top‑5 in seven of his last eight Brickyard starts.

Kyle Larson, the defending Brickyard oval winner, also profiles as a top contender in strong equipment and with proven speed at IMS. William Byron, tied for favoritism in some books, enters with solid speed and a big-season Daytona 500 win, but uneven recent form clouds his Brickyard upside.

Value plays center on Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Chris Buescher, all showing speed on 2.5‑mile tracks and offering appealing mid‑range odds for those seeking upside. Joey Logano, although longer at around +2000–2800, has a deep history at IMS with multiple top‑10s over 13 starts and a strong record of consistency.

Prediction & Betting Outlook

1. Primary Pick – Denny Hamlin

With dominant season form, strength at Pocono-like tracks, and strong Brickyard history, Hamlin is the logical favorite. His Dover win earlier in July sets a confident tone for another top result.

2. Bold Longshot – Joey Logano

Despite +2000+ odds, Logano’s experience is a big asset. With 13 starts at Indy resulting in seven Top‑10s and strong Penske support, he’s a sneaky longshot bet with high upside (especially given nostalgic power and consistent performance in past Brickyards).

3. Value Upside – Christopher Bell or Chris Buescher

Bell has stellar results on intermediate tracks and finished fourth here last year; Buescher and Keselowski also represent smaller‑market value potential, particularly from RFK Racing crews trending upward.

4. In‑Season Challenge subplot

For Gibbs and Ty Dillon, progression matters: winning today would capture the $1M bracket prize regardless of playoff implications. They might run more aggressively as a result.

Predicted Finish Order

Denny Hamlin

Kyle Larson

Christopher Bell

Ryan Blaney

Joey Logano

Expect Hamlin to lead a highly competitive top tier, with Larson and Bell battling closely and Logano sneaking into contention late on fuel/draft strategy.