Last Updated on July 13, 2025 9:04 am by Anthony Rome
After claiming his third consecutive road-course pole, will Shane Van Gisbergen pick up another NASCAR Cup Series race? NASCAR heads to Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota Save Mart 350.
Toyota Save Mart 350 Snapshot
What: Toyota Save Mart 350
When: 3:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, July 13, 2025
Where: Sonoma Raceway, Sonoma, CA
Watch: TNT Sports / MAX
Pole power puts SVG in control
Shane van Gisbergen claimed his third consecutive road‑course pole (96.040 mph)—again outpacing Chase Briscoe—for Sunday’s 3:30 p.m. ET green flag. He’s the overwhelming favorite at around +120 to +140 odds, thanks to back‑to‑back Cup wins at Chicago and Mexico City, plus an Xfinity Sonoma win last year. With Sonoma freshly repaved and transformed into a high‑speed sprint contest, SVG is primed to dominate yet again.
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, SVG is the current favorite at +110.
Challengers looming
Kyle Larson (+550 to +800): The two‑time Sonoma winner heads into the race with top-five potential and local track expertise.
AJ Allmendinger (+1000–1800): Qualified a strong P5, hungry for a win as he fights for playoff positioning.
Michael McDowell (+1100–1800): A consistent road‑course threat with a runner‑up finish last year; his smooth driving style fits Sonoma’s layout.
Christopher Bell (+1200–1800): The model’s top value pick—multiple road‑course wins and recent runner‑up in Mexico City make him a sneaky contender.
Toyota Save Mart 350 Value bets & deep sleepers
Ty Gibbs (+1400): Solid performances (P2 in Chicago) and a mid-pack start make him a mid-tier dark horse.
Chris Buescher (+1400): Fantastic track record here—runner-up in 2022 and consistent laps up front.
Ryan Preece (+3000): A top‑10 performer at recent road courses, plus matchup models favor him over Tyler Reddick.
Toyota Save Mart 350 Predictions
Win pick: Shane van Gisbergen
With pole position, incredible recent form, and a perfect harmony of speed+track familiarity, a third straight road course Cup win seems imminent.
Best value: Christopher Bell
At +1200 odds and with proven road‑course speed—including a win at COTA and runner‑up in Mexico City—Bell offers excellent upside.
Top 10 sleeper: Michael McDowell
With +1800 odds and a strong last‑year performance, he’s got the smooth style and consistency for a surprise podium.
Prop to watch: AJ Allmendinger top‑3 finish
Leading with P5 qualifying and playoff motivation, Dinger is primed for a top‑3—already noted as a strong prop at +340
Final Take
Sonoma is set for high drama: SVG is the heavy chalk to extend his hot streak, but veteran road‑coursers like Larson, Allmendinger, Bell, and McDowell could collide for silverware. Expect a fast-paced, clean fight at the front, with strategy and tire management playing key roles on the repaved surface. Watch for Audibles off pit strategy—one surprise caution could reshape the win order.