GarbageMan Best Bets Tuesday 5/13 (3 plays)

🐶 Underdog Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (+110) at Cleveland Guardians
Game Details:
• Time: 6:10 PM ET
• Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Starting Pitchers:
• Brewers: Quinn Priester (1–1, 5.08 ERA, 1.66 WHIP)
• Guardians: Logan Allen (1–2, 4.33 ERA, 1.67 WHIP)
Pitching Analysis:
• Quinn Priester has shown potential but struggles with control, issuing 19 walks over 28.1 innings. His 57.6% ground-ball rate is a positive, but his 0.8% K-BB% indicates challenges in overpowering hitters.
• Logan Allen has a similar profile, with 19 walks over 35.1 innings and a 43.1% ground-ball rate. His 3.7% K-BB% suggests slightly better command than Priester.
Team Trends:
• Brewers: Offensively, they struggled in the previous game, going 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and leaving 11 runners on base.
• Guardians: They capitalized on opportunities, with Gabriel Arias delivering a pivotal three-run double. José Ramírez added three stolen bases, showcasing aggressive baserunning.
Injury Updates:
• Ben Lively, the Guardians’ previous starter, exited early due to forearm inflammation, leading to increased bullpen usage.
Prediction:
Given the comparable pitching challenges and the Brewers’ potential to rebound offensively, backing Milwaukee as an underdog presents value.
________________________________________
🔥 Favorite Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-103) vs. Chicago White Sox
Game Details:
• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Starting Pitchers:
• Reds: Andrew Abbott (2–0, 2.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
• White Sox: Jonathan Cannon (2–4, 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
Pitching Analysis:
• Andrew Abbott has been impressive, with a high strikeout rate (11.6 K/9) and effective control. His recent performance includes five shutout innings against the Braves.
• Jonathan Cannon has a lower strikeout rate (6.8 K/9) and has allowed 47 hits over 44 innings, indicating susceptibility to contact.
Team Trends:
• Reds: Their offense ranks 13th in MLB, with Elly De La Cruz leading in RBIs. The team is also aggressive on the bases, ranking third in stolen bases.
• White Sox: Struggling offensively, they rank 30th in batting average and have the third-fewest home runs in MLB.
Injury Updates:
• White Sox: Key players like Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Benintendi are on the injured list, further weakening their lineup.
Prediction:
Considering the pitching mismatch and offensive disparities, the Reds are well-positioned to cover the -1.5 run line.
________________________________________
⚾ Total Pick: Over 9.5 Runs – Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Game Details:
• Time: 10:10 PM ET
• Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Starting Pitchers:
• Athletics: Jeffrey Springs (4–3, 4.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)
• Dodgers: Landon Knack (2–0, 4.61 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)
Pitching Analysis:
• Jeffrey Springs has been inconsistent, allowing 19 walks over 39.1 innings. His recent outings include a five-inning, two-run performance against the Mariners.
• Landon Knack has limited MLB experience but showed promise with five scoreless innings in his last start. However, his overall ERA suggests vulnerability.
Team Trends:
• Athletics: Their offense ranks fifth in batting average and sixth in slugging percentage, indicating the potential to contribute to a high-scoring game.
• Dodgers: Averaging 5.56 runs per game, they have a potent lineup, with Shohei Ohtani hitting .308 with 12 home runs.
Prediction:
Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the pitchers’ profiles, the game is likely to exceed 9.5 total runs.
________________________________________
Summary:
• Underdog: Brewers ML (+110)
• Favorite: Reds -1.5 (-103)
• Total: Athletics vs. Dodgers Over 9.5 Runs