Broncos vs. Patriots Free Pick
FOXBORO, MA (The Spread) – Will the Patriots be able to cover the double-digit spread tonight when they host the Broncos at 8:00PM ET in the Divisional round of the 2012 NFL Playoffs?
NFL Odds: Oddsmakers have installed the Patriots as 13.5-point favorites over the Broncos, while the over/under total for this game is sitting at 50.5 points. Denver enters play with a 9-8 overall record and was 5-3 on the road this season, while New England is 13-3 overall and 7-1 at home.
Line Movement: The Patriots opened as a 14-point favorite but the line is down a half point to 13.5. (Although some offshore books are still offering the Broncos at +14.) The over/under total opened at 51.5 but the number is now down to 50.5 or 50 depending on what book you view.
Public Betting: Of the 40,000-plus wagers on today’s game, 51% of NFL public bettors currently favor the Patriots. This information is subject to change leading up to kickoff, however, so make sure you click on the link provided for the most up-to-date NFL public betting numbers.
NFL Playoff Free Pick: Take the under. According to latest NFL trends, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in New England and 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall. The under is also 11-4-1 in the Patriots’ last 16 home playoff games and 4-1 in the Broncos’ last five games following an ATS win. Denver scored 29 points against a solid Pittsburgh defense last weekend, a defense that is much better than New England’s. But look for Bill Belichick to learn from the Steelers’ mistakes in coverage and take away Tim Tebow’s ability to throw the ball deep. When you consider how inconsistent the Broncos’ offense has been this season, 50.5 points is way too high. (Even when you consider that the Patriots scored 41 points against the Broncos in the first meeting between these two teams earlier this season.)
2012 NFL PLAYOFFS FREE PICK: BRONCOS/PATRIOTS UNDER 50.5
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