The Golden State Valkyries visit the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday afternoon as 3.5-point road underdogs, and the betting market is sending a quiet signal worth reading. The public is piling on Las Vegas, yet the number has actually crept toward Golden State since it opened.
That tension between where the money is going and where the line is moving frames the whole card. Our featured pick leans into it, with a total and a bonus angle to follow.
Last Updated: Sunday, June 21, 2026
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES VS. LAS VEGAS ACES TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| When | Sunday, June 21 – 4:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS (stream on Paramount+) |
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Game Preview
Las Vegas enters at 11-4 and has won seven of its last eight games. The Aces shook off a lopsided loss to Dallas with an 86-76 win over Phoenix earlier in the week. That bounce-back kept them within a game of the top of the standings. A'ja Wilson is the engine, leading the league in scoring at 26.1 points per game while adding 9.1 rebounds and a league-best 2.2 blocks. The four-time MVP is the clear favorite to win the award again.
Golden State arrives at 10-6 after a four-game winning streak ended with an 81-75 loss to the league-leading Lynx on Friday. Even in defeat, the Valkyries showed their identity. They defend at a high level, control tempo, and grind games into the half-court. Cecilia Zandalasini poured in a career-high 23 against Minnesota, while Veronica Burton and Gabby Williams give the backcourt steady scoring and playmaking. You can track the rest of Golden State's form in our recent Valkyries betting preview.
The season series has gone one way so far. Las Vegas won the first two meetings, 91-81 on May 31 and 84-79 in Las Vegas on June 6. Wilson posted 28 points and 14 rebounds in that June matchup, and Jackie Young added 27. Still, the Valkyries hung within five in the rematch, which matters when they are getting 3.5 points on Sunday. The roster also features a familiar face: Kiah Stokes, Golden State's starting center, won three titles in Las Vegas before signing this past offseason.
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES VS. LAS VEGAS ACES ODDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
| Golden State Valkyries | +3.5 (-105) | +145 | U 168 (-110) |
| Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 (-115) | -170 | O 168 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, June 21, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds - Futures - Props
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES VS. LAS VEGAS ACES WHO IS THE PUBLIC BETTING? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries | 31% | 69% | Las Vegas Aces |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
ATS Pick — Golden State Valkyries +3.5
The Pick: Golden State Valkyries +3.5 (-105)
The market is doing something interesting here. Roughly 69% of spread bets sit on Las Vegas, and 93% of moneyline tickets back the Aces. Despite that lopsided public support, the line has moved the other way. Las Vegas opened at -4 and now sits at -3.5. When heavy public money lands on one side and the number shifts toward the other, it often points to sharper action on the underdog. That reverse move favors Golden State here.
The on-court case backs the number, too. Golden State's defense travels well, and the Valkyries already proved they can stay close to this Aces team. They lost by just five in Las Vegas on June 6, with Williams matching Wilson stride for stride at 27 points. A disciplined, low-possession game keeps the margin tight, which is exactly the script a road dog wants. Getting 3.5 means a late bucket or two can flip the cover even in a loss.
The other side is real, though. Wilson is the best player on the floor by a wide margin, and the Aces are 7-1 across their last eight. Home court and an MVP-level closer can turn a four-point game into a double-digit final in a hurry. If Las Vegas hits its shots early and forces Golden State to chase, the Valkyries' grind-it-out style works against them. That risk is why this is a lean on the points rather than a play on the Aces to fail outright.
Total Pick — Under 168
The Pick: Under 168 (-110)
The total has held steady at 168 since it opened, and the pace profile leans slightly under. Golden State ranks among the league's stingiest defenses and prefers a slower, half-court rhythm. The June 6 meeting between these two landed at 163 combined points, comfortably below this number. Stokes anchoring the paint and a Valkyries plan built on limiting easy looks both support fewer possessions and a lower score.
In fairness, the over has a clear path. The first meeting on May 31 went for 172, and Wilson alone can carry a scoreboard when she is rolling. If the Aces push tempo at home and Golden State's shooters get hot from deep, 168 falls quickly. With the two head-to-head results split right around the number, this is a modest lean rather than a strong stance. The defensive edge tips it under.
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The bonus angle stays on Golden State. With 93% of moneyline tickets on the Aces, the underdog price offers value for bettors who think this is closer to a coin flip than the public believes.
The Pick: Golden State Valkyries +145 (moneyline)
A +145 outright price implies roughly a 41% win probability. For a team that already lost by only five in Las Vegas and defends at an elite level, that is a defensible small-stake play. The counterpoint is straightforward: Las Vegas has won both meetings this year and owns the best player in the game. Wilson's ceiling is the reason to keep the stake light. Still, the combination of a tight recent matchup and a heavily one-sided market makes the dog worth a look.
To recap, the card centers on three plays: Golden State Valkyries +3.5 as the featured side, Under 168 as a modest total lean, and Golden State Valkyries +145 on the moneyline as a value sprinkle. You can find more selections across our latest WNBA picks coverage.
WNBA Valkyries Prediction FAQ
What time does the Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces game start?
The game tips off on Sunday, June 21, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas.
What channel is the Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces game on?
The game airs nationally on CBS, with a live stream available on Paramount+.
Who is favored in the Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces game?
The Las Vegas Aces are favored by 3.5 points at home, with a moneyline of -170. The Golden State Valkyries are +3.5 underdogs at +145 on the moneyline.
Who won the last meeting between Golden State and Las Vegas?
The Aces won the most recent meeting 84-79 in Las Vegas on June 6, 2026. A'ja Wilson led the way with 28 points and 14 rebounds, and Jackie Young added 27 points.