Friday night settles it. The Dallas Wings visit the Golden State Valkyries for a winner-take-all Game 3 at Chase Center, with their first-round series tied 1-1. Golden State is an 8-point home favorite, and the total sits at 158.5. The Valkyries rolled by 24 in Game 1. Dallas answered with an overtime thriller behind a historic night from Arike Ogunbowale. Below, we break down the matchup, line movement and betting splits before landing on a side and a total.
Last Updated: Friday, October 2, 2026
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Chase Center, San Francisco CA |
| When | Friday, October 2 – 9:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Game Preview
Golden State finished 32-12 and earned the No. 2 seed on the strength of its defense. The Valkyries posted a league-best 100.6 defensive rating and allowed the fewest points in the WNBA. Dallas went 27-17 and enters as the No. 7 seed. The Wings averaged 89.4 points per game. Paige Bueckers led them at 20.9 points and 5.9 assists, while Most Improved Player Jessica Shepard added 14.5 points and 11.1 rebounds.
The head-to-head history favors the home team. Golden State swept the regular-season series 3-0. It won 91-80 and 78-70 in San Francisco and 94-76 in Dallas. Game 1 followed that script. The Valkyries outscored Dallas 37-11 in the second quarter and won 104-80 while hitting 18 of 36 from three. Cecilia Zandalasini scored 22 points, and Tiffany Hayes added 21 off the bench. Bueckers was brilliant in defeat with 21 points on 9-of-10 shooting.
Game 2 flipped the series. Ogunbowale scored a WNBA playoff-record 45 points in a 108-100 overtime win. Her corner three with 4.1 seconds left tied it at 93. She then scored 11 in overtime as Dallas won the extra period 15-7. Alysha Clark tied her playoff career high with 21 points. Gabby Williams scored a career-high 36 for Golden State in the loss. Bueckers, however, managed just 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting.
Dallas remains without Azzi Fudd, who is out for the season with a knee injury, and forward Alanna Smith (lower left leg). Golden State’s lone absence is center Iliana Rupert, who is out for the season. The winner faces the Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals starting Sunday. A Valkyries win would put Game 1 of that series back at Chase Center.
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wings | +8 (-110) | +275 | U 158.5 (-110) |
| Valkyries | -8 (-110) | -350 | O 158.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 2, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Wings | 34% | 66% | Valkyries |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Wings vs. Valkyries Prediction — Was Game 2 a Turning Point or a Mirage?
The market has moved toward the favorite. Golden State opened at -7.5 and now sits at -8. Its moneyline has also climbed from -300 to -350, which implies roughly a 78% chance of winning. Meanwhile, 66% of spread tickets back the Valkyries. That is a clear majority but not a lopsided one. The moneyline split is far heavier, with 92% of bets on Golden State to win outright.
The case for the home side starts with how Dallas won Game 2. Ogunbowale’s 45 points topped her previous career high of 41. Clark matched her best playoff scoring night. Even with both of those outliers, Dallas needed overtime to win by eight on its own floor. Repeating that formula on the road is a tall order. Golden State has also beaten Dallas at Chase Center by 11, 8 and 24 points this season. Against today’s number, that is two covers and a push.
Still, the case for Dallas is real. The Wings scored 108 points in Game 2 on a night Bueckers shot 3-of-13. She was nearly perfect in Game 1, so a bounce-back is reasonable to expect. In addition, Golden State ranked 13th of 15 teams in scoring during the regular season. That makes eight points a real cushion to lay. Still, the Valkyries have shown they can bury Dallas with one big quarter at home. That home-floor edge is hard to ignore.
The Pick: Valkyries -8 (-110)
Wings vs. Valkyries Prediction — Will Ballhalla Get Another Shootout?
The total opened at 157.5 and has ticked up to 158.5. The series has blown past both numbers. Game 1 finished with 184 points. Game 2 was tied 93-93 at the end of regulation, an 186-point pace before overtime began. Two of the three regular-season meetings also landed at 170 or higher. Golden State has scored 104 and 100 in the playoff games, well above its 82.2-point average.
The case for the under deserves respect. Golden State allowed the fewest points in the league, and Game 1’s 18 made threes tied a franchise record. The Valkyries shot 34.4% from deep during the regular season, so some regression is likely. The one regular-season game that stayed low, a 78-70 Golden State win, was also played in San Francisco. Even so, Dallas averaged 89.4 points per game and has now found answers against this defense. Two capable offenses in a must-win setting give the scoring trend real staying power.
The Pick: Over 158.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
We looked for a bonus angle and passed. The Valkyries moneyline at -350 asks bettors to risk a lot for a modest return. The Wings at +275 need another night like Game 2. They would also have to do it in a building where they are 0-3 this season. Neither price offers enough value to add a third play.
This series has been decided by runs. Golden State’s 37-11 second quarter broke Game 1 open, and Dallas closed Game 2 with a 15-7 overtime. Whichever team owns the middle quarters on Friday likely advances to face Las Vegas. Here are our picks for Game 3:
- Valkyries -8 (-110)
- Over 158.5 (-110)
For more on this series, revisit our Valkyries vs Wings Prediction: Game 2 Sept. 30, 2026 and Wings vs Valkyries Prediction September 27: Low-Scoring Game 1? breakdowns.
WNBA Wings vs. Valkyries Prediction FAQ
What time does the Wings vs. Valkyries game start?
Game 3 tips off at 9:00 PM ET (6:00 PM PT) on Friday, October 2, 2026, at Chase Center in San Francisco.
What channel is the Wings vs. Valkyries game on?
The game airs nationally on ESPN2.
Who is favored in the Wings vs. Valkyries game?
Golden State is the favorite at -8 on the spread and -350 on the moneyline. Dallas is +8 on the spread and +275 to win outright.
Who won the last meeting between the Wings and Valkyries?
Dallas won Game 2 on September 30, beating Golden State 108-100 in overtime. Arike Ogunbowale scored a WNBA playoff-record 45 points.
Is Azzi Fudd playing tonight?
No. Fudd is out for the season after knee surgery, and Dallas has also ruled out forward Alanna Smith with a lower left leg injury.