The Dallas Wings and Phoenix Mercury meet for the second time in three days on Monday night, and the stakes could not be more lopsided. Dallas is chasing playoff seeding on a six-game win streak. Phoenix is playing out a lost season in front of its home crowd. The market has the Wings as 6-point road favorites with a total of 172.5, but there is a wrinkle that could shape both numbers. Below, we break down the matchup, line movement and public split before landing on our best bets.
Last Updated: Monday, September 21, 2026
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| When | Monday, September 21 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
Dallas enters at 26-16, a franchise record for wins in a single season. The Wings beat Phoenix 87-82 on Saturday in their final home game of the year, and that result moved them into the sixth seed. Paige Bueckers scored 26 points in the win. She now has 1,514 career points, the most by any player through her first two WNBA seasons. Arike Ogunbowale added 22 points and six assists.
The storyline bettors need to know came before that game. Head coach Jose Fernandez announced that Bueckers, Ogunbowale and Jessica Shepard will play under minutes restrictions for the rest of the regular season. The goal is to keep all three fresh for the playoffs. Those limits cap how much of this game Dallas’s best players can control.
Phoenix sits at 15-27 and was eliminated from playoff contention in August. Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury at 21.3 points per game. Alyssa Thomas runs the offense at 8.4 assists per game and posted a triple-double in Saturday’s loss. Lexi Held led Phoenix with 21 points.
Dallas has owned this matchup in 2026. The Wings won 85-70 in June and took Saturday’s rematch, leaving them 2-0 in the season series. Monday’s game opens a two-game road trip that closes the Wings’ regular season, with a finale against the Seattle Storm to follow.
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wings | -6 (-105) | -230 | U 172.5 (-115) |
| Mercury | +6 (-115) | +190 | O 172.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, September 21, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Wings | 65% | 35% | Mercury |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Wings vs. Mercury Prediction — Is the Road Favorite Priced Too Rich?
The case for Dallas is simple. The Wings are the better team, they are hot, and they have real motivation. A sixth seed is still in play, and Dallas averages 89.1 points per game against a Phoenix team that scores 84.4. The Mercury also ranked 12th in defensive rating as of late August.
Still, the number tells a more cautious story. Dallas beat this same team by only five points at home two days ago. Now the Wings go on the road with their three best players on managed minutes. In addition, the line opened at Dallas -6.5 and has ticked down to -6, even with 65% of spread bets on the Wings. That is a modest move toward Phoenix against the public, which suggests some respected money sees value on the home side.
The risk in backing Phoenix is obvious. The Mercury have nothing left to play for in the standings, and a bad team can fold quickly in the fourth quarter. However, Thomas and Copper give Phoenix enough shot creation to stay within range. A late Dallas lead with rested starters on the bench is the likeliest path to a backdoor cover.
The Pick: Mercury +6 (-115)
Wings vs. Mercury Prediction — Will Managed Minutes Slow the Scoreboard?
On paper, the season averages point toward points. The two teams combine for 173.5 points per game, just above this total. Meanwhile, the head-to-head results lean the other way. The June meeting finished with 155 combined points, and Saturday’s game landed at 169. Both stayed under 172.5.
The minutes limits matter here, too. Fewer minutes for Bueckers, Ogunbowale and Shepard mean more time for Dallas’s bench, which should drag down offensive efficiency. The total has held at 172.5 since opening, but the juice has shifted toward the under, from -110 to -115. The case against is that Dallas topped 87 points on Saturday even with those limits in place. A hot shooting night from either side could push this over quickly.
The Pick: Under 172.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
If you like Phoenix to keep it close, the moneyline offers a bigger payout for a smaller stake. At +190, the Mercury carry an implied win probability of about 34.5%. That is a fair price to consider in a spot where Dallas has more to lose from pushing its stars than from dropping one road game. Still, the Wings have won six straight and swept the first two meetings, so treat this as a small, speculative position.
Bonus Pick: Mercury Moneyline (+190)
Here is a recap of our picks for Monday night:
- Mercury +6 (-115)
- Under 172.5 (-115)
- Mercury Moneyline (+190)
WNBA Wings vs. Mercury FAQ: Monday September 21, 2026
What time does the Wings vs. Mercury game start?
The Dallas Wings and Phoenix Mercury tip off at 10:00 PM ET on Monday, September 21, 2026. That is 9:00 PM Central Time for fans in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. It is the second meeting between the two teams in three days.
What channel is the Wings vs. Mercury game on?
The Wings vs. Mercury game airs nationally on USA Network on Monday night, with tip-off set for 10:00 PM ET. Viewers in the Dallas-Fort Worth area can also watch the local broadcast on KFAA 29.
Where are the Wings and Mercury playing today?
The Wings and Mercury play at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, the home arena of the Mercury. Tip-off is 10:00 PM ET. Dallas then closes its regular season at Seattle.
Who won the last meeting between the Wings and Mercury?
The Dallas Wings won the last meeting, beating the Phoenix Mercury 87-82 on Saturday, September 19, at College Park Center in Arlington. Paige Bueckers led Dallas with 26 points, and Arike Ogunbowale added 22. Lexi Held scored a team-high 21 points for Phoenix, and Alyssa Thomas added a triple-double.
What is the season series record between the Wings and Mercury?
Dallas leads the 2026 season series 2-0 over Phoenix heading into Monday’s game. The Wings won 85-70 in their June meeting and then held on for an 87-82 victory on September 19. Monday night is the third and final regular-season matchup between the two teams.