The Sun are massive home underdogs on Wednesday night to the Sun. With Connecticut catching 12.5 points and the total sitting at 156.5, what’s the best bet in tonight’s Mercury vs. Sun matchup?
Mercury vs. Sun WNBA Event Info
Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun
7:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
TV: N/A
Mercury vs. Sun Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mercury are 12.5-point road favorites to beat the Sun. The total, meanwhile, sits at 156.5 points.
Matchup Overview
Phoenix Mercury (8‑4, 2‑2 away)
Coming off a solid road trip and riding a 2‑game win streak following a 76–70 Commissioner’s Cup win over Las Vegas.
Offensively balanced: Sabally leading with 20.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG; Mercury scoring ~79.6 PPG while defensively allowing ~77.6 PPG.
Connecticut Sun (2‑9, 1‑4 home)
Entering a slump with three straight losses, most recently an 88–71 blowout to Indiana on June 17.
Struggling on offense (71.3 PPG) and giving up 88.2 PPG on average.
Key Storylines & Player Notes
Mercury’s standout trio: Satou Sabally dominates the stat sheet, backed by Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas, making Phoenix a dynamic and versatile threat.
Bench and third scoring option: Sami Whitcomb’s bench spark (18 points vs. LV) gives Phoenix depth .
Sun’s offensive core: Marina Mabrey is leading Connecticut in scoring and assists (17.6 PPG, 3.8 APG), but the team’s poor 39.6% FG and lack of defense are hard to overcome.
Injury watch: Mercury guard Sami Whitcomb is a game-time decision; Sun guard Leila Lacan remains out through July 6—limiting depth.
How the Game Might Unfold
Tempo & Pace: Phoenix’s fast pushes and ball turnovers led to 22 fast-break points in their Commissioner’s Cup win
Defensive mismatch: Connecticut allows over 88 PPG—Phoenix can exploit this with pace and inside scoring.
Connecticut’s rebound effort: Sun’s Tina Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa must win the boards to keep up. However, Sabally’s league-leading 7.9 RPG suggests Phoenix has the edge.
Mercury vs. Sun Prediction
Mercury’s depth, efficiency, and defensive edge should secure a comfortable win against a struggling Sun squad. But I won’t be laying this many points. Based on trend lines and differing styles, I project that tonight’s game will fall under the betting total.
Mercury vs. Sun Prediction: UNDER 156.5