The Phoenix Mercury visit the Connecticut Sun on Friday, August 7, 2026, and they arrive at Mohegan Sun Arena as clear road favorites. The line opened with Phoenix laying 5.5 points, and the number has since climbed to -6.5. A retooled, star-heavy Mercury roster meets a Sun team stuck in a deep slide. The matchup looks lopsided on paper, but road favorites laying nearly a touchdown are never automatic in the WNBA. Below we break down the odds, the public split, and our two best bets for the night — one on the spread and one on the total.
Last Updated: Friday, August 7, 2026
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| When | Friday, August 7 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ION |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun Betting Preview
Phoenix enters at 12-20, well below .500 but loaded with proven scorers. The Mercury reshaped their roster around Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, DeWanna Bonner and Satou Sabally, and Kelsey Plum made her Phoenix debut on August 3. The talent is real. The results have been streaky. Phoenix went 3-2 across its last five, and the swings were dramatic. The Mercury dropped 106 on Chicago in a 106-101 win on August 3, then fell 96-82 at Atlanta two nights later. That inconsistency is the theme of their season.
Connecticut sits at 7-23, one of the league’s worst marks, and the Sun have lost five in a row. The franchise is reportedly headed to Houston after the season, and the on-court product has cratered down the stretch. Their last outing was an 83-63 loss to Dallas. Just as important, center Brittney Griner has been sidelined with a knee injury and has not played since July 19, thinning an interior that was already short on scoring.
The season series tilts toward Phoenix, but it has not been one-sided. The teams met twice in July with very different outcomes. Connecticut jumped Phoenix 96-83 on July 17. Two nights later, Phoenix flipped the script with a 72-63 defensive grind on July 19. Those two results frame the range of outcomes here — a track meet or a rock fight, depending on which version of each team shows up.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | -6.5 (-115) | -260 | U 174 (-110) |
| Sun | +6.5 (-105) | +215 | O 174 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, August 7, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mercury | 57% | 43% | Sun |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mercury vs. Sun Prediction — Can a Depleted Sun Keep It Close at Home?
The case for laying the points is straightforward. Phoenix has far more scoring, and Connecticut is limping. The Sun have lost five straight, they were beaten by 20 in their last game, and Griner’s absence removes one of their few reliable interior options. The line movement backs the favorite too. Phoenix opened at -5.5 and has been bet up to -6.5, a sign that money has leaned toward the road side. Phoenix also proved it can smother this offense, holding Connecticut to 63 points in their most recent meeting.
The other side is not empty, however. Connecticut sits at 14-16 against the spread this season, so the market has generally priced this team fairly rather than letting it drift. The Sun also handled Phoenix by 13 back on July 17, which proves the ceiling exists at home. Meanwhile, Phoenix is on the road on modest rest after an emotional loss, and the Mercury’s own inconsistency cuts both ways. Laying nearly seven with a sub-.500 team is a real risk, and a live home dog can hang around in a single game.
Still, the talent gap and the injury news point the same direction. When a struggling team loses its anchor in the paint and draws a deeper, more explosive opponent, the number tends to hold. For more of our reads on this Phoenix team, see our recent Mercury coverage.
The Pick: Phoenix Mercury -6.5 (-115)
Mercury vs. Sun Best Bet — Which Way Does the Total Break?
The total sits at 174, up slightly from a 173.5 open. The trends lean toward points. Phoenix has gone over in six of its last 10 games, and Connecticut has cashed the over in seven of its last 10. The Sun’s defense has been leaky all summer, surrendering 123 to Indiana in one recent blowout. Phoenix has the firepower to push the pace, and a favorite pulling away can still send the total soaring.
The counter is the July 19 meeting, when these same teams combined for just 135 points in a 72-63 rock fight. Connecticut’s offense has sputtered badly without Griner, and if the Sun bog down again, the under is very much in play. That said, the recent over trends on both sides are hard to ignore, and Connecticut’s defense gives up enough clean looks to keep the ball moving.
The Pick: Over 174 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The bonus angle here is knowing when to pass. Phoenix is priced at -260 on the moneyline, which is a steep number to lay on a 12-20 team playing away from home. The implied cost simply is not worth it when a straight win is far from guaranteed for a streaky road favorite. The spread is the cleaner route to the same opinion, so we are staying off the moneyline entirely.
To recap the card: we like Phoenix -6.5 on the spread and the Over 174 on the total, a two-bet approach built on the Mercury’s talent edge and both teams’ recent scoring trends. The risk on both is the same scenario — another 72-63 grind where Connecticut slows the game. Bet responsibly and shop the number first. For more picks, browse our latest WNBA predictions.
WNBA Mercury vs. Sun FAQ: Friday August 7, 2026
What time does the Mercury vs. Sun game start?
The Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut Sun tip off at 7:30 PM ET on Friday, August 7, 2026. The game is played at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, with the Sun serving as the home team in the matchup.
What channel is the Mercury vs. Sun game on?
The Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun game airs nationally on ION on Friday, August 7, 2026. ION carries a Friday-night WNBA package, and this contest is part of that slate at its scheduled 7:30 PM ET tip-off.
Where are the Mercury and Sun playing today?
The game is at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, the longtime home of the Connecticut Sun. Phoenix is the road team, traveling east to face the Sun in this regular-season matchup on Friday, August 7, 2026.
What are the Mercury and Sun records this season?
Phoenix enters at 12-20 and Connecticut at 7-23, one of the league’s poorest marks. The Mercury are 3-2 over their last five games, while the Sun carry a five-game losing streak into this contest and have struggled to find offense of late.