The 9-4 Mercury will take on the 10-1 Liberty at 7:00 p.m. ET. With New York laying 11.5 points and te total sitting at 163.5, what’s the best bet in tonight’s Mercury vs. Liberty matchup?
Mercury vs. Liberty WNBA Event Info
Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty
7:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, June 19, 2025
Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
TV: Prime Video
Mercury vs. Liberty Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Liberty are 11.5-point home favorites to beat the Mercury. The total, meanwhile, sits at 163.5 points.
Records & Momentum:
New York Liberty: 10–1 overall, undefeated (6–0) at home; leading the league in both offensive rating (110.8) and defensive rating (91.3)
Phoenix Mercury: 8–4, recently healthy with stars Copper, Thomas, Sabally all active; riding a 3‑game win streak and strong recent road results
Key Matchups & Factors
Frontcourt Strength vs. Transition Speed
Liberty’s Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones combine size and versatility, with Stewart efficient inside (67.5% 2‑pt) and Jones posting double-doubles at ~13.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG.
Mercury must use Copper and Thomas in transition to get around the Liberty’s length — both healthy and firing.
Bench & Secondary Scoring
Sami Whitcomb, despite injury status, remains a key shooter off the bench for Phoenix; Whose absence could impact perimeter spacing.
Liberty’s depth shines with Natasha Cloud running the point efficiently and Leonie Fiebich providing 3-and-D from the wing.
Statistical Edge
NYL averages 89.8 PPG, shooting 46.9%; Phoenix manages 79.6 PPG and 42.3% FG — Liberty lead in rebounding (35.6 vs. 32.5) and assists too.
Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction
Liberty cruise with a ~12-point margin, powered by Stewart, Jones, and Ionescu.
Mercury stay competitive but struggle to keep up with Liberty’s firepower and consistent half-court execution.
Expect New York to control pace and physicality, using size advantage to dominate inside/out side, while Phoenix tries to counter with fast breaks and perimeter shooting. But Liberty’s efficiency and home dominance tilt the odds strongly in their favor — ESPN predicts an 83.4% win chance for NYL.
The Liberty are likely to remain perfect at home, impressively balancing offense and defense. Meanwhile, the Mercury’s trio will get efforts, but depth and matchup disadvantages may cap their ceiling tonight.
All that said, I love the over.
Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction: OVER 163.5