The New York Liberty and Toronto Tempo meet Sunday afternoon in Montreal, and the market has quietly shifted since this one opened. New York is now a 6.5-point road favorite after opening at 7.5. That move suggests the number is respecting Toronto’s home crowd and New York’s difficult scheduling spot. The Liberty are playing on zero days’ rest. The Tempo are trying to end a four-game slide in front of the biggest audience this franchise has ever drawn. There is a side of this spread we like and a total that looks a half-step too high, but the reasoning matters more than the conclusion.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026
New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec |
| When | Sunday, July 12 – 3:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBA TV, FOX5 New York, TSN |
New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo Game Preview
New York arrives at 13-10, second in the Eastern Conference and a half-game behind Indiana in the WNBA standings. The record flatters the recent form. The Liberty have dropped six of their past eight, including a 90-85 loss at Minnesota on Saturday that opened a four-game road trip. Sabrina Ionescu scored 25 in that game and Jonquel Jones posted a 15-point, 12-rebound double-double. Still, New York again dug a double-digit hole before rallying.
The injury sheet is the load-bearing detail here. Satou Sabally remains in concussion protocol and Leonie Fiebich is out with a left foot issue, so New York is running a shortened rotation for the second straight day. Breanna Stewart still anchors the offense at roughly 20 points per game, and the Liberty defense has been the reliable half of their profile, allowing 84.1 points per game on the season.
Toronto sits 9-13 and fifth in the East in its inaugural season, and the Tempo have lost four straight. Friday’s 108-95 defeat to Dallas at the Bell Centre drew 20,966 fans, a WNBA regular-season attendance record. Marina Mabrey scored 34 and rookie Laura Juskaite added a career-best 25, but Toronto was outscored 24-10 in the fourth quarter. Sandy Brondello’s group scores plenty at 89.6 points per game. The other end has sunk them, with 92.1 allowed per night.
The Tempo are shorthanded too. Temi Fagbenle (concussion protocol), Brittney Sykes (left foot) and Kiki Rice (left ankle) are all out, and Nyara Sabally is questionable with a left knee problem after joining the list Friday. “Injury has been a real Achilles heel for us,” Brondello said. New York took the first meeting 97-82 on June 3 in Brooklyn. For our read on how Toronto handled Dallas in this same building, see our Wings vs Tempo Prediction for Friday, July 10.
New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -6.5 (-115) | -275 | U 177 (-105) |
| Tempo | +6.5 (-105) | +225 | O 177 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 12, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Liberty | 50% | 50% | Tempo |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Liberty vs. Tempo Prediction — Will Tempo Hang With a Tired Contender?
Start with the schedule. New York played Saturday afternoon in Minneapolis, then traveled to Montreal for a 3:00 PM ET tip. That is a cross-border turnaround with no day off, and the Liberty are making it without two rotation forwards. Shorthanded teams on zero rest tend to leak points late, and New York has already shown a habit of falling behind early and spending the second half climbing out.
Toronto’s underlying numbers are better than a 9-13 record suggests. The Tempo rank fourth in the league in offensive rating and second in three-point percentage, and Mabrey has been a genuine problem for defenses since her 53-point outburst against Los Angeles on June 25 tied the WNBA single-game scoring record. Add a second sellout-caliber Montreal crowd and there is real reason to think this stays close.
The case against Toronto is not subtle. They have lost four straight, they are missing three rotation players, and they surrendered that 24-10 fourth quarter to Dallas in this same building. New York already handled them by 15 in the first meeting, and the Liberty defense is the more trustworthy unit. If Toronto’s depth cracks late again, the number will not matter. Still, the market has moved a full point their way, and a home dog inside seven with a top-five offense is worth the fair price.
The Pick: Tempo +6.5 (-105)
Liberty vs. Tempo Prediction — Will Two Depleted Rotations Slow the Scoring?
The total opened at 176.5 and has ticked up to 177, so a small amount of money has come in on the over. The pace logic is understandable. Toronto plays fast, defends poorly and has cleared 100 points in a game this season. Combine their season averages and you get a game in the low 180s.
The counter is that neither team has the personnel for a full-throttle track meet right now. Toronto has scored 95, 75, 76 and 80 in its last four games, and three of those four finished under this number. New York allows 84.1 per game and plays this one on tired legs. With Fagbenle, Sykes and Rice out for Toronto, and Sabally and Fiebich out for New York, both benches are thinner than they were a month ago. The risk is obvious: if Mabrey gets hot from deep, this number is gone in a hurry. We will accept that risk at the better price.
The Pick: Under 177 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The most interesting number on the board is not the spread. Spread tickets are split 50/50, but 92% of moneyline tickets sit on New York at -275. That is a heavy tilt toward a favorite that lost Saturday and is missing two forwards. Toronto at +225 implies roughly a 31% chance of winning outright. Given the rest disparity and the crowd, that price carries value, even though the Tempo are the weaker team on paper and have lost four in a row.
Treat that one as a small-stake swing, not a core position. New York remains the better club, and if Stewart and Ionescu play 34 minutes apiece the Liberty should win. Our Liberty vs Lynx Prediction and Best Bet for Saturday July 11, 2026 flagged the same rotation concerns that showed up in Minneapolis, and they have not gone away.
The Pick: Tempo Moneyline +225 (small stake)
All picks for this game: Tempo +6.5 (-105), Under 177 (-105), and Tempo Moneyline +225 as a smaller bonus play.
WNBA Liberty vs Tempo Sunday July 12, 2026 FAQ
What time does the New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo game start?
Tip-off is 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, July 12, 2026 at the Bell Centre in Montreal. It is the second of two Tempo home games staged in Montreal this weekend.
What channel is the New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo game on?
The game is carried nationally on NBA TV, locally on FOX5 New York, and on TSN in Canada.
Who is favored in the New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo game?
New York is a 6.5-point road favorite at -275 on the moneyline. The line opened at Liberty -7.5, so it has moved a point toward Toronto.
Who won the last meeting between the Liberty and the Tempo?
New York won the first meeting of the season 97-82 on June 3 in New York. This is the second of three scheduled matchups between the clubs.
Are Satou Sabally and Brittney Sykes playing?
No. Satou Sabally is out for New York in concussion protocol, and Brittney Sykes is out for Toronto with a left foot injury, per the league’s WNBA injury report. Leonie Fiebich is also out for the Liberty, while Nyara Sabally is questionable for the Tempo.