The New York Liberty arrive in the Pacific Northwest as one of the hottest teams in the league, and the betting market has reacted accordingly. New York sits as a double-digit road favorite against a Seattle Storm club mired in a long losing slide.
The number is steep, however, and a home dog with a budding star can complicate any blowout script. Our prediction digs into whether the Liberty bury this line, or whether the points are simply too many to lay.
Last Updated: Thursday, June 25, 2026
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle WA |
| When | Thursday, June 25 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Game Preview
New York enters at 12-6 overall and a sparkling 8-1 in the Eastern Conference. The Liberty have gone 8-2 across their last 10 games, and they just clinched a spot in the Commissioner’s Cup title game. Their most recent outing was an 87-76 road win at Las Vegas. For more on that stretch, see our Liberty vs. Aces best bets from earlier this week.
Seattle, in contrast, has slid to 3-15 and 0-10 in the Western Conference. The Storm carry an 11-game losing streak into this one, and they are just 2-7 at home. Still, they are not a hopeless watch. Seattle pushed Dallas to overtime in a 112-110 loss its last time out, a result we previewed in our Wings vs. Storm best bets. The rebuild has a centerpiece, too.
Breanna Stewart leads the Liberty at 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, and Sabrina Ionescu is back after missing early-season time with ankle and back issues. Jonquel Jones adds frontcourt scoring and floor spacing. For Seattle, rookie Dominique Malonga is the story. She poured in 37 points against the Wings and is averaging 12.5 points over the last 10. Natisha Hiedeman chips in 15.6 per night. On the injury front, the Storm will be without Ezi Magbegor (foot), while Jordan Horston, Jade Melbourne and Taina Mair are day-to-day. The Liberty list only Betnijah Laney-Hamilton as day-to-day with a knee issue, per the league’s 2026 standings and injury tracking.
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -11.5 (-110) | -650 | U 170 (-110) |
| Storm | +11.5 (-110) | +450 | O 170 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, June 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
WNBA Betting Angle for Liberty vs. Storm
The line tells its own story. New York opened at -12.5, and the spread has since ticked down to -11.5. The total, meanwhile, has climbed from an open of 167.5 up to 170. The market has shaved a point off the Liberty number while nudging the scoring expectation higher, which usually signals two-way interest.
The matchup numbers explain the respect for New York. The Liberty have averaged 89.7 points over their last 10 while allowing just 81.4. They shoot 46.6% from the field and drain 10.3 threes per game. Seattle, by comparison, has scored 78.2 per night during its skid and surrendered 89.6. The Storm also hit only 41.3% from the floor. On paper, this is a clear talent gap. The question is whether 11.5 already prices it in.
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Liberty | 40% | 60% | Storm |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Liberty vs Storm Prediction — Can the Storm Hang Within Two Digits at Home?
This is a spot where the favorite is excellent and the number is large. New York is the better team in every category that matters. The Liberty also travel well, sitting at 6-2 away from home. If they treat this as a business trip, they can win comfortably. Seattle has lost 11 straight, and a 20-point result would surprise no one.
The other side has support, though. The public betting split shows 60% of spread tickets on the home Storm, and the modest line move toward Seattle backs that lean. Malonga gives Seattle a reason to compete, and her 37-point eruption shows the ceiling. New York is also just 1-3 in games decided by three points or fewer. Large WNBA road favorites can ease off once a game is decided, which keeps a backdoor cover alive.
The case against the Storm is real, since blowouts have followed them all month. The case for them rests on Malonga, the points in hand, and New York’s history of coasting. At this number, the points are the more comfortable position.
The Pick: Seattle Storm +11.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Storm Total Prediction — Will the Scoreboard Stay Quiet After Tip?
The total opened at 167.5 and now sits at 170, so some scoring money has come in. The over case is straightforward. Seattle just played a 112-110 overtime game, New York scores in bunches, and the Storm defense has bled nearly 90 points a night during the streak. If Malonga gets rolling again, this can sail.
The under case leans on tempo and the Liberty defense. New York has held opponents to just 81.4 points over its last 10, and elite defenses do not vanish on the road. Seattle’s 41.3% shooting is a problem against that length. There is also the blowout dynamic. If New York builds a big lead, the bench arrives and the pace slows in the second half. A regulation game without overtime trims the math, and that pulls the number back below 170. The over needs a shootout or another Malonga special to land.
The Pick: Under 170 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The moneyline is worth a quick look, even if it is hard to act on. New York sits at -650, which means laying more than six times your stake to back a heavy favorite. That price offers little value, even for a team playing this well. Seattle at +450 is a flyer given the 11-game skid and Magbegor’s absence. The spread and total are the cleaner vehicles here.
Putting it together, this looks like a New York win that may not arrive by 12 points, paired with a game script that favors a controlled pace. To recap our picks: Seattle Storm +11.5 (-110) and Under 170 (-110). Both lean on the same idea, that the Liberty are better but the market may have asked them to prove a touch too much.
WNBA Liberty vs. Storm Prediction FAQ
What time does the Liberty vs. Storm game start?
The New York Liberty and Seattle Storm tip off at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2026, at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle.
What channel is the Liberty vs. Storm game on?
The game is the Prime Video WNBA Game of the Week and streams on Amazon Prime Video.
Who is favored in the Liberty vs. Storm game?
The New York Liberty are favored at -11.5 on the spread and -650 on the moneyline, while the Seattle Storm are +11.5 underdogs at +450.
What is the over/under for the Liberty vs. Storm game?
The total is set at 170 points, with both the over and the under priced at -110.
Is Sabrina Ionescu playing tonight?
Sabrina Ionescu has returned for New York after missing early-season time with ankle and back injuries and is expected to play. The Storm will be without Ezi Magbegor, who is out with a foot injury.