Our Aces vs Valkyries prediction for Game 2 of the WNBA semifinals starts with a series that already looks different from the regular season. Golden State took Game 1 by 11 points and leads the best-of-five set 1-0. The Valkyries sit as 1.5-point home favorites with the total at 156.5. Las Vegas, meanwhile, has injury questions in its backcourt. Below, we break down the injury news, the pace battle and the market before landing on two plays.
Last Updated: October 7, 2026
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries — Game Info
| Where | Chase Center, San Francisco California |
| When | October 7 – 9:30 PM ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Betting Preview
Availability shapes this game more than anything else. Jewell Loyd left Game 1 in the third quarter with a left leg injury and did not return. The Aces listed her as doubtful for Game 2, while Stephanie Talbot (left leg) is questionable. Dana Evans (right knee) also carries a designation, and NaLyssa Smith is out for the season. Treat any Vegas rotation read as provisional until the final report and starting lineups land. Golden State has no new injuries; its only absence is Iliana Rupert, who is out for the season for reasons unrelated to injury.
The Valkyries finished 32-12 as the No. 2 seed. They then beat Dallas 2-1 for the first playoff series win in franchise history. Las Vegas went 31-13 as the No. 3 seed and beat Indiana 2-1 in the first round. The defending champions were also 16-6 on the road. Still, the Aces won every regular-season meeting, and they swept the three-game season series behind A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young.
Game 1 flipped that script. Golden State won 71-60 and held Vegas to its lowest point total of the season. The Valkyries owned the glass 52-25, including 17 offensive rebounds. Former Aces center Kiah Stokes grabbed 14 rebounds and blocked four shots. Gabby Williams added 25 points, 11 rebounds and five assists. Wilson scored 24 points, but she needed 21 shots and pulled down just four rebounds. Afterward, coach Becky Hammon was blunt about how poorly her team played.
That box score also explains why the side is hard to call. Las Vegas has covered in five of the last six meetings between these teams. Golden State answered with an 11-point home win in Game 1. Wilson averaged 26.2 points and 9.4 rebounds during the season, so her four-rebound night was far below her norm. A bounce-back from her is a fair expectation. The question is whether the Vegas supporting cast can hold up around her with its depth stretched.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aces | +1.5 (-110) | +105 | O 156.5 (-110) |
| Valkyries | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | U 156.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 7, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Aces | 24% | 76% | Valkyries |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The market read on the side is mixed. Golden State opened at -1.5 on Sunday and still sits there, even with 76% of spread bets on the Valkyries. A number that won’t move under heavy one-way action can hint at quiet support for the other side. However, the moneyline drifted from -120 to -125 toward Golden State. Those two signals cancel out, so the side carries no clean edge. The total is a different story. It opened at 157.5 and has slipped to 156.5.
Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction — Can the League’s Top Defense Slow Vegas Again?
This series is a clash of tempos. Golden State finished first in the league in defensive rating and allowed 75.1 points per game. It also played at a pace of 74.5 possessions, per Basketball Reference’s 2026 team ratings. Las Vegas ran at 79.6 and scored 91.5 points per game, the league’s No. 2 offense. In Game 1, the slower team set the terms. The two clubs combined for 131 points, more than 25 below tonight’s number.
Several factors suggest Game 2 looks similar. The Valkyries’ 52-25 rebounding edge in Game 1 left Vegas with few second chances. That size advantage up front does not depend on shooting luck. Meanwhile, the Vegas backcourt is thinner than it was on Sunday. With Loyd doubtful and Talbot questionable, Hammon has fewer perimeter options to push the pace and space the floor. The market agrees with the direction, too. The total has dropped a point since it opened, and the price at -110 asks for 52.4% to break even.
The case against is real. Vegas will not likely shoot that poorly again, and Wilson hit just 8-of-21 from the field. All three regular-season meetings also finished above 160 combined points. However, those games came in May and June at the Aces’ preferred pace. The playoff version of this matchup has looked nothing like them so far. If Loyd and Talbot both play, this read weakens.
The Pick: Under 156.5 (-110)
Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction — Has Golden State Found Its Playoff Closer?
Gabby Williams averaged 14.4 points in the regular season. The playoffs have been a different level. She scored 20, 36 and 19 against Dallas, then dropped 25 on the Aces in Game 1. That is three games of 20 or more in four tries. She also scored 20 and 27 in two regular-season meetings with Vegas. The volume is the key. She averaged 18.7 field goal attempts in the first round, so the offense now runs through her. A thin Vegas perimeter rotation leaves fewer fresh defenders to throw at her across 40 minutes.
The risk is the same slow pace that supports our total play. Fewer possessions cap her scoring chances, and Hammon will scheme to take her away after Game 1. Her season average also sits well below this mark. Even so, the -105 price asks for only 51.2% to break even, and her current role clears that bar. We rate this a lean rather than a strong play.
The Pick: Gabby Williams To Score 20+ Points (-105)
Our Final Word on Aces vs. Valkyries
Vegas has four-time MVP A’ja Wilson and every reason to push back in a near must-win spot. Our Game 1 Aces vs. Valkyries preview covered the opener of this series. The Aces also had to close out Indiana in a decisive Game 3 to get here. Still, Golden State’s rebounding and defense travel game to game, and the injury report tilts the depth battle its way. The spread itself is too close to call, so we stay with the angles the matchup supports.
Under 156.5 at -110 is our top play because Golden State’s league-best defense and slow pace already dragged Game 1 to 131 points. Gabby Williams To Score 20+ Points at -105 rounds out the card, since she has reached 20 in three of her four playoff games.
WNBA Aces vs. Valkyries FAQ: October 7, 2026
What time does the Aces vs. Valkyries game start?
Game 2 between the Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries tips off at 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2026. That is 6:30 PM local time in San Francisco. The game is the second contest of their best-of-five WNBA semifinal series, which Golden State leads 1-0.
What channel is the Aces vs. Valkyries game on?
The Aces vs. Valkyries game airs on NBCSN on Wednesday night. Coverage of Game 2 of the semifinal series begins with the 9:30 PM ET tip from Chase Center. Game 3 on Friday in Las Vegas is also scheduled for NBCSN and Peacock.
How can I stream the Aces vs. Valkyries game?
You can stream Aces vs. Valkyries on Peacock, which carries Game 2 alongside the NBCSN broadcast. The stream starts with the 9:30 PM ET tip on October 7. Peacock is scheduled to carry every game of this best-of-five semifinal series.
Who won the last meeting between the Aces and Valkyries?
The Golden State Valkyries won the last meeting, beating the Las Vegas Aces 71-60 in Game 1 of the semifinals on October 4 at Chase Center. Gabby Williams led Golden State with 25 points and 11 rebounds. Las Vegas had swept the three regular-season meetings.
What are the Aces’ and Valkyries’ records this season?
The Golden State Valkyries finished the regular season 32-12 and earned the No. 2 seed. The Las Vegas Aces went 31-13 as the No. 3 seed. Both teams won their best-of-three first-round series 2-1 before meeting in the semifinals, where Golden State holds a 1-0 lead.