Aces vs. Lynx WNBA Prediction: Is betting total set too high?

Mercury vs. Lynx Mercury vs. Lynx

Following Napheesa Collier’s 32-point game against the L.A. Sparks, Minnesota will host a banged-up Las Vegas team on Tuesday night. With Minnesota laying 13.5 points as a home favorite and the total sittin gat 161.5, what’s the best bet in tonight’s Aces vs. Lynx matchup?

Aces vs. Lynx WNBA Event Info

Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx

8:00 p.m. ET, Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

TV: N/A

Aces vs. Lynx Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Lynx are 13.5-point home favorites to beat the Aces. The total, meanwhile, sits at 161.5 points.

Team Form & Context

Minnesota Lynx (10–1)

Dominating form—just beat LA Sparks 101–78, with Napheesa Collier putting up 32 points.

Leading the WNBA with 85.9 ppg, 47.5% FG, 24.5 assists/game, and stingy defense at 75.9 ppg allowed.

No listed injuries—full-strength going into this one.

Las Vegas Aces (5–5)

Celebrated star A’ja Wilson remains in concussion protocol, missing a third straight outing.

Without her, LV is averaging 80.8 ppg, shooting just 38.9%, and committing 15.9 turnovers/game — last in the league in assists.

Crew is leaning on Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, all scoring 16+ points in recent games; Loyd shooting 54% FG recently.

Matchups to Watch

Collier vs. Aces Frontcourt

Collier leads the league with 26.1 ppg and 8.8 rpg. With Wilson out, Lynx dominate interior advantage.

Lynx Ball Movement vs. Aces Turnovers

Minnesota averages 24.5 assists/game; Las Vegas turns it over ~13 times/game. Heat on LV to protect the ball or risk blowout

Aces vs. Lynx Prediction

Minnesota’s offensive firepower + sharp ball distribution + Aces’ missing star = mismatch.

Expect Lynx to grab early control, push tempo, and dominate interior/exterior.

That said, I’m not going to lay the points in this one. I expect Minnesota to get up big and cruise to a comfortable lead, but one that won’t hold up enough to cash the over.

Aces vs. Lynx Prediction: UNDER 161.5