The Ottawa Senators open the 2026-27 season in Toronto on Saturday night. The Maple Leafs are already two games into their schedule. Toronto sits at -117 on the moneyline, Ottawa is -103, and the total is posted at 6.0. Neither crease is settled, and the public is heavily on one side of this one. Here is how we handicapped the Battle of Ontario opener, and the two bets that came out of it.
Last Updated: October 3, 2026
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs — Game Info
| Where | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto Ontario |
| When | October 3 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, ESPN+ |
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Start in the creases, because neither one is set. Ottawa is expected to go with Linus Ullmark. He went 28-12-8 last season with a 2.73 goals-against average and a .891 save percentage over 49 games. He was sharper in the playoffs, stopping shots at a .932 clip across four games against Carolina. Toronto projects Anthony Stolarz, who turned aside 27 of 28 shots against the New York Islanders on Wednesday. His full 2025-26 line was less flattering at 10-10-3, a 3.28 goals-against average and a .893 save percentage. Sergei Bobrovsky opened the season in the Toronto net and saved 87.5% of what he faced. Neither start is confirmed, so treat both reads as provisional.
The gap in team quality is wider than the price suggests. Ottawa finished last season with 99 points and a fifth-place finish in the Atlantic before Carolina swept them in the first round. Toronto finished last in the division at 32-36-14. The process numbers were just as lopsided. The Senators allowed 24.4 shots per game, third fewest in the league, while the Maple Leafs allowed 32.4, the most of any team. MoneyPuck credited Ottawa with 55.6% of five-on-five expected goals and Toronto with 45.6%.
Both rosters changed shape over the summer. Ottawa traded captain Brady Tkachuk to Florida and named Thomas Chabot its new captain. Toronto hired Jim Hiller as head coach, sent Matthew Knies to Columbus for Kirill Marchenko and signed Sergei Bobrovsky. Defenseman Artem Zub remains out for Ottawa with a knee injury. Jake Sanderson practiced Friday and is expected to play, while Andre Burakovsky skated in a non-contact jersey.
Special teams cut in opposite directions. Ottawa’s power play clicked at 24.0% last season against a Toronto penalty kill that held at 81.2%. The reverse matchup favors the visitors by a wider margin. Toronto’s power play converted 21.3% while Ottawa killed only 75.7%, one of the weaker marks in the league. Toronto’s unit has started slowly this season at 1-for-7. Ottawa, for its part, has no 2026-27 sample at all.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senators | +1.5 (-270) | -103 | O 6.0 (-117) |
| Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+220) | -117 | U 6.0 (-103) |
Odds accurate as of October 3, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Senators | 41% | 59% | Maple Leafs |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
That split is where this game gets interesting. Toronto holds 59% of puck-line tickets and 81% of two-way tickets, yet the number has gone the other way. The Maple Leafs opened at -128 and now sit at -117. Ottawa opened at +107 and is now -103. Tickets piling onto one side while the price shortens on the other is reverse line movement, the strongest single market signal available. The total has drifted mildly as well, with the under moving from +100 to -103.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction — Ottawa Starts a New Era Without Brady Tkachuk
Ottawa was the better team in this rivalry last season, and it was not close. The Senators took three of the four regular-season meetings and won the last three in a row. The most recent was a 3-1 decision at Canadian Tire Centre on April 15. Tim Stützle drove that group with 83 points in 80 games, and Drake Batherson added 71. Both are back, and so is the defensive structure that held opponents to 24.4 shots a night under Travis Green.
The case against is real. Tkachuk was the heartbeat of that team and the net-front presence on the power play. Replacing 22 goals in 60 games is not a formality. Toronto also added talent. Marchenko put up 67 points in Columbus last season and now skates on the top line. Darren Raddysh posted 70 in Tampa Bay and quarterbacks the first power-play unit from the blue line. Ottawa is cold on top of that. The Senators have not played a competitive game since September 26, while Toronto has two results and a full practice week behind it. Rust shows up early in hockey, and Scotiabank Arena is not a forgiving place to shake it off.
Still, the market is doing the talking here. Roughly four in five bettors have backed the home side, and the home price has shortened anyway. That pattern usually means the money and the ticket count disagree. The research says the same thing. Ottawa finished 21 points clear of Toronto last season and holds a five-on-five expected-goals edge of roughly ten percentage points. Neither team has a schedule disadvantage tonight, so the rust angle is the only situational factor in play. The one caveat is timing. The best number is gone, so what is left is the read rather than the value.
The Pick: Senators Full-Game Moneyline (-103)
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction — What Happened to Nylander’s Line Against the Islanders?
Toronto’s second line has not found its footing. The John Tavares, William Nylander and Gavin McKenna trio was outshot 19-3 against the Islanders. Hiller kept them together rather than break them up. The power play is 1-for-7, with Marchenko still learning an unfamiliar bumper role. Toronto has scored exactly two goals in each of its first two games. The early defensive signs are better, though. The Maple Leafs have allowed 25.5 shots per game through two outings, a sharp improvement on last season. Ottawa, meanwhile, conceded 2.99 goals per game behind the third-stingiest shot volume in the league.
The other side deserves a hearing. Both projected starters finished last season below .900. Ottawa’s penalty kill ran at 75.7%, and three of the four meetings last season produced seven goals or more. A tie after 60 minutes guarantees at least one more goal on the scoreboard. A trailing team pulling its goaltender late also turns one-goal games into two-goal games more often than casual bettors expect. Even so, the market drift and Toronto’s quiet top six tip this one for us.
The Pick: Under 6.0 Full-Game Total (-103)
Our Final Word on Senators vs. Maple Leafs
Both plays lean on the same foundation, so size them accordingly. Each assumes Ottawa’s defensive structure shows up on night one and that the projected goaltenders actually start. If Toronto confirms Bobrovsky instead of Stolarz, the total read loosens more than the side read does. Our Islanders vs. Maple Leafs preview and Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs preview cover how Toronto looked in its first two outings.
We are on the Senators full-game moneyline at -103, because the line is moving against four-fifths of the tickets on the better team. We are also on under 6.0 at -103, because Ottawa suppresses shots as well as almost any team in the league. Toronto’s top six has managed only four goals in two games.
NHL Senators vs. Maple Leafs FAQ: October 3, 2026
What time does the Senators vs. Maple Leafs game start?
Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 3, 2026, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. It is the Senators’ first game of the 2026-27 regular season and the Maple Leafs’ third. Toronto has already hosted Montreal and the New York Islanders at home.
What channel is the Senators vs. Maple Leafs game on?
Sportsnet carries the game in Canada, and ESPN+ streams it in the United States as part of the NHL Power Play package. Coverage lines up with the 7:00 PM ET puck drop. Regional Sportsnet feeds are also listed for this broadcast window.
Where are the Senators and Maple Leafs playing?
The game is at Scotiabank Arena, 40 Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario. It is the Maple Leafs’ home building and hosted two of the four regular-season meetings between these clubs last season. Ottawa went 1-1 in Toronto across that pair of visits.
Who won the last meeting between the Senators and Maple Leafs?
Ottawa won 3-1 at Canadian Tire Centre on April 15, 2026, the final regular-season meeting of 2025-26. That result capped a run of three straight Senators wins in the series. Toronto’s only win in the set came back in December.
What is the season series record between the Senators and Maple Leafs?
Ottawa won three of the four regular-season meetings in 2025-26. Toronto took the December 27 game 7-5 at home. Ottawa then answered with a 5-2 win in Toronto, a 5-2 win at home and the 3-1 win in April. Saturday opens the 2026-27 series.
Where do the Senators and Maple Leafs stand in the standings?
Toronto is fourth in the Atlantic Division at 1-1-0 with two points through two games. Ottawa is fifth with no points, because the Senators have not played yet. Boston leads the division with four points, and Florida sits second with three.