Our Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction covers a Saturday night game where the standings and the last meeting tell opposite stories. Edmonton arrives first in the Pacific Division at 14-3-3. Toronto sits seventh in the Atlantic after five straight regulation losses at home. Still, the Maple Leafs routed the Oilers in Edmonton three weeks ago, and the Oilers carry only a modest moneyline price. Below, we work through both creases, the injury list and the special teams. Then we land on two plays.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs — Game Info
| Where | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto Ontario |
| When | November 14 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, NHL Network |
Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Start in the crease, because neither starter was confirmed Saturday morning. Daily Faceoff projects Devon Levi for Edmonton and Anthony Stolarz for Toronto, and both are listed as unconfirmed. Treat this read as provisional until the morning skates settle it. Levi is 8-1-0 with a 2.75 goals-against average and a .899 save percentage. Tristan Jarry is 5-1-3 with a 2.50 GAA, a .908 save percentage and two shutouts. Edmonton also plays in Philadelphia on Sunday. Either way, the gap between its two goaltenders is small.
Toronto’s crease carries more risk. Stolarz is 5-3-0 with a 2.90 GAA and a .900 save percentage. However, the alternative is weaker. Sergei Bobrovsky is 3-8-2 with a 3.47 GAA and an .881 save percentage. As a team, Toronto is allowing more than 3.5 goals per game.
The form lines split hard. Edmonton has won three straight, including a 3-2 overtime win over Philadelphia on Wednesday that we broke down in our Flyers vs. Oilers prediction. The Oilers are 7-0-1 on the road and had two days off before opening a six-game trip here. Meanwhile, Toronto had one day off after Thursday’s 5-2 loss to Minnesota. The Leafs are 3-7-0 over their last 10 and 4-8-1 at Scotiabank Arena. The skid includes the 6-3 home loss covered in our Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Still, the underlying numbers are closer than the standings. Both MoneyPuck and Hockey Reference have each team below 50 percent of expected goals at 5-on-5. Toronto sits further underwater, but Edmonton’s finishing and goaltending have outrun its shot share. That is the case for the Leafs, along with Toronto’s 7-2 win at Rogers Place on October 24.
Injuries tilt the other way. Morgan Rielly was listed day-to-day with a lower-body injury on Tuesday, and he has missed the last three games. Colton Sissons is out week-to-week, and Kirill Marchenko has not played since October 26. Special teams are a split. Edmonton’s power play converts 33.3 percent of the time, but its penalty kill sits at 76.9 percent. Toronto runs above 27 percent on the power play and above 85 percent on the kill.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | -1.5 (+163) | -147 | O 6.5 (-135) |
| Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-190) | +127 | U 6.5 (+115) |
Odds accurate as of November 14, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Oilers | 61% | 39% | Maple Leafs |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction — Can Toronto Stop Bleeding 29 Shots a Night?
The cleanest edge on this board sits in one player’s shot volume rather than the full-game side. Leon Draisaitl has 78 shots on goal through 20 games, close to four a night. He has reached four or more in 11 of those games, including each of his last five. He also put seven shots on Stolarz in October and scored twice.
Toronto’s defense feeds that read. The Maple Leafs allow 29.3 shots per game, and they have done it lately with Rielly out of the lineup. In addition, Edmonton’s power play converts 33.3 percent of the time, so every Toronto penalty adds more looks. A simple rate model built on his season average clears this price’s break-even rate by a few points. That is before any credit for the opponent.
The risk is usage. A lopsided score could lead Edmonton to sit back, and Draisaitl managed only two shots in consecutive games in late October. A heavy shot-blocking night from Toronto would also cut into the count. Props carry no line history, so the market offers no confirmation either way. That makes this a lean built on volume, and the edge is modest.
The Pick: Leon Draisaitl 4+ Shots on Goal Prop (-106)
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction — A Five-Game Home Skid Meets a Road Team Without a Regulation Loss
Edmonton has not lost in regulation on the road, and all seven of its road wins came by two goals or more. Toronto’s last four losses also came by at least two goals. The total sits at 6.5, which prices in plenty of scoring rather than a one-goal grind. Empty-net goals matter here as well. A trailing team pulls its goaltender late, and that routinely turns a one-goal game into a two-goal game.
The market is not fully on board, however. Edmonton drew 61 percent of the puck-line bets, yet its moneyline drifted from -150 to -147, a small move toward Toronto. The puck line itself has not moved since it opened. That is a mild warning, not a reversal, but it leaves this read without market confirmation. Toronto also won the first meeting by five goals. Extra time is another risk, since any overtime or shootout result is decided by one goal. Six of Edmonton’s 20 games have gone past regulation, compared with three of Toronto’s 21. The question is whether those road results justify needing a two-goal margin.
The Pick: Oilers -1.5 (+163)
Our Final Word on Oilers vs. Maple Leafs
This read comes down to Edmonton’s attack against a Toronto team that is missing three regulars and allowing plenty of shots. Both picks rest on that same input, so treat them as related rather than independent. Confirm the goaltenders before puck drop, since a surprise start in either crease changes the picture.
We passed on the total. It opened at 7 and now sits at 6.5, with the over carrying the juice, so the market now charges more for a seven-goal game. Toronto’s games have reached seven goals in 12 of 21, and Edmonton’s have done it in 10 of 20. On the other hand, Edmonton averages only 25.5 shots per game, and Jarry has posted two shutouts this season. That leaves the over priced close to its base rate, with no edge worth chasing.
Leon Draisaitl 4+ Shots on Goal at -106 is our top play, backed by nearly four shots per game against a defense allowing 29.3. Oilers -1.5 at +163 is the second, because all seven Edmonton road wins this season have come by two goals or more.