Anybody whose fantasy football playoff run still includes Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco has a big problem: They aren\’t all that important to the Bengals\’ playoff run.
Of course they do play crucial roles in Cincinnati\’s offense, just not in that statistical way that\’s ever-so important to fantasy geeks. The Bengals are 8-3, dominating their division and apparently playoff-bound thanks to that age-old formula of running the ball and playing good defense.
Palmer and Ochocinco could bounce back this week against Detroit\’s NFL-worst pass defense, but the Bengals have shown they\’d just rather not throw. In last week\’s win over the Browns – who also have a terrible pass defense – Cincinnati ran almost twice as much as they passed. They went for more than 200 yards on the ground while Palmer put up a JaMarcus Russell-like 110 yards passing and Ochocinco was nonexistent. Over the past four games, Palmer has two TD passes and two 100-yard games. Ochocinco is averaging four catches and hasn\’t scored in that stretch.
Now that Cedric Benson is coming back from a hip injury, and Larry Johnson and rookie Bernard Scott have proven they can handle a heavy load, the Bengals have even less reason to throw. All three could get work in those key fantasy playoff games of Week 14 and Week 15, when the Bengals face the Chargers\’ No. 21 run defense and the Chiefs\’ No. 27 run defense.
While you wonder what Ochocinco will do to get himself on TV without catching the ball, here are some players to consider starting and some to sit in Week 13:
QUARTERBACKS
TAKE A SHOT:
-It\’s safe to say Houston\’s Matt Schaub goes for 300 yards and three TDs against Jacksonville, since that\’s what he\’s done the last two times he faced the Jags. (This is a defense that just made Alex Smith look perfect, after all.)
-Most fantasy players have rightfully given up on Seattle\’s Matt Hasselbeck, but he tends to perform much better at home. He\’s had multiple TDs or a 300-yard game in three of his four home games. And the 49ers, although improved, still rank 28th against the pass.
-While it\’s fun to kick Chicago\’s Jay Cutler around, he can manufacture stats against poor defenses like the Rams. Cutler had three scores against Seattle and Arizona, two against Detroit and Atlanta.
s, and the Panthers appear to be in give-up mode.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT:
Please, in the name of Akili Smith, don\’t start these guys:
-Forget Eli Manning\’s 330-yard, two-score game against the Cowboys earlier this season. Since then, the Giants\’ offense has fallen apart and the Cowboys\’ defense has stiffened.
-Jacksonville\’s David Garrard appears to be out of the TD business, with just eight on the season. He especially avoids the end zone against Houston, with just two scores in his last three games against the Texans.
-The Vince Young magical comeback story\’s a great one, but it just may take a week off. The unbeaten Colts have been mediocre defensively, but have still only allowed only nine TD passes this year.
RUNNING BACKS
ALL DAY LONG:
-Overthinker Alert: Baltimore\’s Ray Rice faces Green Bay\’s No. 1 defense on the road and hasn\’t scored in two straight games, but he\’s what makes the Ravens\’ offense go and should never be benched.
-Nobody\’s given up more rushing touchdowns than the Raiders\’ 17, so look for a huge day from Pittsburgh\’s Rashard Mendenhall. Ben Roethlisberger is supposed to be back, and he may want to take it easy and hand off a lot.
yards a game.
-Marion Barber was never the most elusive guy, and now he\’s looking like the least dangerous Dallas back. Yet the New York defense had deteriorated much more than Barber, whose only 100-yard game of the year was against the Giants.
RED FLAGS:
-In other formerly punishing runner news, keep the Giants\’ Brandon Jacobs on the bench until that disaster of a running game is fixed. (How is it that he ran everybody over last year and gets knocked over with relative ease this year?)
-If Julius Jones comes back from injury for the Seahawks, make sure to bench the explosive Justin Forsett. (Coach Jim Mora, apparently opposed to explosive running backs, has said Jones will be starter again when he returns.)
-Don\’t get caught up in that Falcons RB confusion unless Michael Turner is suddenly 100 percent healed. Nagging injuries plus three ball carriers is a bad combination.
WIDE RECEIVERS
THROW HIM THE DARN BALL:
-OK, it\’s again safe to start Denver\’s Brandon Marshall now that the threat of Chris Simms throwing to him appears to have passed. The Chiefs are the perfect opponent, too: Terrible pass defense but just enough of a scoring threat to keep Denver interested offensively.
-Chris Redman starts at QB for Atlanta, but Roddy White\’s still perfectly safe to start. Redman was smart enough to throw White\’s way several times, including for the game-winning TD.
-Jason Avant seems to be immune from the trend of Eagles receivers rarely putting up good stats on consecutive weeks. He\’s averaging about 90 yards with a score the past three weeks, and the Falcons don\’t play good pass defense.
-Minnesota\’s Percy Harvin, coming off his first career 100-yard game and his third score in four outings, should keep it going. The Cardinals\’ pass defense has allowed a league-worst 52 plays of 20 yards or more.
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH:
-Speaking of the Cardinals, if Kurt Warner\’s out again don\’t start any of his receivers. Arizona couldn\’t get much going last week with Matt Leinart, and he wasn\’t even running away from Jared Allen and the other Vikings who lead the league in sacks.
-That\’s it for Seattle\’s T.J. Houshmandzadeh. A 14-yard game against the Rams means permanent benching (especially because his vanishing act cost me a game in a fantasy league).
-Don\’t get too excited about Mark Clayton\’s 129-yard game for Baltimore. He still doesn\’t have a TD since before Halloween, and the Ravens will probably return to their Derrick Mason-only passing attack.
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FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST: RB Larry Johnson (107 yards rushing), WR Kenny Britt (128 yards, TD), RB Chris Brown (TD), WR Jason Avant (94 yards), QB Chris Redman (2 TDs, starting this week), RB Jerious Norwood (TD, maybe starting if Michael Turner\’s out?), QB Josh Freeman (2 TDs), RB Justin Fargas (63 yards).
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WHAT DO I KNOW?
Big Hits: I expected good things for Alex Smith (2 TDs), Terrell Owens (96 yards, TD) and Pierre Thomas (TD). I expected more good times for old guys Ricky Williams (115 yards, TD) and Thomas Jones (TD).
Big Misses: There were many, including my last-ever suggestions to start Brandon Jacobs (27 yards) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (14 yards). I expected good things from Chad Ochocinco (38 yards) and Vincent Jackson (27 yards), but not much from Jamaal Charles (93 yards, TD) and Roddy White (TD).
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