Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Can Kansas City Win Big at Home?

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The Houston Texans head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional round on Saturday afternoon. Houston finished the season with a 10-7 record and a 5-4 road record. Kansas City took a 15-2 record into a first round bye and was a perfect 8-0 on their home field. They are currently 8.5 point home favorites with this Texans vs. Chiefs matchup set to kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET.   

Game Matchup & Betting Odds

Houston Texans (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) o/u 41.5

4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 18, 2025

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO 

TV: ESPN

Public Betting: Public Bettors Leaning Chiefs

As of this writing, our NFL Public Betting page shows that 55% of bets are on Kansas City. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.

Houston Texans

The Texans took on the Chargers in the Wild Card round and won 32-12. C.J. Stroud completed 22 of 33 pass attempts for 282 yards along with a touchdown and an interception. Joe Mixon got going on the ground taking 25 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown. Nico Collins had 7 receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. Mixon and John Metchie each lost fumbles. The defense finished with 4 interceptions and only allowed 2.8 yards per carry. They also had 4 sacks.

Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is questionable but logged two limited practices to end the week. He will most likely find the field on Saturday in a win or go home matchup. Joe Mixon suffered an injury and was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday before a DNP on Thursday. He remains questionable but Ian Rapaport reported that he has a very real chance to play on Saturday.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs lost their last game of the season 38-0 to the Denver Broncos. Kansas City had nothing to play for and rested all of their stars while Denver needed to win to get into the playoffs. That means that many of the key players on the Chiefs haven’t played a live down of football since Christmas day when they beat the Steelers 29-10. Patrick Mahomes threw for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns in that matchup. Travis Kelce had 84 yards and a touchdown and Xavier Worthy finished with 79 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City finished with 5 sacks and an interception. 

Houston is 4-4-1 ATS in their last 9 road games

The OVER is 4-1 in Houston’s last 5 road games against Kansas City

Kansas City is 3-5 ATS in their last 8 home games

The OVER is 5-0 in Kansas City’s last 5 games against Houston

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction:

I like the Chiefs in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. I’m just not convinced that this Texans team has all of a sudden come to life just because of the outcome against the Chargers. Houston punted 4 times and turned the ball over 3 times in that game. The offense only found the end zone twice. 7 of the Texans points came off of a pass that went straight through Ladd McConkey’s hands and was returned for a touchdown. The next drive a ball bounced right off of Will Dissly’s hands and was intercepted and returned to the 13 yard line. The Texans offense netted 1 yard gain and kicked a field goal off of that great field position. And Houston got 2 points off of a blocked extra point return. The Chargers beat themselves a lot in this matchup. 

Nico Collins had 122 receiving yards in that matchup and the next highest receiver was Xavier Hutchinson whose only reception came on the botched snap late in the 2nd quarter. I think Steve Spagnuolo and his 4th ranked defense that allows just 19 points per game will take away Collins and force the other receivers to make plays.  I know Kansas City has played close games all season and is only 3-5 ATS at home this season. But this is the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in the divisional round throwing for 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in those 6 games with an 87.5 QBR. Last season, the Texans won big at home in the wild card round beating Cleveland 45-14. In the Divisional? They got smacked by Baltimore 34-10 on the road. Kansas City is the better team and I think they dominate in this matchup.           

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs -8.5

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