With such an expansive prop market to sort through when it comes to Super Bowl LVIII, which odds offer bettors some of the best value ahead of tonight’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff between the 49ers and Chiefs? Here are our five best prop predictions for Super Bowl LVIII.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
101 San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) vs. 102 Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5); o/u 47.5
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 11, 2024
Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
49ers vs. Chiefs: Public Bettors Still Hammering KC
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 68% of public bettors are currently backing the Chiefs when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Prediction: Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 Pass Attempts
The future Hall of Famer has recorded 37-plus pass attempts in six out of his last seven games overall, averaging 39.4 per game over that span. He’s also recorded at least 37 pass attempts in seven out of his last eight games when the Chiefs are an underdog, with an average of 39.0 per game.
Worried about San Francisco’s defense? Don’t be, especially not with the way the Niners defense performed in their two playoff games last month. Nevertheless, Mahomes has recorded at least 37 pass attempts in eight out of his last nine games against a top-10 defense, averaging a whopping 43.4 attempts per game in that scenario.
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Prediction: Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
Pacheco has rushed for 68-plus yards in four out of his last five playoff games, averaging 70.8 rushing yards per game in that span. He’s also rushed for 68-plus yards in five out of his last six games against a team with a winning record, averaging 85.3 YPG in that scenario. He has eclipsed 68 yards in four out of his last five games overall (84.6 per game average), in four out of his last five games after the Chiefs win (76.4 average) and in four out of his last five games after Kansas City covered.
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Prediction: Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions
Despite the odds being juiced to the over, this is still the best bet when it comes to this prop. Kelce caught seven or more receptions in six out of his last seven games in the playoffs, averaging 9.0 receptions per contest during that span. He also hauled in seven or more passes in five out of his last seven games (7.7 per game) when the Chiefs were listed as an underdog and in five out of his last seven games following a Kansas City cover (8.0 receptions per game).
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Prediction: Deebo Samuel under 58.5 Receiving Yards
Samuel has produced 60 or more receiving yards in just three of his last 11 games in the playoffs, with an averaging of just 55 yards per game over that span. He’s also produced 60 receiving yards just once in his last six games (44.3 yards per game average) and in one of his last six games when the Niners were favored (44.3). Finally, Samuel has racked up 60 or more receiving yards in one of his last six games when facing a top-10 defense (36.5 per game).
Super Bowl LVIII: Christian McCaffrey Over 91.5 Rushing Yards
McCaffrey has rushed for 92 or more yards in six out of his last eight games, averaging 102.8 rushing yards per game during that span. He’s also rushed for at least 92 yards in five out of his last six games following a San Francisco win (110.0 average) and in six out of out of the last eight times San Francisco was favored (102.8 average).